Ulwalamano phakathi kovoti kunye neziphumo zonyulo luye lwaba yindawo ebalulekileyo yokuhlola kwinzululwazi yezobupolitika. Ukuqonda indlela impembelelo yokujika okunokunika ngayo iziphumo kumgaqo wedemokhrasi kunye noonobangela abashukumisela abemi ukuba bathathe inxaxheba kukhetho. Ugcino-lwazi lubonisa rhoqo ukuba ukwenziwa kovotelwayo kubonise ukunyuka nokuhlala ekhaya kwaye okubalulekileyo kwenkqubo yokushicileleka, kuguqula ukukhuphisana kwemizwano yentlalo, kwaye kwanokwenza isigqibo sokuba ngowuphi umvoti uphumelele. Eli nqaku lihlola umvoti uphenduli ngokusuka kuvavanyo lwe data-Dinjini, iziphumo zayo ezinokusetyenziswa kwiziphumo zonyulo, kunye neenjongo ezingqiniwe ukuba zivunyiwe ukuba ziphumele inxaxheba.

Ukuchaza igalelo lombane nokubaluleka kwalo

Ujiko-jiko lweVoter lubalwa njengepesenti yabemi abafumana uvota (VAP) okanye uvotelo olungagqibekiyo (VEP) oluphosa ibhola kunyulo olunikiweyo. Ngelixesha ukurhoxa okuphezulu kusoloko kubhiyozelwa njengephawu lempilo yedemokhrasi, ulwalamano phakathi komgangatho wokujika kunye nobunjani bomelo luntsokothile. Ukurhoxa kophawu lovota, imiqobo yesakhiwo, okanye ukurhoxiswa kwemithetho ecwangcisiweyo, kodwa lungabonakalisa ulwaneliseko ngemo yemo yobume. Ukuqonda i-projectives kufuna ukurhola ulwazi lokuguqula ulwazi lwendawo, umgangatho, umgangatho, nohlobo lokhetho.

Ukubaluleka okuqhelekileyo kokujika kusuka kumgaqo wokulingana kwezobupolitika: ilizwi lommi ngamnye kufuneka liphathe ubunzima obulinganayo. Xa ujika usezantsi kwaye ungameli, izilangazelelo zabangengovol---"othanda ukuba bancinane, bahlwempuzeke kakhulu, kwaye baninzi ngakumbi). Oku kungakhokelela kumgaqo kawonke-wonke ovumela izinto ezikhethwayo, ezityebileyo, nezimhlophe. Uphando olusebenzisa uphando kunye nohlolo lwasemva luqinisekisa ukuba amagosa anyuliweyo anike ingqalelo engakumbi kwimicimbi enokuba nguRhoviet, adale irhintyela elithelelayo kumaqela asele egciphekile.

Iintsontela zokutshintsha komjikelo wesinyithi

Uphando oluninzi, ukusuka kwincwadi yodidi yeWolfinger neRosenstone ukuya kuvavanyo lwentsimi lwangoku, luchaza iseti yesakhiwo, ulwakhiwo, kunye nomgangatho womntu ngamnye ohambayo.

Imiqobo Ekhoyo Neyomthetho

Imithetho yokubhalisa iphakathi kwezona zinto zinamandla. Amazwe anokubhalisa ngokwawo okanye abhaliswe ngosuku olunye abona ukuguquka okuphezulu kakhulu kunalawo afuna ubhaliso oluthe rhoqo kwiiveki okanye iinyanga zoNnyulo. EUnited States, achaza ukuba ukuphunyezwa kwemithetho ye-ID engqongqo kuqwalaselwe, ingakumbi phakathi kweqela elincinci neliphantsi lokuvota. Ezinye izinto eziqukekayo ziquka ixesha lonyulo (usuku lweveki v. colation), ubuninzi bovoteko, kunye nokufumaneka kovotelo kwasekuqaleni okanye i-inbolot. Ugcino-lwazi oluphumayo olusuka ku [[Foct:0] lweziko yoomatilo-mthetho-mthetho-omatika (IDA)[FFFOT]

Inkcitho yezobugcisa nezoqoqosho

Ixesha lonyaka lelinye lawona anamandla nangaguquguqukiyo. Kunyulo lwama-2020 lukamongameli wase-U.S., lwajikelezwa phakathi kwalawo angama-65 nangaphezulu yaba ngu-76%, xa kuthelekiswa nama-91% phakathi kwe 18-24-minyaka yobudala, ngokwe .S. Ubalo lwe-data yeBhunga [. Imfundo nayo ithetha ngokunamandla ngokujika: abaphumeleleyo bamalunga nama-20,30 eephesenti ezinokwenzeka kakhulu ukuvota kunalawo angenayo idiplokhwela. Ngokwengeniso, uhlanga, kunye nobuhlanga kunye nezi ntlobo. Ii-flalksi.

