Ukuqonda Izivumelwano ezikhuthaza amandla kwimo yePost-Conlict

Izivumelwano zamandla ezixhasa ulawulo ziye zaba sisiseko semigudu yokwakha uxolo lwezizwe ngezizwe ekuchacheni kwimibutho elwayo. La malungiselelo asesikweni afuna ukuphinda alungise amaziko ezobupolitika ukuze akhuphisane ngezantsi ngokunjalo amaqela akhuphisanayo. Ngokufuthi ahluleleneyo ngokweentlalo, amaqela eenkonzo.

Embilinini wayo, isivumelwano esilawula amandla sisivumelwano esithetha indlela amandla ezobupolitika, oovimba, kunye negunya lokwenza izigqibo eziza kwabelwa ngayo phakathi kwabatshaba. Ezi zivumelwano ziphuma kwiinkqubo zoxolo ezintsonkothileyo kwaye zisoloko ziququzelelwa kumgaqo-siseko welizwe okanye kwisivumelwano soxolo olukhethekileyo. Ngoxa amalungiselelo akhethekileyo ayahluka ngokwemeko nganye, amalungiselelo alawulayo amandla aya kuxubusha imilinganiselo emithathu esisiseko: umelo lwezobupolitika, ulawulo lwelizwe, kunye nolwahlulo lovimba wezoqoqosho. Ukuqonda ezi zizinto kuyimfuneko ekuqululeni isizathu sokuba izivumelwano ezithile ziphumelele ekulungiseni amaqumrhuluneli ngexa abanye besenza ezinye iintlanganiso zingasebenzi.

Ubuchule Bokusebenzisa Amandla

Izazinzulu zezobupolitika kunye neengcali zocombululo lwemfazwe zidla ngokuchaza iindlela ezine eziphambili ezinokusetyenziswa ngazo amandla. Isixhobo ngasinye sijolise kwinkalo eyahlukileyo yolawulo kunye nemfazwe, kwaye izivumelwano eziphumelelayo zidityaniswa ngeendlela ezininzi.

1. Oorhulumente Abakhulu Bomanyano

Eyona ndlela ibonakalayo yokuqhubana kwamandla ngumnqophiso omkhulu, apho abameli abavela kuwo onke amaqela amakhulu okanye amaqela banezikhundla kwisebe eliphetheyo. Lo mzekelo, osoloko unxulunyaniswa nenkcazo yenkcubeko ephuhliswa ngu-Arend Lijphart, uqinisekisa ukuba akukho qela linye elinokulawula isigqibo. Ukuqhelisa, imibutho emikhulu ifuna ukuba iipali zecabhate, ii-portpholiphoos, yaye ngamanye amaxesha kwaneendawo zomsebenzi wamakhaya eziphezulu zinikezelwe ngokulinganayo phakathi komqondiso. I-Arechitrythivery esungulwe yi-Govity elungileyo engumzekelo obalaseleyo, apho zombini i-Unist Union kunye namaqela esizwe zifumana izihlalo kurhulumente ezisekelwe kumandla awo onyuliweyo.

2. Umelo lwezomthetho

Iinkqubo ze-Electoral zidlala indima ebalulekileyo ekulawuleni amandla. Iisivumelwano ezininzi zisebenzisa umelo lolungelelwaniso (PR) ukuqinisekisa ukuba amaqela amancinane afumana izihlalo zowiso-mthetho ezilinganayo nolwahlulo lwawo lwabemi. Iinkqubo zePR zinciphisa ubungozi "ophakamiso-onke" iziphumo ezinokususa uluntu olubalulekileyo kwimpembelelo yezobupolitika. Amazwe anjenge-Lebanon neBosnia kunye ne-Herzegovina amkele ubuchule obuntlukwano lwe-PR edityaniswe nolwahlulo lohlanga ukuqinisekisa umelo lwehlelo ngalinye elikhulu.

