Ukuhlolwa kombono womphakathi sekuye kwaba yindawo yemikhankaso yanamuhla yezombangazwe, ithonya yonke into kusukela ekuhlolweni kwemithombo yezindaba kuya ekuvoteni. Ithonya lawo lidlulela ngalé kombiko wendlela elula yokuthola amahhashi; ukuhlola ukuma kokusebenza, ukunikeza izinqumo ezingaphakathi, futhi kungaguqula ngisho nomphumela weziqu ze-primmistry nokhetho oluvamile. Ukuqonda indlela lezi ziphengululo ezisebenza ngayo, lapho zifinyela khona, nokuthi imiphumela yazo ihamba kanjani ngenqubo yokhetho lwe-democratic.

Uyini Umbono Womphakathi?

Ekuhlolweni okuyinhloko, ukuhlolwa kombono womphakathi kuklanyelwe ukulinganisela izimo zengqondo, izinkolelo, noma izintando zomphakathi othile. Emkhakheni wokhetho, ngokuvamile babuza ngokusekela okuza kuqala, ukukhipha imibandela noma ukugunyaza. Umgomo ukulinganisela imibono yabo bonke abantu abavotayo ngokuxoxa ngesibonelo esikhethwe ngokucophelela. Ukuhlola kwesayensi kuxhomeke emananini alindelekile, lapho wonke amalungu abantu abahloselwe ukuba abe nethuba elaziwayo lokukhethwa. Lendlela, uma ibulawa ngokufanelekile, ivumela abavoti ukuba babale imingcele yephutha futhi benze izibalo ezisemthethweni.

Umlando wokuhlola u-Franklin D. Roosevelt uqala ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-20, owaziwayo kakhulu nge- Literary Digest yenhlekelele ka-193], lapho ukuhlola okukhulu kodwa okungafaneki nokwe-otherns kwakubikezelwe ukuthi i-Alf Landon iyakunqoba uFranklin D. Roosevelt. Isimiso esiyisisekelo: ukuhlola okungcono, okungokolwazi olungcono kakhulu kunikeza umbono wasobala, ukuqinisekisa ukubaluleka kwe-esayensi. Namuhla, ukuhlola kuye kwavela ukuhlanganisa izingxoxo zocingo, i-inthanethiyubhusayithi, kanye nezindlela eziyinkimbinkimbi zokulungisa i-skewskews. Nokho isimiso esiyisisekelo sisalokhu: ukuhlola kahle-umthetho womphakathi ngesikhathi esiphakathini, kodwa asinike ukuvumisa indlela yokuzi kahle yokuzihlela esikhathini esizayo.

Indima Yezinhlansi Ezikongweni Nasemithonjeni

Izinhlolo zifeza imisebenzi eminingi phakathi nomjikelezo wokhetho. Kulabo abafuna ukuvota, bayinqubo yokuthola impendulo eyembula ukuthi imiphi imiyalezo ezwakalayo, inombolo edinga ukunakwa, nokuthi iziphi izikhangiso noma izenzakalo ziyizinombolo ezinyakazayo. Imikhankaso ivame ukuqhuba izinhlolo zangaphakathi .Imikhankaso yokuhlola komuntu siqu ekhokhwa ngomkhankaso (*) ukuhlola izindlela zokuhlela nokuhlela imithombo yemali. Imithombo yezindaba, ukuhlola kunikeza isikhombo: ophezulu, owehlayo, nowezinhlanga ezincintisanayo. Lokhu, kuveza umbono womphakathi futhi kungathonya izisebenzi zokuzithandela, nevoti ngokwazo.

