Examining the Successes and Failures of the Good Friday Agreement over the Past Two Decades

The Good Friday Agreement: Two Decades of Peacebuilding and Persistent Challenges

Signed on 10 April 1998, the Good Friday Agreement (also known as the Belfast Agreement) was heralded as a historic breakthrough in the Northern Ireland peace process. It ended decades of violent conflict, known as the Troubles, which had claimed over 3,500 lives. The agreement established a framework for power-sharing between unionists and nationalists, created cross-border institutions, and committed all parties to exclusively peaceful means. Over the past two-plus decades, its achievements and shortcomings have shaped the region’s political, economic, and social reality. This article examines the key successes and failures of the Good Friday Agreement, drawing on evidence and expert analysis to assess its enduring legacy.

Major Successes of the Good Friday Agreement

Ending Widespread Violence and Decommissioning Weapons

The most tangible success of the Good Friday Agreement is the dramatic reduction in political violence. Before 1998, Northern Ireland experienced bombings, shootings, and sectarian attacks almost daily. The agreement created a framework for paramilitary groups to declare ceasefires and eventually decommission their weapons. By 2005, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) had put its arsenal beyond use, and loyalist paramilitaries followed suit in the years that followed. While dissident republican groups remain active, the level of violence has plummeted. According to the CAIN Archive, deaths related to the conflict dropped from an average of over 100 per year in the 1990s to single figures in the 2010s. This shift has allowed citizens and communities to rebuild their lives without the constant fear of attack.

The agreement created a devolved legislature (the Northern Ireland Assembly) and a power-sharing executive in which the largest unionist and nationalist parties hold the posts of First Minister and deputy First Minister. This arrangement forced rival parties to cooperate on day-to-day governance. For much of the period from 1998 to 2017, the Assembly functioned effectively, passing legislation on health, education, and economic development. The Northern Ireland Assembly gave local politicians control over key areas, representing a significant transfer of power from London. The stability of this institution, despite periodic collapses, demonstrated that unionists and nationalists could work together for the common good.

Economic Growth and Cross-Border Trade

The peace dividend brought substantial economic gains. Foreign direct investment increased as international companies saw Northern Ireland as a safe place to do business. Tourism boomed, with visitor numbers rising from around 1.5 million in 1998 to over 5 million by 2019. Cross-border trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland flourished, supported by the EU’s single market and the common travel area. The agreement’s provisions for North-South cooperation—including the North-South Ministerial Council and implementation bodies—fostered joint projects in areas like agriculture, transport, and health. According to the Irish government, the economic relationship between North and South has been one of the agreement’s most successful outcomes.

Improving Community Relations and Reconciliation

The agreement helped shift the focus from conflict to coexistence. Programs funded by the EU’s Peace and Reconciliation initiatives and the International Fund for Ireland supported cross-community projects, youth exchanges, and shared housing schemes. The proportion of people living in integrated neighbourhoods—where Catholics and Protestants live side by side—grew modestly but steadily. The creation of institutions like the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and the Equality Commission ensured that human rights and equality were embedded in governance. While reconciliation is a long-term process, the agreement provided the political and legal architecture for it to begin.

Challenges and Failures of the Good Friday Agreement

Political Instability and the Collapse of the Executive

Despite its initial success, the power-sharing arrangement has been repeatedly undermined by political crises. The most notable collapse occurred between January 2017 and January 2020, when the Executive ceased to function after a dispute over the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal and disagreements over Irish language rights. During those three years, Northern Ireland had no devolved government, leaving key decisions in the hands of civil servants. The House of Commons Library notes that the prolonged suspension eroded public trust in the institutions created by the Good Friday Agreement. When the Executive was finally restored in 2020 under the New Decade, New Approach deal, underlying tensions remained, and the COVID-19 pandemic further strained relations.

The Impact of Brexit

Brexit has arguably been the greatest challenge to the Good Friday Agreement since its inception. The UK’s departure from the European Union removed Northern Ireland from the EU’s single market and customs union, creating a hard border on the island of Ireland—exactly what the agreement sought to avoid. The resulting Northern Ireland Protocol (now the Windsor Framework) placed a customs border in the Irish Sea, creating a regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the EU. This solution pleased nationalists but angered unionists, who felt it undermined Northern Ireland’s place in the UK. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) withdrew from the Executive in February 2022 in protest, collapsing the Assembly once again. As of 2025, the political impasse remains unresolved, demonstrating that an external factor—Brexit—can destabilise the delicate balance the agreement established.

Persistent Sectarian Divisions and Paramilitary Activity

While large-scale violence ended, sectarianism did not. Northern Ireland remains deeply segregated along religious and political lines. Over 90% of children attend either Catholic or state (mainly Protestant) schools, and many housing estates are still divided by peace walls. Paramilitary groups have not disappeared; they evolved into criminal enterprises involved in drug trafficking, smuggling, and violence. Dissident republicans continue to stage occasional attacks, and loyalist paramilitaries exert influence in their communities. The BBC reported in 2023 that paramilitary-style attacks—beatings, shootings, and exiling—remain a persistent issue, particularly in working-class areas. These activities indicate that the agreement failed to address the underlying social and economic grievances that fuel paramilitarism.

Legacy of the Troubles and Unfinished Justice

One of the agreement’s most criticised aspects is its handling of the legacy of the Troubles. The agreement established the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and the Equality Commission, but it left many questions about truth, justice, and accountability unanswered. For decades, victims’ families have campaigned for investigations into killings by the British Army, the IRA, and loyalist groups. The UK government’s introduction of the Legacy Act (the Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy and Reconciliation) Act 2023) has been widely condemned by human rights organisations and the Irish government for granting immunity to perpetrators in exchange for cooperation. The Irish News noted that this legislation is seen by many as a betrayal of the Good Friday Agreement’s promise of justice. The failure to establish a comprehensive truth recovery process has left deep wounds unhealed.

