Uhlolisiso lwezicwangciso zonyulo lwembali lunika uluvo olubalulekileyo ngendaleko yeendawo kunye nendlela yokuziphatha yabavoti ngexesha elidlulileyo. Ngokuhlolisisa unyulo, abaphandi, oogcisa, kunye nabemi bangachonga imilinganiselo enokuphembelela iziphumo eziphambili zonyulo lwexesha elizayo kunye nezigqibo ezingokwenkqubo. Unyulo gcino-lwazi `ekunqamleza emva kwamashumi eminyaka kunye kwanakwiinkulungwane ezithile kwidemokhrasi . . . ichaza indlela eziguquka ngayo kumanani abantu abafumana ivoti. Eli nqaku lihlolisisa izicwangciso-ncomo zembali ezingundoqo, lihlalutya iziphumo zemeko ezingundoqo, kwaye lixubusha ngeziphumo zolawulo-demokhrasi kwinkulungwane engamashumi amabini anesihlanu.

Ukubaluleka Kokuqonda Indlela Yokukhetha

Ukuqonda izicwangciso zonyulo ezingundoqo kubachonyisi-zininzi, ukusuka kubavoti ukuya kubanikeli benkqubo kunye namaqela ezobupolitika. Ukujongana nembali kunceda ukuqwalasela iinkalo zezopolitiko zangoku kwaye kulindele amatshintshi kwixesha elizayo. ISikolo soNqumo lweSizwe saseMerika (ANES) kunye neCouperative Evolution Study (CE) iphakamisile isimo sengqondo sabavoti ukususela kwinkulungwane yeshumi elinesibini leminyaka, inika indawo ebanzi yokuhlola intsingiselo. Ngokuhlolisisa ezi migaqo yezorhwebo, singazoba nezifundo eziqinisa iinkqubo zedemokhrasi.

Ubungqina obunobuchule kunye nokuzibandakanya

Izimvo zembali zinika amandla abavoti ngokubeka amaphulo akhoyo kumongo. Umzekelo, ukwazi ukuba umvoti ojika phakathi kunyulo uthathe i-avareji malunga nama-40% ukususela ngo-1970.Ngoko unyulo lomongameli lumalunga no- 55%.*a baninding bazweni bayakuqonda ukubaluleka konyulo lwaminyaka iphela. I-Drend data ikwatyhila indlela inkqubo etshintsha ngayo, njengentshayelelo yokuqala okanye ubhaliso olufanayo, luchaphazela inxaxheba. U.S.IKOMALI-MALI-MALI-M

Ubuchule Bopolitiko Nokuhlasela

Amaqela ezobupolitika kunye namaphulo axhomekeke kwintsingiselo yonyulo engokwembali yokwabela ubuncwane ngempumelelo. Uhlalutyo lomgangatho wengingqi odlulileyo lunceda ukuphawula abavoti abajijiyo namaqela abemi atshintsha-tshintsha ukunyaniseka. Umzekelo, intshukumo eqhubekayo yabavoti kwiRiphablikian Partium kwiminyaka yakutshanje ibhaliwe isebenzisa ugcino-lwazi lwengingqi olukwimithombo efana ne MIT Evolute Data nenzululwazi. Ingqiqo ezinjalo zivumela amaphulo okulungisa imiyalezo kwimibango enjengezempilo, irhafuthelo, kunye nemfundo kubaphulaphuli abathile.

Uphuhliso loMgaqo-nkqubo nokuBekelwa

Izicwangciso zokhetho ziyi-thermometer yoluvo lukawonke-wonke. Abenzi bomthetho basebenzisa idata yokuvota ukuvavanya inkxaso yendlela yokuziphatha yomthetho. Utyekelo lokwandisa ubhaliso oluzimeleyo oluvoti-zii-yo. Ngoku ngaphezu kwama-40% okhetho kwamanye amazwe, isalathisi inqwenela iinkqubo zekhompyutha. Uhlalutyo lwenyathelo lokuqala, njengabo benza ukwenziwa komchamo ngokusemthethweni okanye ukunyuka komvuzo, banika abenzi benkqubo ubungqina obuthe ngqo bokhetho lomvoti. Iziko lophando lwe-PrewPicesss [[ rhoqo ikhupha iziphumo zokunyulwa konyulo oludibanisa iingxelo kwiindawo zonyulo.