Kubantu abaqashelwayo, ukuhlola kuthatha indima engcono ngoba imincintiswano yokuhlola ayinayo imibandela ecacile ehlanganisa ukuvota okuvamile. Ukuhlola kwakuqala kungadala ibala “elingaphambili” elidonsa ukunakekela kwemithombo yezindaba, ukugunyazwa, nokugunyazwa kwezimali. Ngokuphambene, umfundi ohluleka ukufinyelela umnyango othile wokuhlola angase akhishwe ezimpikiswaneni zokuphikisana (njengoba iDemocratic National Committee yenza ngo-2020), akha umjikelezo oyingozi owehlisa insimu ngaphambi kokuba abavoti abaningi banikeze ukunakekela. Ngakho amaphutha awamane nje abonise umbono womphakathi kumaPrism.

Izinhlobo Zombono Womphakathi Ziyasiphazamisa

Ukulandelela Izintuthwane

Ukuhlola kuphindaphindwa ukuhlola okwenziwa ezinsukwini ezilandelanayo, ngokuvamile kusetshenziswa isilinganiso esiqengqelekayo semininingwane yamuva ukulungisa ukuguquguquka kwansuku zonke. Kuvumela imikhankaso nezingqapheli ukuba zilinganisele imikhakha elawulayo esekelayo, ukusabela ezimpikiswaneni, amahlazo, noma izenzakalo ezinkulu zezindaba. Ukuhlola okudumile kakhulu ukulandelela i- i-Daily Racholing[, kodwa iziteshishi eziningi manje ziveza izinguqulo zazo phakathi nenkathi yokukhetha ephakeme.

I - Benechmark Ne - Baseline

I-Benchmark iphenya iqala ngomkhankaso wokumisa lapho umbhalisa eme khona ngokuhlobene nabaphikisi futhi yiziphi izimpikiswano ezibaluleke kakhulu kubavoti. Lokhu kuhlola kuzisa icebo lomkhankaso kusukela ekuqaleni. Izinguqulo zomphakathi zokuhlola ibhentshi, ezikhishwe yizinhlangano zezezindaba, nazo zihlela ukuqonda kokuqala kwamandla omfundi (ngokuvamile) phambi kokuba abavoti abaningi bezwe ngisho nangomphikisi.

Izinhlansi Zokuphuma

Izindawo zokuvota zenza umuntu nge-Ecostation Day ngaphandle kwezindawo ezikhethiwe, zibuza abavoti ukuthi bafaka kanjani amavoloti abo nesizathu. Zinikeza imikhondo esheshayo ngemiphumela ngaphambi kokuba izibalo zezikhulu ziqedwe futhi zinikeze imininingwane yenani labantu eyigugu(ukubonisa, ngokwesibonelo, ukuthi ubudala obuhlukene noma amaqembu ezinhlanga akhetha kanjani. Nokho, ukuvota okuphumayo kuye kwabhekana nezimpikiswano ezandayo ngenxa yokukhuphuka kokuvota nokunqaba, kuholela emihlanganweni ukuba izikhulu eziqondisa izibalo zokuzinakekela ngokuqapha okwengeziwe.

Ukushushisa Impova

Ukuhlola okuphoqelelwe akukona ukuhlola okuqotho kodwa uhlobo lwezinsolo zezombangazwe ezifihlekile njenge-computer. Umshayeli ubuza imibuzo eholayo, ngokuvamile enokwaziswa okungamanga noma okudukisayo, eklanyelwe ukuguqula umbono wovoti. Ngokwesibonelo, ukuphenya okuphoqelelwe kungase kubuze, “Uma wazi ukuthi u-X umangalelwe ngokukhwabanisa, ingabe usengavotela?” Lokhu akuvunyelwe ngokomthetho kwezinye izizwe futhi kulahlwa kakhulu umphakathi wokucwaninga.

Izinsalela Zotshani Nezinhlansi Eziyingozi

Ukuhlola okungahleliwe, amavoti angokwesayensi ngokuvamile athathwa emicimbini yedili noma kuyi-internet. Angadala ukuxoxisana kwemithombo yezindaba kodwa awanazibalo. Kwesinye isiphetho salokhu kuhlola, kuletha isampula eliyiphutha labavoti lapho bexoxa ngendaba ethile, belinganisa indlela imibono eshintsha ngayo ngemva kokuchayeka elwazini olulinganiselwe. Nakuba ingavamile kwezombangazwe ezikhethiwe, banikeza umbono kulokho ongochwepheshe angase anqume.