Despite economic growth, the benefits of peace have not been evenly distributed. Deprivation rates in parts of Belfast and Derry remain among the highest in the UK. Working-class communities that bore the brunt of the violence now face unemployment, poor housing, and limited opportunities. The Good Friday Agreement’s focus on political institutions left little room for addressing social and economic inequality directly. While later initiatives like the Fresh Start Panel (2015) tried to tackle paramilitarism and social deprivation, critics argue that the agreement itself did not go far enough to build an inclusive, prosperous society. The lack of integrated education and housing perpetuates division, making it harder to build a shared future.

Looking Forward: The Future of the Peace Process

Rebuilding Political Institutions in a Changed Landscape

The repeated collapses of the Northern Ireland Executive highlight the fragility of the power-sharing model as originally designed. To sustain the peace process, political leaders and the British and Irish governments must address the root causes of instability. Reforms to the Petition of Concern mechanism (which allows a party to block legislation on a 30-vote threshold) and the way First Ministers are nominated might help prevent future crises. However, the fundamental challenge remains: how to maintain a functioning government when the largest parties have deep ideological differences and no history of trust. The New Decade, New Approach deal, struck in 2020, attempted to institutionalise co-operation, but Brexit has overshadowed its provisions. Any long-term solution will require a renewed commitment from all parties to the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement—namely, that politics should be conducted through dialogue and compromise, not boycotts and brinkmanship.

Managing the Legacy of Brexit and the Protocol

Brexit will continue to test the agreement’s framework. The Windsor Framework, agreed between the UK and EU in 2023, sought to smooth practical issues such as food imports and parcel deliveries, but it did not resolve the fundamental constitutional tension. Unionists remain deeply unhappy with the arrangement, while nationalists view it as a necessary protection of the all-island economy and the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions for North-South co-operation. The British government has committed to protecting Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market, but the practical implementation of the framework is complex. Long-term stability may depend on the wider UK–EU relationship. A future Labour government in London, or a shift in EU trade policy, could change the calculus. In the meantime, the protocol issue will remain a flashpoint, capable of derailing the devolved institutions.

Addressing Paramilitarism and Community Safety

Efforts to tackle paramilitary activity must go beyond policing and include social investment and community engagement. The Organised Crime Task Force and the Paramilitary Crime Task Force have made some inroads, but paramilitaries remain embedded in working-class areas. Programs like Tackling Paramilitarism, Building Safe and Resilient Communities, launched in 2016, aim to divert young people away from paramilitary influence and provide alternative pathways. However, funding has been inconsistent, and the impact is difficult to measure. A long-term strategy would require sustained investment in education, employment, and mental health services in the most deprived communities. Without such measures, paramilitaries will continue to exploit the vacuum left by weak state institutions.

Reconciliation is a generational project. The Good Friday Agreement set up structures, but it did not mandate integrated education or housing. The voluntary sector and local councils have driven many cross-community initiatives, but progress is slow. The Together: Building a United Community strategy, launched in 2013, aimed to remove all peace walls by 2023—a target that has not been met. A more systematic approach is needed, including incentives for shared schooling, mixed housing estates, and shared public spaces. The EU’s PEACE PLUS programme (2021–2027) provides €1.1 billion for cross-border and cross-community projects, offering a significant opportunity to accelerate reconciliation. But money alone cannot change attitudes. Political leadership that explicitly promotes a shared future—rather than just managing division—remains essential.

Revisiting the Legacy of the Troubles

The unresolved legacy of the Troubles continues to poison community relations. The Good Friday Agreement’s approach—to focus on the future rather than the past—was understandable at the time but has left many families without closure. The UK government’s Legacy Act, which proposes a statute of limitations and a new Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery, has been widely criticised by the Irish government, human rights groups, and the Council of Europe. Many argue that it contravenes the European Convention on Human Rights and the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement. A more credible approach would involve supporting independent historical investigations, providing meaningful truth recovery mechanisms, and ensuring that victims are at the centre of any process. The new commission must be genuinely independent and resourced to deliver results, or it will only deepen the sense of injustice.

Conclusion: A Work in Progress

The Good Friday Agreement remains one of the most remarkable peace agreements in modern history. It ended a brutal conflict, created functioning political institutions, and laid the groundwork for economic renewal and cross-community cooperation. In many ways, Northern Ireland today is a vastly safer and more prosperous place than the region that signed the agreement in 1998. Yet the agreement was never a final settlement; it was a framework for managing differences and building a shared future. Over the past two decades, political crises, Brexit, persistent paramilitarism, and unresolved legacy issues have exposed its weaknesses. The collapse of the Assembly, the failure to address social inequality, and the re-emergence of constitutional tensions show that the peace process is incomplete.

To sustain the gains and address the shortcomings, all parties—the British and Irish governments, the Northern Ireland Executive (when it functions), and community leaders—must recommit to the agreement’s core principles: consent, power-sharing, human rights, and equality. This means resolving the political deadlock, finding a workable long-term arrangement for the Protocol, investing in social and economic inclusion, and finally dealing honestly with the legacy of the Troubles. The Good Friday Agreement is not a relic of the past; it is a living document that requires constant effort and adaptation. The next two decades will determine whether it becomes a foundation for lasting peace or a cautionary tale about a peace that was almost achieved but never fully realised.