Utyekelo Oluyintloko Lwembali Yokhetho

Kukho iziganeko eziliqela eziphawulekayo eziye zavela kunyulo lwembali olubonisa ukutshintsha kwemilinganiselo yoluntu nezinto eziza kuqala kwezobupolitika. Ezi ndlela azihambelani kuyo yonke imimandla okanye amaxesha exesha, kodwa zinika imbono ebanzi yendaleko yehambo ekhethekileyo.

1. Utyekelo lweVoter Turnaut

Voter revertout sisalathisi esibalulekileyo sozibophiso zoluntu. Ugcino-lwazi lwembali lubonisa ukutshintsha okukhulu okuphenjelelwa lutshintsho olungokwasemthethweni, imigudu yokuququzelela, kunye nezithintelo ezicingelwayo zonyulo. EUnited States, ukujika kunyulo lomongameli osuka ku- 48,9% ephantsi ka-1924 ku-1924 ukuya kutsho kunyuko oluphezulu lwe-6.9%, ngokwe-U.S data ye-Cunication data ye-[

  • Ukujongwa kwabantu:[ Ubudala, uhlanga, kunye nobume bentlalo nemeko yezoqoqosho buhambelana kakhulu nokujika. Abavoti abadala (65+) baye bavota ngamanani angaphezulu kwama-70%, lo gama abavoti abangaphantsi kwama-30 beye balandela ngezantsi kwe-50%.
  • Udidi lokhetho: unyulo loMongameli lubona 10-20 amanqaku aphezulu konyulo phakathi kwexesha lokukhetha. Ukuphuma konyaka wehla njengo 36.6% ngo-2014 phambi kokuba uphinde uqatshelwe ku- 52.6% kwi-20222.
  • Imozulu engaqhelekanga: Unyulo olulawulwa yimiba edibanisayo okanye abathathi-nxaxheba basoloko beququzelela ukurhoxa abavoti abatshatiweyo. Unyulo lwama-2020 lwabona irekhodi eqhutywa yile ngxaki, inkcaso yezobulungisa bobuhlanga, kunye nokungavumelani okugqithisileyo.
  • IIndibaniselwano: imithetho yeVoter, imiqathango yokubhalisa, kunye nendawo yokuvota ibonise ukuvalwa koxinzelelo lwengqondo phakathi kwamaqela agwetyelwe phantsi. Ngokuchaseneyo, ithetha ukuba ukwandisa iposi ekuvotelweni namaxesha okuvota akuqala kwabonwa ukuba kwanda ukuthabatha inxaxheba.

2. Ukuguquka kweQela

Ukutyhubela amashumi eminyaka, utshintsho kwiqela lokunxulumana luye lwaguqula isimo sezobupolitika. I-New Bureant junigniment yoo-1930 yazisa abavoti abasebenzayo kwicandelo ledemocratic, ngeli xesha utshintsho lwaseMazantsi lwee-1960 lutyhalela abamhlophe abanokuthatha imvumelwano kwiParti yeRiphabliki. Izimo zakutshanje ziquka ukwanda kozibukeli abazimeleyo kunye nokuchonga kwelizwe labasebenzi.

  • Amaxesha okwamkelwa: Utshintsho olungundoqo lusoloko lubangelwa ziingxaki zezoqoqosho okanye intsebenziswano. Unyulo lwango 1932 phantsi ko Franklin D. Roosevelt lwadala uninzi lwedemocratic eyahlala amashumi eminyaka. Unyulo lowe-1964 nowe-1968, ngokudlula kwe-Civilin Rights Act, lwanyusa ukuguqukela komzantsi ukuya kuluhlu lwe-GOP.
  • Imisebenzi ezimeleyo: Umlinganiselo wabavoti abafanisa njengezimeleyo unyuke ukusuka malunga ne-20% kwii 1950 ukuya ngaphezu kwama-40% namhlanje (nangona abaninzi “bangasese” kwiqela elinye). Oku“kugunyazisa” kunciphisa amaqhina esithethe eqela kwaye kwenza unyulo lube ngquzulwano oludala.
  • Uguqu-guquko lommandla: Imntla-mpuma kunye neNtshona yonxweme iye yaba yeyeDemocratic, ngelixa uMzantsi neGreat Plain ziyiRiphabliki enamandla. IMidwath, eyayikhe yaba ngummandla womanyano lweDemocrats, ngoku ingummandla wedabi okhuphisanayo.