Ithonya Lezinhlansi Emkhubeni Womsindo

Kuhlolwe kakhulu ukuthi ithonya lenhlolo - vo kubantu ngabanye likhona. Kuxoxwa kakhulu ngemiphumela emithathu eyinhloko:

Umphumela Wama - bangwagon

Lapho ukuhlola kubonisa umbhalisa ngaphambili kakhulu, abanye abavoti bangahehela kumuntu ocatshangelwayo ophumelele, kungaba ngenxa yokuthi bafuna ukusekela ongase anqobe noma ngoba bafuna ukuba ohlangothini oluwinayo. Lokhu kungadala umjikelezo wokuzihlolela: izinombolo ezinamandla ziholela ekusekeleni okwengeziwe, okube sekunyusa izinombolo ngisho nangaphezulu. Imiphumela ivezwa ikakhulukazi kubavoti abazimisele kakhulu abasebenzisa ukuma kokuhlola njengelungu elifuna ukuzikhethela.

Umphumela Wangaphansi Komthetho

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthatha umuntu ozohlolwa kungadonsa ukusekela kozwela ngezinye izikhathi. Abavoli bangathatha imuva kwe-diog @ project ngenxa yesifiso sokuncintisana noma ngenxa yokuthi banomuzwa wokuthi ozongenela i-costagon uyaxoshwa ngokungafanele. Lokhu akuguquguquki kakhulu kune-crawagon kodwa kuye kwaphawulwa emincintiswaneni eminingana eyinhloko lapho igagasi lemuva livumela umuntu ohamba phambili ukuba angene.

Ukunganaki Nokusebenza Ngemisebenzi Efanelekayo

Lapho ukuhlola kubonisa ukudilika komhlaba, abanye abasekeli be-aperse bahlala ekhaya, becabanga ukuthi ukuvota kwabo akudingekile. Okwamanje, abasekeli bomfundi ohambayo bangase bahlale ekhaya, bekholelwa ukuthi umfundi wabo akanathuba. Lokhu okunamandla kungacindezela ukuphuma emijahweni engaziqhathaniselayo. Ngokungafani, uma ukuhlola kubonisa uhlanga oluseduze, umvoti uyakwazi ukwanda. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlola kungaqhubeki uvoteko oluqinile [ lwendlela yokuvota [] lapho uvota uvotelwa olusebenzayo lwe-icecece-ce-ce-mfont [[[[FLTY:1]] kunokuthi “ukhetha khona uvota wabo olusebenzayo kulokhu] ukuvota emdlalweni omude, isicimbiso esivamile ezindaweni eziningi.

Ithonya Ekukhetheni Okuyinhloko Nokusebenza Kwama - canode

Izindawo zokuvota zivundile ukuze zithonyeke ekuhloleni ngoba azinawo amandla aqinisayo okuthola ukuthi umbango ungowabantu ngendlela okhetho oluvamile oluwenza ngayo.

“ Imiphumela Ye - Iowa” Ne - cascades Engcolisayo

I-Iowa caucuuses ngokomlando iye yaba yindawo yokuhlola abazofundela ukuthatha i-owa, futhi ukuhlola okuholela ethonyeni elikhulu lemithombo yezindaba. Umfundi onyuka e-Iowa uthola imithombo yezindaba ekhululekile, khona - ke ethuthukisa ukuqashelwa kwesizwe, khona - ke okuthuthukisa ukuphenya kwesizwe, okuthi ngezinye izikhathi kubizwa ngokuthi ukungcolisa ingqushushushu ye-. Ngo-200, ukuphakama kwemiphetho e-Iowaowao, ngemva kokuhlola kwe-Jefferson Dhack Never kwaba yi-odroestle ekhuliswe ngemithombo yezindaba ehlanganisa ukuthambekela, okunezela ekunqobeni kwakhe ekugcineni.