3. Amandla Amancinane

Ukukhusela amaqela angakhuselekanga ekukhutshweni kwimiba ebalulekileyo yokuzichaza kwawo okanye yokusinda, izivumelwano ezininzi ezilawula amandla ziquka izivumelwano ezincinane. Ezi zivumela iqela elinyuliweyo ukuba lithintele umthetho kwiindawo ezifana namalungelo olwimi, inkqubo yenkcubeko, okanye ubume bengingqi. Ngelixesha amandla eveto engenza iqhina elinqabileyo, akwanika isiqinisekiso esiqinisekileyo sokuba ulawulo lozwilakhe aluzukuphumelela. Ucelomngeni lukulungelelanisa ukhuseleko nolawulo olulawulayo.

4. I-Autonomy ne-Freestlism

Kumazwe ahluleke ngokunzulu anamaqela ajolisekileyo, ulawulo lwelizwe lunika indlela yokulawula igunya elifanelekileyo. Amalungiselelo omanyano okanye amaqela anika imimandla imimandla ukuzilawula okubalulekileyo kwimicimbi yasekuhlaleni ngeli xesha urhulumente osembindini wemiba yesizwe. Imizekelo iquka ummandla ozimeleyo waseSudan phakathi kweSudan (ukuya kwinkululeko yayo) kunye nenkqubo elungeleneyo eBosnia naseHerzegovina, equka izinto ezimbini: iFederation of Bosbos and Herzegovina kanye neRepublika Srpska.

Isizathu Sokuba Kukho Ulawulo Olunamandla: Iingenelo

Xa zenziwe kakuhle kwaye zisetyenziswa, izivumelwano ezilawula amandla zingatshintsha ibutho labantu basemva kokwenza isivumelwano sobundlobongela ngeendlela ezininzi ezibalulekileyo.

Ukuncitshiswa Kogonyamelo Kwangoko

Eyona nzuzo ithe ngqo kukupheliswa kwemfazwe. Ngokunika amaqela alwayo ahamba ngoxolo kwimpembelelo yezobupolitika, amandla ancedisayo asusa injongo yokuqala yokulwa okuqhubekayo. Uphando lweUnited States Institute of Peace[[FLT: 1] lubonisa ukuba amandla apheleleyo alwayo anxulunyaniswa namanani asezantsi emfazweni ekwishumi lokuqala emva kwemfazwe yamakhaya. U-2005 i Comprehensive Peration Aguement in Sudan, umzekelo, iquka urhulumente onamandla okunceda ekupheliseni imfazwe yamakhaya emide kakhulu, nangona kamva isivumelwano sadilika ngenxa yokungaphumeleli.

Ulawulo oluzinzileyo nomthetho

Ukuqhuba ngamandla kwandisa isiseko somthetho karhulumente. Xa onke amaqela abalulekileyo emelwa ekwenzeni izigqibo, imigaqo-nkqubo ephumelayo ibonakala njengelungileyo kwaye iquka. Le ngqiqo ingenza uthelekelelo lukawonke-wonke kumaqumrhu karhulumente, adla ngokutshatyalaliswa ngexesha lemfazwe. KuMzantsi Afrika, uRhulumente woBunye beSizwe owathatha igunya emva konyulo lwango1995, iSizwana seSizwe, neNkatha Freedom Party. Eli lungiselelo linceda ekulawuleni utshintsho localulo lobuhlanga luye lwedemokhrasi ngokuqinisekisa abamhlophe abambalwa ukuba izilangazelelo zabo azinakutyeshelwa.

Utshintsho Oluchaseneyo Nentsebenziswano

Ekuhambeni kwexesha, ulawulo lwamandla lungasusa ulwalamano phakathi kweentshaba zangaphambili kukhuphiswano lwezero-sum luye kucombulula ingxaki. Imfuneko yokulawula imikhosi ephakamileyo edityanisiweyo kumaqela aphikisanayo ukudibana, ukulalanisa, kunye nokwakha ulwalamano lomsebenzi. Le nkqubo ingenza ukungathembani okunzulu nokuyila imikhwa emitsha yentsebenziswano. KuMntla Ireland, ngaphambili kwi-IRA kunye ne-Unian ekhe yaxhasa ugonyamelo ngoku isebenza kunye kurhulumente owehlaziyiweyo, ebonisa ukutshintsha amandla.