  • [[UMTL: 0] Age: Abavoti abadala bajika ngokuzingisileyo kwinani eliphezulu kunabavoti abaselula.
  • [[Umthetho:0] Imfundo: unyaka ngamnye wongezelelo lwemfundo yandisa amathuba okuvota.
  • Ingeniso: Ifikela abantu abafumana ivoti engaphezulu, ngokwenxenye ngenxa yoovimba abakhulu kunye nokusebenza kwezobupolitika.
  • Race/Ethnity: imiqobo yokwakheka kunye nokwahlulwa kwembali kuvelisa izithuba ezizinzileyo.

Ukubandakanyeka Kwezobupolitika Nokuthotywa Kweentshulukwano

Ngaphezu kwamanani abantu, umdla wezopolitiko ngamnye kunye nokuchanabeka kwimigudu yokuzilungiselela. Amaphulo asebenzisa ukudibana ngqo (ukunkqonkqoza endlwini, ukubhalisa umnxeba, ukukhumbuza okubhaliweyo) aboniswe ekunyuseni ngeencam ezili-1-12. Iinkqubo zentlalo zikwadlala indima: xa abamelwane okanye amalungu entsapho ecelwa ukuba avote, ukwanda. Ngokuchasene noko, abemi abavakalelwa ukuba ukuvota kwabo akwazeli ukuba "i-Phondo""

Ukwandisa Impembelelo Yonyuko Kwiziphumo Zonyulo

Umbuzo ongundoqo kukuba ngaba utshintsho kwiinguqu zokujika-jika ngokwenene ngubani ophumeleleyo. Iimodeli zeNqanawa zixela ukuba ukuba abavoti abatsha abaziswe kuvoti banezinto ezikhethekayo ezahlukeneyo kunabavoti abakhoyo, iziphumo zingatshintsha. Ubungqina be-empirfir bucebisa isiphumo somongo, kodwa kunyulo olusondeleyo, ukujika-jika kungasisigqibo.

Uhlolisiso lwemeko lwemiboniso ephezulu

Unyulo oluphezulu lusoloko luvelisa iziphumo ezibonakalisa uluvo olubanzi lukawonke-wonke, maxa wambi luxhasa abavukeli abahambela phambili okanye abavukeli.

  • Unyulo loMongameli wase-U.S. lufikelele kwi-61.6% yabemi abanokuvota, ephezulu kakhulu ukususela ngowe-1968. Iphulo likaBarack Obama linikwe amandla amakhulu ekubhaliseni nasekujikeni kwabancinane, Black, kunye nabavoti-Spenic, amaqela awamxhasa ngokugqithisileyo. Analyses nguMzinzi wophando wovoteko [ uPew [ ubonisa ukuba ukwenziwa kobuhlanga kunye nokuqaliswa komvolo lombutho womvolo osuliweyo, unegalelo kwi-7-R1206, u-9-icelo ncam yephepha loloyilo.
  • 2017 Unyulo loMongameli wamaFrentshi olungu-[FUT:1] ITurnout yayingu 77.9% kwisangqa sesibini, ephezulu kakhulu ukususela ngo 1974. Uloyiso luka-Emmanuel Macron phezu koMatine Le Pen lwancedwa lukhawulezelo olukhawulezileyo phakathi kwabatsha nabavoti basedolophini abaqokelela ukuvala ekunene. Emowda uhlolo lwabonisa ukuba ixesha lokuqala nelokungakonwabi bomvoti baphule kakhulu kwiMacron.
  • 2020 Unyulo loMongameli wase-U.S. unyulo: lojikelezo lwembali 66.7% yeVEP. Umanyano lukaJoseph Biden's luquke isabelo esikhulu samatyala okuvota, ngokukodwa kumabala edabi angundoqo. Ugcino-lwazi olusuka ku Ugcino-lwazi lweNqanalo kunye nenzululwazi ye-Lab lubonisa ukuba ngolwando olukhulu olukwijiyo (*, njenge Georgia kunye ne-Arizona ziphendulo zisuka kwiRiphabliki ukuya kwiDramakhrasi, nto leyo icebisa ukuba uvolo olubanzi lwaluluncedo kakhulu kwi-Biden.

Umjikelo osezantsi nomelo olutsaliweyo

Unyulo oluphantsi ludla ngokugqithisa ekuboniseni izinto ezikhethwa ngabatsha abadala, abamhlophe, nabaninzi abavoti, kunye nabo banemdla ophezulu kwezobupolitika. Oku kungakhokelela kwiziphumo ezinyukisayo ukusuka kwizinto ezikhethwa nguwonke-wonke.