Ukuzinikela No - Elite Ukwenziwa Kwesinqumo

Abanikazi abaphambili bancike ekuhloleni ukuthi yikuphi abazokhokha imali. Umfundi obhalisa njalo iphesenti elilodwa lenani lokuhlola kwezwe uyozama ukuqongelela imali, okwenza kube nzima ukuncintisana. Iqembu elikhethekile (izikhulu ezimisiwe, izikhulu, imishini, namaqembu enzalo) abhekiswe ekuhloleni eduze ukuhlolwa ukuthi ubani okufanele avume noma asekele. Umphumela uwukuthi ukuphumelela kombhalisayo ngokuvamile kuchazwa kakhulu ngokuhlola okusungulwayo kunentshiseko yangempela yezotshani, okungenani ezingeni lokuqala.

Izikhala Zokwenezela Impikiswano

Kuyimijikelezo yamuva, izimpawu zempikiswano ziye zahlanganiswa nezikhawu zokuhlola komphakathi. Ngokwesibonelo, i-2020 Democratic eyinhloko edisc facel ukuze ifinyelele ku-1% okungenani kwezintathu ezifanelekele ukuhlolwa noma iminikelo evela kubantu abakhethekile abangu-65 000 ukuze bathathe isigaba sengxoxo. Lesimiso sanikeza ukuhlola amandla okugcina amasango enhlangano: abafuni ukuba bafake abahloli ekuhloleni baqini ngokunelisayo engxoxweni.

Izinselele Nokugxekwa Kokungcolisa

Kukho konke okunethonya layo, ukuhlola kuyimishini engaphelele. Iprofile enkulu yamuva iphuthelwa 2016-kakhulu kakhulu kukhetho luka-2020 luka-2020 oluvamile lwase-U.S., oluye lwabangela ukuhlolwa okukhulu kwemikhuba yokuhlola.

Ukuphonsa Izinhlamvu Nezokungahambisani Nezitho Zokholo

Ukunyenya kuxhomeke ekufinyeleleni isampula yabavoti. Kodwa amazinga okusabela aye ehla ngaphansi kwe 10% ekuhlolweni kocingo, okusho ukuthi labo abaphendulayo bangahluka ngokulandelana kwalabo abangaphenduli. Kuyi-intanethi, isampula ivame ukuhlotshaniswa nesivumelwano sezombangazwe. Abaholi bazama ukulungisa lokhu kucwasana ngokukhulu, kodwa ukuncintisana kuxhomeke ekwazisweni okuqondile ngomphakathi (ne-* futhi ukuthi inani labantu lishintsha ngokushesha ngokwezimo zomphakathi, imfundo, nezindlela zokuvota.

Imiphumela Yokubuza Nokuhleleka

Ukukhishwa kwenqwaba yemibuzo ngokuqondile kungayiguqula kakhulu imiphumela. Ngokwesibonelo, ukubuza “ngezindleko zikahulumeni” kanye“ nezici ezisemzileni wezemisebenzi” kuveza ukusabela okungafani. Ngokufanayo, indlela okubuzwa ngayo ingaba nokucabanga kwalabo ababuzwa. Abahloli bangaphambi kokuhlolwa kwemishini yabo, kodwa ngezinye izikhathi bathatha izikhangiso ezicuthayo ezidala ukungaqondi.

Inkinga Esaqala

Umbono womphakathi ungashintsha ngokushesha, ikakhulukazi ezinsukwini zokugcina zomkhankaso. Ukuhlola okwenziwa emasontweni amabili ngaphambi koSuku Lokhetho kungaphuthelwa isenzakalo esiqeda isikhathi noma i-litz yokukhangisa. Okunye ukuphenywa kokhetho kwamuva kuye kwathiwa kubangelwa ukuguquguquka kwamuva kwabavoti abangabanjwanga yizinhlolo zokukhetha zangaphambi kosuku.