Ukuzinziswa Kwezoqoqosho

Impikiswano itshabalalisa uqoqosho, kwaye uxolo oluzinzileyo lubalulekile ukuze kuvuselelwe. Ilungiselelo lolawulo lombane lingafak' isandla ekupheliseni ugonyamelo, ukutsala utyalo-mali lwamanye amazwe, kunye nokunceda ukwakhiwa kwakhona. Xa amaqela ebotshelelwe kwinkqubo yezobupolitika, akwanentshukumisa ukuxhasa iinkqubo zezoqoqosho ezinceda ilizwe liphela. Ilungiselelo lolawulo loxolo eColombia eColombia emva kwesivumelwano soxolo sika FARC sangonyaka 2016 liye lanceda ekunciphiseni ugonyamelo kwimimandla emininzi, lilungiselela indlela yophuhliso lwasemaphandleni kunye noncedo lwamazwe ngamazwe ngamazwe.

Ucelomngeni Nezinto Ezisikelwe U umda

Ngaphandle kokuba inokwenzeka, amandla anokusetyenziswa akuyo ndlela yokunyanga. Abaphengululi noogqirha baye bafumana iingxaki eziliqela eziphindaphindwayo ezinokudodobalisa ukusebenza kwawo.

Ukukhuthaza Ubuhlanga Okanye Amahlelo

Enye yezona zigxeko zinzulu kukukhuthaza ulawulo lwezikhundla ezingundoqo nokukhuthaza ulwahlulo oluthi lwandise ungquzulwano. Ngokumisa iindawo zezobupolitika ezisekelwe kubuhlanga, kunqulo, okanye kwihlelo, ezi zivumelwano zingabangela ukuhlanganisana kwezobupolitika kuloo migca, ziqinisa imida kunokukhuthaza ubuzwe. Lo mngcipheko uyingozi kakhulu kumaqela asemva kombutho okhuthaza uluntu njenge Bosnia neHerzegovina, apho iDayton Sybons yadala inkqubo evuza amaqela esizwe kwaye yenza ukudibana kobuhlanga kube nzima. Abagxeki baphikisa ukuba oku kukhuthaza "ukulwa kwelizwe lobuzwe elinenke" ngamandla, apho abezobupolitika baxhomekeke kwimiqathango yokucenga kwezizwe kunokuba kuwiswe kwiinkqubo zookhiwonga.

Ukwenza izidanga ezijikelezayo kunye neenqanaba

Amandla anokunika abaphangi ngempazamo, .Amaqela angenelwayo ekungazinzini okanye asebenzisa isivumelwano ukuhambisela phambili izilangazelelo ezimxinwa. Umzekelo, xa abalawuli bemfazwe benikwa izikhundla kurhulumente ngaphandle kweemeko zokuthotywa kwezixhobo kunye nokwenziwa kwembumba, angaqhubeka elawula amajoni azimeleyo, acuthe igunya lesizwe. Ngaphezu koko, amanye amaqela angasebenzisa amandla awo okuthintela utshintsho oluyimfuneko, abamba yonke inkqubo yezobupolitika ebanjwayo. Le ngxaki yayibonakala eLebhanon, apho i-Hezbollah ithathelah inxaxheba kurhulumente ngamaxesha athile iye yenza isigqibo esinengxaki enzima kumbandela okwenza utshintsho olufana nokuthotywa kwezixhobo notshintsho.

Ukusilela Nokungafezeki Kweziko

Kwanamandla amiselwe kakuhle amaziko afunekayo abuthathaka okanye angekho. Ukuphunyezwa okuphumelelayo kufuna ukuba ijaji esebenza kakuhle isombululo, inkonzo yoluntu ukuzalisekisa iinkqubo zemithetho, kunye nemikhosi yokhuseleko ekwaziyo ukugcina ucwangco. Kwimimandla emininzi yasemva kwesivumelwano, la maziko atshabalaliswe okanye onakaliswe yiminyaka yemfazwe. Ukungaphumeleli kokulawula amandla ka-2008 eZimbabwe phakathi kwe-zixhobo ze-Zuana-PF kunye neMorTansangi's MDimnjis ibonisa indlela okungasolwa ngayo ukuswela kokuzinikela okunyanisekileyo nokubuthathaka. Ngaphandle kokulawulwa kwamandla emkhosini, i-Mube ikhuselwe ulawulo lwezikhundla nezixhobo zezoqoqosho, abalungise i-MDC.