Uhlalutyo logcino-lwazi lwezimbo zojiko-jiko: Ingqikelelo yobude kunye nengqikelelo yohlanga oluphakathi

Ugcino - lwazi oluvela kwimithombo emininzi lutyhila iindlela ezibalulekileyo ekuqondeni impilo yolawulo - melo nemiphumo yotshintsho.

Utyekelo Lwexesha elide eUnited States

Unyulo lonyulo lomongameli wase-U.S. luye lwatshintsha-tshintsha phakathi kwama-50% nama-67% ukususela ngo-1961, ngokuncipha okuphawulekayo phakathi ko-1968 no-1996, lulandelwa kukuchaphazeleka okuncinane. I-Midtertert isuka kwi-35% ukuya kuma-50%. Unyulo lwa 2020 lwaphula utyekelo oludala lokuphambuka njengesabelo se-VAP, iqhutywa kukuvota iposi, ukukhuthaza okunzulu okuqhubekayo kokusingqongileyo okuselukweni, kunye nokutshintsha kwamanani. Noko ke, ukujika kwiminyaka engeyo engaphambili kuhlala kusezantsi, kuqinisekisa ingcamango yokuba oothunywa bonyulo baninzi kunomgangatho ophezulu kunabantu abaqhelekileyo.

Umahluko womgangatho ophezulu oye watyhilwa yiData yoHlolo

Usebenzisa iCPS Commons Evolution (CPS), abaphengululi baye babhala ingxelo engapheliyo. Umzekelo, ngowama-2020:

  • Abemi base-Speyin babethe tye phakathi kwabemi abamhlophe abangama-71%, xa kuthelekiswa nama-65% kubemi abaNsundu, ama-44% kubemi base-Speyin, nama- 59% kubemi baseAsia. (Emva kokulawula imfundo nengeniso, umsantsa wobuhlanga unciphile kodwa awupheli.)
  • Phakathi kwabo banedigri ephezulu okanye ngaphezulu babengama - 82 ekhulwini, bephakathi kwama - 52 ekhulwini abo babengenaso idiploma yesikolo samabanga aphakamileyo.
  • Ukhuthuzo kwiqela elineminyaka eli-1824 (51%) belungaphantsi kweleepesenti ezingama-25 kunaleyo i-65 nangaphezulu (76%).

Ezi zinto zahlulayo ngenxa yokuba ulawulo olukhethwa ngala maqela lusoloko lungalingani kwimiba efana nonyango, ukusetyenziswa kwemali yemfundo, kunye nentlalo-ntle yoluntu. Ingxelo ye- esuka kwiUrban Institute ibonisa ukuba kumaphondo anezithuba ezinkulu, imisela imigaqo engqongqo ngakumbi kwimicimbi yerhafu nenkcitho kawonke-wonke.

Ibhadulo lehlabathi elithelekisayo

Ugcino-lwazi lwehlabathi jikelele lwe-IDEA lubonisa ukuba umlinganiselo wonyulo othe wavela emhlabeni wonke malunga nama-65% kunyulo lwesizwe. Ngokuqhelekileyo amazwe aseNtshona Yurophu abona unyuko oluphezulu (75-85%) kune-United States, ngokwenxalenye ngenxa yeenkqubo zolwakhelo lomelo, ukuvota, nokuvota okunyanzelekileyo. Utyekelo lwe-Latin America lwe-Melika olufana ne-Brazil ne-Uruguayay uphumele kuma-80% + + ukurhoxisa okuzenzekelayo nokuvota okunyanzelisa inzala. Ngokuchasene noko, amazwe akwimpuma Yurophu asoloko ebona ukurhoxakeka okumalunga nama-50-60%, ukubonakalisa ukuthemba okuncitshiswa okuphantsi kwemibutho. Utyekelo olupheleleyo ukususela ngo-19909 kurhoxisiwe kukhuselwe ekuhlani kwe-deodevice kusetyenziswa i-demo-decccovote (ivote propool) kunye nokunganwe namaqela ezobupolitika.

Ubuchule bokwandisa i-oter Turleut: ufikelelo olusekelwe kubungqina

Uncwadi olunamandla lwenzululwazi yezobupolitika nemigaqo yokuziphatha kawonke wonke lunikela ungenelelo oluvavanyiweyo lokunyusela uphando, ngokukodwa phakathi kwamaqela angasetyenziswayo.