3. Impembelelo ekhulayo yeembambano nokhuthuzo lwecandelo elinye

Ukuvota okusekelwe kwimpikiswano kuye kwacaca kakhulu. Ngo-2020, malunga ne 4% yemida esekelwe ekujongeni ukuqhomfa, kumalungelo ompu, ukutshintsha kwemozulu, kunye nokufuduka. Ukunyaniseka okukodwa kubuthathaka kumgangatho wasekuhlaleni; ukuvota okucalucalulweyo kuye kwehla kakhulu ukusuka kuma 1970 ukuya kufutshane nokuphela namhlanje. Ngo-2020, kuphela malunga ne 4% yemizwano yeBhunga yeQetha lelizwe leMithetho ephumela kwithikithi elahlukeneyo, ezantsi ukusuka kuma-20% kuma-70. Le ntsingiselo ibonakalisa ukwanda komgangatho wemiqondo, njengoko kungqinwe yiZiko lophando .

Uhlolisiso Lwezinto Ezinokubonwa

Uhlolisiso olucacileyo lunika ingqiqo enzulu ngezi zinto zichazwe ngasentla. Olu hlolisiso lubonisa indlela iinguqu zamanani, ubugcisa, kunye nolwahluka-hlukeneyo lwemiba edityaniswe ngayo ukuze kuvezwe iziphumo zokukhetha ezineziphumo ezihlala zihleli.

Unyulo loMongameli

Unyulo lowama-2008 lwabalaselisa ixesha elibalulekileyo kwimbali yaseMerika, eliphawulwa lunyulo lomongameli wokuqala waseMerika.

  • [[FLT: 0] Umvota ophezulu: A malunga 61.6% yabavoti abafanelekileyo bathabatha inxaxheba, isantya esiphezulu kakhulu ukususela ngo 1960. I-Turmout phakathi kwabavoti baseAfrika basuka kwi 65%, phantse ingqinelana nevoti emhlophe yexesha lokuqala.
  • [[FLT: 0] Izahlulo ze-Demographic Shifts: Iphulo lika-Barack Obama lilungiselele ngempumelelo abavoti abaselula (1829) namaqela amancinane. Abavoti abaselula baxhasa i-Obama ngemida emi-2 ukuya ku-1, kwaye i-Spanic ijika yanyuka ngamavoti amabini ezigidi ngo-2004.
  • [[NTL:0]] I-Istact of Technology: imigangatho yezentlalo yoluntu enjenge Facebook kunye neTwitter yasetyenziswa okokuqala ukulungiselela amatsha - ntliziyo kunye nabanikeli abancinane. Iphulo lika-Obama lanyusa iingxelo zengxelo kwi-intanethi, limisela umgangatho omtsha wokubotshelelwa kwamanani.
  • [[FLT: 0] Imeko yemali: Ingxaki yezoqoqosho ka 2008 yenza uqoqosho lwaba yeyona mbambano ibalulekileyo, inceda umyalezo ka-Obama wotshintsho kwi-inbante Republican type.

2. Unyulo loMongameli 2016

Unyulo 2016 lutyhile ucalucalulo olunzulu phakathi kovotelwa baseMerika kwaye luchase abaxeli abaninzi bezinto ezixelwe kwangaphambili:

  • UbuPopu: Bobabini amaqela babona i populist intsebenziswano ````````Barnie Sanders' ngasekhohlo' kwaye Donald Trump ngasekunene(ukubonisa ukunganeliseki okusasazekileyo ngokusekwa kwezobupolitika. Uloyiso lukaTrump kwi-Electoral College ngelixa elahlekileyo ivoti ephambili ibalase ulwahlulo lomphakathi wedolotho nexabiso elibalulekileyo le-Rust Belt.
  • [[FLT: 0] Ukuhlahlela: uphando lwangaphandle lwabonisa ukunyaniseka okubhaliweyo okunerejithi: 89% yamaDemocrates ovotelwa uHillary Clinton, kunye 88% yamaRepublicans for Trump. Umlinganiselo wodanga loloyiso kumazwe okhuphiswano yayiyincasa, ibonakalisa ulwahlulo olusondeleyo.
  • Indima yesithethe yogcino-lwazi kunye ne-media yentlalo yoluntu. Amabali obuxoki kuFacebook ahlulwa ngaphezu kweendaba zokwenene kwiinyanga zokugqibela zephulo. Imigudu yophazamiso lwaseRashiya ngezibhengezo zoncopho kunye nee-imeyili ezishwankathelweyo yongeza umlinganiselo omtsha kwimpembelelo yonyulo.
  • [[FLT: 0] I-Demfographics of Distestent: Trump wafumana inkxaso eyomeleleyo kumgangatho omhlophe osebenzayo ngaphandle kwamaqondo okholeji, abavakalelwa ngathi bashiywe emva kukudityaniswa kwehlabathi. Clinton ilawulwa ngamabhinqa afundileyo namaqela amancinane, kodwa ijoni eliphantsi phakathi kwabavoti bama-Amerika abatsha kumazwe angundoqo njengePennsylvania neMichigan yangqinela phambili.

3. Unyulo loMongameli lwama-2020

Olunyulo lwama - 2020 lwayimbali ngeendlela eziliqela, ukususela kwimbali yalo ukusa kucelomngeni olukhethekileyo lwesifo esibulalayo:

  • I-Record Turnout: ngaphezu kwezigidi ezili - 158 zavota, umyinge wokuvota othe ngqo wama-66.9%.* ophezulu kakhulu ukususela ngo-19000. Unyuso lweposi ekuvoteni, ukuvota kwandiswa kwangethuba, kunye nentshukumisa enzulu kumacala omabini iqhubela phambili.
  • Iposi-in Voning kunye nokuThembela kwi Institutions: Malunga nama- 43% abavoti abaphosa ibhola ngeposi, ukusuka kuma-21% ngo-2016. Oku kutshintshile kwakhokelela kucelomngeni olusemthethweni nakuqhatha okungenasizathu, ukuphelisa ukuthembana kulawulo lonyulo.
  • Izivukelo zomzobo? C ngokuchasene nolindelo, uTrump waphucula inkxaso yakhe phakathi kwabavoti bamaSpeyin nabama-Asia xa kuthelekiswa no 2016, ngelixesha abavoti basezitratweni kunye nabemi abakhulu bafudukela eBiden. Ezi nguqu zibonisa ukuba iminqoqo edityanisiweyo ayilungiswanga kwaye ingavela ngokukhawuleza.
  • Iqela le-Indlalo lobuNcedo: I-Black Lives Confect ngehlobo lama-2020 enyusiweyo yokugweba kobuhlanga njengomba ophambili, ukunyusela unyuso phakathi kwabavoti abamnyama kwaye ingakumbi phakathi kwamabhinqa amancinane amnyama eGeorgia, ukutsalela urhulumente eBiden.

Ubalo Lwendlela Yokhetho Olungokwembali

Ukuqonda utyekelo lonyulo lwembali kuchaphazela ikamva lolawulo-demokhrasi. Ezi mizekelo zichaza indlela esixela kwangaphambili ngayo iziphumo zonyulo, ucwangciso lwephulo lokuyila, nokukhusela ingqibelelo yonyulo.

Ukuxela Ikamva Lokhetho

Utyekelo lwezimo zovotelo lunganceda ekuxeleni kwangaphambili indlela yokuziphatha kunye nokujika kunyulo oluzayo. Iimodeli eziquka utshintsho lwamanani, izibonisi zezoqoqosho, kunye neendlela zokuvota zembali ziye zantsonkotha. Umzekelo, ukuguqulwa kwabavoti abafunde ekholejini ngakwiDidemocratic Party kuxela kwangaphambili ungenelo olude kumazwe akwimigangatho yemfundo ephezulu, ngelixesha ukhlulwano lwabamhlophe abavoti abangemthetho abangeyo lungonakalisa amaRiphabliki kunyulo lwesizwe. Kodwa, ukuguquka kwemijikelezo yakutshanje ````iTrump' ingenelwa ngokuchasene nokungalingani nonyuselwa kweminxeko---mfo.