Ukuzithemba Ngokweqile Nesakhelo Sehhashi

Mhlawumbe ukugxeka okukhulu kuwukuthi ukuhlola kukhuthaza ukugxila komjaho wamahhashi owenziwe ungayidingi ingxoxo enzima yesimiso. Uma zonke izingxenye zezindaba ziholela “izindaba ziboshelwe ku 47%,” abavoti baphucwa ukwaziswa ngezindaba, amarekhodi, nefilosofi ebusayo. Abavoti balungisa ukudlulisa kwabo ukuze bahlele izinombolo zokuhlola ngokufanele kunokuba bafundise noma banxenxele kulokhu okuhle.

Ukwanda Kokungcolisa Nokungahambisani Nezindaba

Umkhuba wokuphenya ngempoqo uye wasetshenziswa emijikelezweni yamuva, nemikhankaso yokusebenzisa ama - rodocall ne - SMS ukuze kusakazwe ukwaziswa okungekuhle ngokuzisholo ukucwaninga. INhlangano ye - American for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) iwulahla ngokuqinile lo mkhuba, futhi imibuso eminingana iye yakhipha imithetho edinga ukudalulwa kwezingcingo zezombangazwe.

Ukubheka ngokujulile indlela yokuhlola nezindlela ezingcono kakhulu, i-Pew Research Center yezindlela zekhasi inikeza izincazelo eziningiliziwe zomklamo nobunzima. I-APAOR ye-Ethics[ idweba izindinganiso ezingochwepheshe kubacwaningi bomphakathi.

Ukuhlola Izenzakalo: Izintuthwane Ezikhethweni Muva

Ukhetho Lwama - Presidenti Ka - 2016

Ukhetho luka 2016 luyisibonelo esikhonjiwe kakhulu sokwehluleka kokuhlola emlandweni wanamuhla. Ukuhlola kwesizwe kwabonisa u-Hillary Clinton ohola uDonald Trump cishe ngamaphuzu amathathu, futhi wawina ivoti ethandwayo ngamaphuzu 2.1 (ehlobene nokuhlola okuvamile). Kodwa ukuhlola okusesilinganisweni kukahulumeni e-Upper Midwath (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) kwakusobala ukuthi kwakuphunyukile, kunganake ukusekela kukaTrump phakathi kwencubebebenge-collegevvotor. Ukulahlekelwa kuthiwa yinhlanganisela yamaphutha asindayo, ubunzima bokujika amasampula, nokubulala i-Foffration ye-CORmp ezinsukwini zokugcina. Umphumela owohlolwayo nohohloliwe ekuhloleni futhi uholelwa ezinhleni ezinkulu.

Ukukhethwa Komongameli WaseU.S.

Izibalo zikazwelonke nezikahulumeni ngo-202020 zazinembe kakhulu kunangonyaka ka-2016, nesilinganiso sesizwe sesibonakaliso sikaJoe Biden cishe ngamaphuzu angu-8 [1] eduze kwengxenye yakhe yokunqoba lapho kubhekiswa ekuhlolweni iphutha elihleliwe lamaphuzu amathathu-4 emazweni amaningi. Nokho umphakathi ophendulile waphinde wabhekana nokugxekwa ngenxa yokulahlekelwa izinga lokusekela kukaTrump ezindaweni eziyinhloko njengaFlorida nase-Ohio. Isifundo esiyinhloko sasithi amaphutha okuhlola ngokuvamile ahlobene: izici ezifanayo ezibangela ukuphuthelwa kwamanye amazwe ngokunokwenzeka kubangela ukuphuthelwa ezinye iziqu zeqembu, ukwenza izibikezelo zeqembu-asekuqinisekiswe kakhulu kunezibalo. [FFFLTY:0] isiko se-mfashinishini ephambili [FLTY] [FFFFF:1]