Utshintsho Olumanyumnyezi

  • Ngokuzenzekelayo Ubhaliso lwe Voter (AVR): Amazwe azalisekisa i-AVR, njenge-Oregon ne Colorado, abona amaqondo obhaliso enyuka nge 10-20% kunye nolwandiso oluncinci kodwa olubalulekileyo. Uhlalutyo lwe Brennan Center yeJaji [ lubonisa ukuba i-AVR inciphisa umahluko wobuhlanga ekubhaliseni.
  • Kuqala nokuvota: Ukwenza uvotelo luncedise ngakumbi ngomlinganiselo wama-2-8.7 epesenti, ngokwe meta-alyses of U.S.. ngoko ke, isiphumo sinamandla kakhulu kwivoti nakwabo bajongane nexesha elinqatyisiweyo. Abahlalutyi baphawula ukuba ukuvota iposi kunganyusa iingozi zenkohliso kancinci, nangona iimeko ezichaziweyo zinqabile kakhulu.
  • Ubhaliso lomhla wonyulo (EDR): okwangoku kwindawo kumaphondo angama-2 kunye ne D.C., i-EDR yandisa ukujika ngo 5-10 amanqaku eepesenti kunyulo lomongameli. Isebenza kakhulu phakathi kwabaselula nabavoti abatsha nabathuthwayo abasenokuphoswa lixesha lesithethe.
  • Ingxowa enyanzelisayo ye-'C' i- Ngelixesha kuphikisana ngezobupolitika, ukuvota okunyanzelekileyo okunemali ephantsi (njengase-Australia) kuvelisa izithuba ezingaphezulu kwama-90% kwaye kunciphisa izithuba zentlalo yezoqoqosho ekuthabatheni inxaxheba. Ikwatshintsha iindlela zephulo, njengoko amaqela kufuneka abhenele kubo bonke abakhethi kunokuba athathele abavoti.

Iingenelelo zokuziphatha noluntu

  • I-Directing kunye noxinzelelo lwentlalo: Ibala elikhulu elisikali livavanywa ngu Gerber, Green, kunye ne Larimer (2008) yabonisa ukuba ukuposa okukhumbuza abemi ukuba ingxelo yabo yokuvota lunyuso lukawonke-wonke ngomlinganiselo wamanqaku. Iindlela zoxinzelelo lwentlalo ziyasebenza kodwa zithandabuzeka xa befuna ihlazo.
  • Ilaphu leseyile elisekelwe kwi Community: ucango-lungenelo lwecangci lwendlu yangasese lamatsha - ntliziyo asekuhlaleni, ingakumbi xa ibandakanya incoko emfutshane malunga nesizathu sokuba kuvotelwe, inyusa ukujika ngeencopho ezingamashumi amane anesibhozo. Isiphumo sinamandla xa iseyile yokucangca isuka kwinani elifanayo okanye kummandla omnye.
  • Iinkqubo zobuntwana-Booked: Ukubhalisa kwangaphambili kwabaneminyaka eli-16 neyi-17 ubudala, kunye neenkqubo zesikolo samabanga aphakamileyo eziquka unyulo lwentelekelelo, zidala umkhwa wokuvota. Ubungqina obuvela eNorway nase U.S. bubonisa ukuba ukhupho lwangaphambili ekuvoteleni lunyuse kunyuko kunyuko olulandelayo ngonyuso-5/10 iincopho zeepesenti.

Isiphelo: Umlinganiselo Olawula Idemocratic Onenxaxheba Enokuthelekelelwa

Impembelelo yovoti ekuvuleni iziphumo zonyulo inzulu kwaye iyabalula. Ukujika okuphezulu nokungaphezulu kommeli akuqinisekisi nasiphi na isiphumo esikhethekileyo, kodwa kwenza ukuba ukwenziwa kokhetho kufaneke ngokusondeleyo, nto leyo eyenza ukuba imigaqo echaphazelekayo ibonise zonke iimfuno zikawonke-wonke. Phantsi ukujika, ingakumbi xa kujoliswe kumaqela athile, kugqwetha ukumela kwaye kungenza ukulingana okusebenzayo. Ugcino-lwazi olusuka kumashumi eminyaka ophando lwenzeke ngokucacileyo lwenza kube cacileyo okokuba umyili wequmrhu nolwelo lwenzame kunyuke ngokuphawulekayo. Njengokuba ulawulo-democrafic lujongene nocelomngeni lokuziko, ukurhoxanduza, ukuthemba, ukurhweba ngokuxhasa ubuchule obunempumelelo ekuguquleni enye indlela ezikhoyo zokuqinisekisa ukuqinisekisa ngamaxesha amaninzi olawulo lwedemo-demokhrasi.