Iqhinga lephulo kunye nokufuduswa kwezibonelelo

Amacebo asebenzisa intsingiselo yembali ukugqiba ukuba iza kuyisebenzisa phi imali nexesha. Ukuncipha kwenani lamajelo okhuphiswano kuthetha ukuba omabini amaqela ajolise ingqalelo kwimaphu encinane. Unyulo lwama-2020 lwabona ii-$4 bhiliyoni zezigidi ezichithelwe kumaphulo ezobupolitika, ezininzi zazo zajoliswe kumaphondo amathandathu emfazwe. Uhlalutyo lovotelo lwamaqela, ukubuya kwangoko, ukuvota, kunye nemilinganiselo yokujika kwimibutho elithile inceda ukulungisa imisebenzi yabo yokuthumela imiyalezo kunye nomhlaba ngokuchanekileyo.

Ukubuyiselwa komgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokuthunyelwa kukawonke-wonke

Ukwazi iziphumo zonyulo lwembali kungakhokelela kutshintsho olukhawulezileyo lwemithetho elawulayo ekuthetheni neemfuno zabaququzeleli. Xa umba usoloko ubotshelelwa kwimpumelelo ekhethekileyo .Njengokuba umgangatho wonyulo olukhoyo ukhokelele kwiinguqu zenkqubo ekhawulezileyo kwimiba efana nokuqhomfa, imithetho yemipu, kunye nokuvota. Inyathelo lorhwebo, elisetyenziswa kakhulu kumaphondo njengeKhalifoniya neColorado, livumela uRhovota ukuba aqhube izithuba ezihlaziweyo kunye nenkqubo ecwangcisiweyo; imbali yabo ibonisa ukuba imilinganiselo ethandwayo kumacala asemthethweni, njengakusetyenziswa komjelo wompu okanye unyuso oluncinane.

Ubandakanyeko Olulawulwa Yidemokhrasi Nokuthembeka

Ukukhuthaza ukuganana kwezentlalo kubaluleke kakhulu kwidemokhrasi esempilweni. Ukuqonda intsingiselo yembali kunganceda ekufikeleleni imigudu ejoliswe kuyo kumaqela aphantsi. Uphando lubonisa ukuba ngomvoti ozisebenzelayo uthetha ngonyuko lwendawo ephezulu ekwindawo ephezulu ekwiqondo le-5/10 iipesenti phakathi kwabatsha nabavoti abambalwa. Kwangaxesha linye, inkxalabo ekhulayo ngengqibelelo yonyulo ///ukusetyenziswa kwemfundo echuliweyo ngendlela esetyenziswa ngayo ngonyuselo. Utyekelo lokungathemba kwimigangatho yedemokhrasi, elilinganiswe ngovavanyo olusuka kuPew nolu Gallu, luphawu olulumkisayo olumele luchazwe ngokubona mhlophe nangotshintsho.

Isiphelo

Uhlolisiso lwendlela yokwenza unyulo lwembali lunika ingqiqo ecacileyo kwindlela yokuziphatha yokuvota kunye neziphumo zayo zonyulo lwexesha elizayo. Ngokuhlolisisa imizekelo yangaphambili kunye neqela lokudibana nempembelelo yezobugcisa kunye nentsebenziswano zentlalo-ntle-ntle-ntle-------------sibuqonda kakuhle ubuntlola benkqubo yokhetho kunye noonobangela abaphembelela izigqibo. Uphando lwemeko zovota ngo-2008, 2016, kunye no-202020 zibonisa indlela umongo, abazamkeli, kunye namaphulo okuququzelela ukuvelisa iziphumo ezinokuphinda zikwazi ukutshintsha ulungelelaniso lwezopolitiki. Njengoko siqhubeka sihlola ezi meko ukuze sikhuthaze ulwazi nokhetho. Ugcino-lwazi olufana nolo lwaseU.U.U.U.Crebitarussi, uphando, kunye nokhetho lwezi-Prew, ii-ofisi zemfundo zezentellishi, nabahla, abahlali bezama i-mothemi, abafuna ukuphendula kwimicimbi, abasebenzi bexesha lokuphendula kwimicimbi.