2020 Isimiso Sentando Yeningi: Igagasi LePete Buttigieg

I-2020 Democratic fanekisa indlela ukuhlola kwakuqala okungadukisa ngayo. Maphakathi no-2019, uJoe Biden wahola kakhulu ezindaweni ezingu-30. Nokho, uPete Buttigieg wavela e-Iowa kacuuses cishe ngentambo eboshiwe noBernie Sanders, esenyuke ukusuka emananini ahlukene ekuhloleni kwesizwe ukuma ngokuncintisana phakathi kokuhlela nokuthatha izinkulumo eziqinile. Nokho, ukwehluleka kwakhe ukugqashuka emibonweni yesizwe ngemva kwe-Iowa (akazange adlulele ku-15% ngokwesizwe) kumiqathango yecebo likahulumeni kwezombangazwe zanamuhla.

2008 I - Democratic Primary: “Umphumela WeBradley” Inganekwane

IDemocratic eyinhloko phakathi kukaBarack Obama noHillary Clinton abahlolwa ukuhlola ikhono lokuthatha abantu abanobuhlanga. Abanye abahlaziyi babesaba “umphumela weBradley” [1] Abavoti abamhlophe ababebatshela abavoti ababezovota abaBlack abazoba yi-protom kodwa bese bevota umphikisi omhlophe. Eqinisweni, ukuhlola nokugcina kwabonisa ukuthi u-Obama wayevame ukwenza ngokulandelana ne-ast, besikisela ukuthi ubandlululo lwezenhlalo lwaluncintisana. Isenzakalo sabonisa ukuthi ukuvota imiphumela yokuvota i-hypothes enkathini eyodwa ingaguqulelwa kwenye.

Izinhlamvu Zobugebengu Nembobo Engcolisayo

Okhetho oluyinhloko ngokukhethekile lwembula indlela ukuhlola okungazenza ngayo zigcwalise. Umfundi ohola ezindaweni zokuqala uzuza ukuhlanganiswa kwemithombo yezindaba, okukhulisa ukuqashelwa kwegama, okuthi kamuva kuthuthukise izinombolo zokuhlola. Lokhu kwakha umjaho ophansi we-memo-ntry: abavoti bathembela ku-memoriciota yezinga lobulungu, ngisho noma isenzo sokuhlolwa kokuhlola komphakathi siqinisa kakhulu. Lokhu kwabonakala ku-2016 Republican lapho u-Donald Trump ehola njalo iziphetho naphezu kwezikhundla ezingavumelani ukuvotelelwa, njengoba i-header yakhe i-header ihamba nge-header esakaza isigijimi sakhe.

Ezinye izazi ziphikisa ngokuthi ukuhlola kunamandla kakhulu ezinkathini eziyinhloko kunasekukhethweni oluvamile ngenxa yokuthi abavoti banemifelandawonye ebuthakathaka futhi banokwaziswa okuncane.

Isiphetho

Ukuhlola komphakathi kungamathuluzi abalulekile okuqonda i-votorate, kodwa kuvela imingcele efuna ukuchazwa ngokucophelela. Azimane nje zilinganise umbono womphakathi .[1] Zisiza ekuyilolongeni, ikakhulukazi endaweni ephansi ye-information yokhetho oluyinhloko. I-cwagon, umsebenzi wokugcina amasango, umsebenzi wokuhlola izingosi, futhi ukudayisa kwe-ambulensi yehhashi ngemigomo, futhi i-metabula efuna konke kusho ukuthi ithonya elingenakulinganiswa enqubweni yedemo-demokrazi. Inselelekile yabavota, izintatheli, nabafuna ukuvota, futhi i-mfadi ngokufanayo kufanele isebenzise ukupheka okukodwa njengokunye kokungena phakathi kwabaningi, ngokungakaze kube kuthatha indawo yokucabanga ngokucophelela ngezindaba nabathathiwe. Izakhamuzi ezisazi kakhulu bayobheka ngaphezu kwezibalo, ukubuza ngenani elivamile, ukukala kwendlela, ukuhlola, ukuhlola, nokulinganisela kwanoma isiphi isikhathi sokuhlola okusanguluka, isiprofetho.