Inkxalabo yolawulo-melo neyokuphendula

Ukuqhubana kwamandla maxa wambi kungangqubana nemigaqo yedemokhrasi. Ukuqinisekisa iindawo kumaqela athile kungakhathaliseki ukuba ziziphi na iinjongo zokhetho lonyulo kunciphisa ukuthathelwa ityala kwezo nkokeli kunyuselo olubanzi. Abalawuli basenokungakwazi ukususa ukungalungisi okanye ukonakala kwamagosa kuba iindawo zabo zikhuselwe luphawulo lwamandla alawulayo. Ngaphezu koko, ukusetyenziswa kwe-vetoes kunye ne-autority ephezulu kungadala ubuzwilakhe beqaqosho obuncinane, apho imigaqo eqhelekileyo ekhoyo. Ukulungelelanisa imfuneko yokusetyenziswa kwemithetho ephantsi kolawulo lwedemokhrasi nokubuyiselwa kolawulo-demokhrasi ihlala ingumngeni ehlala ixinzekile kwiinkqubo zamandla ezilawulayo.

Uhlolisiso Lwetyala Oluthelekisayo: Izifundo Ezisuka Kwimpumelelo Nesilele

Ukuqwalasela amatyala athile kunika uluvo olubalulekileyo kwiimeko apho imisebenzi yamandla isebenza khona.

UMzantsi Afrika: Umzekelo wokudlulisela amandla

Ukuguqulwa kobuhlanga kusuka kwidemokhrasi kuMzantsi Afrika kudla ngokukhankanywa njengenye yemizekelo ephumelelayo yokulawula ngamandla. Umgaqo-siseko ka 1993 wamisela uRhulumente woManyano Lwesizwe iminyaka emihlanu, apho iANC, iSizwana seSizwe, kunye neInkatha Freedom Partior zabelana ngegunya lolawulo lolawulo-bulunga. ICrucily, eli gunya lokulawula laliyinxalenye yenguqulelo eyongezekayo eyayiquka inkundla eqinile yomgaqo-siseko, iBhili yeRhovisi yamaLungelo, kunye nolawulo oluqinileyo lwebutho labantu. Isivumelwano sanikwa ixesha elimiselweyo, ivumela ukuba iSouth Africa yoMfutho-Afrika itshintshe idemokh ephambili kwimpumelelo yotshintsho loMzantsi Afrika, kuquka ulawulo olunamandla lwephondo, u-Klerlerk, amandla ekwakuwo onke amazwe akhoyo, kunye nolawulo lwezoqoqosho lwawo onke amaqela eeRhulumente.

Ukuphinda ufunde, [[FLT: 0] Iqela lentlalo-ntle yeqela lenkcazo yeqela lehlabathi lenkqubo yoxolo yoMzantsi Afrika inika imvelaphi eneenkcukacha kwingxoxo eyakhokelela kumandla okulawula.

KuMntla Ireland: Ukunyamezela Kodwa Uxolo Olungalawulekiyo

Isivumelwano esenziwe ngendlela ekhethekileyo apho uMphathi-mikhosi Wokuqala noSekela-Mphathi woLutsha enyulwa kunye, emela imimandla emibini emikhulu. Ukusetyenziswa kwemvume efanayo (ukuxhasa inkxaso ekhoyo kunye nabameli besizwe) kuqinisekisa izigqibo eziphambili zokuba akukho namnye onokuthi alawule. Ngoxa la maqela enziwe ngamaxesha amaninzi kutshanje, ukususela ngo-2017 ukuya ku-202020, aye aphinda avuselelwa, ebonisa ukuzinikela okunzulu kwisakhiwo sobume. Iimeko zempumelelo ze-Ireland ziquka inkxaso enamandla engaphandle evela kuMbuso boMbuso noBukhosi base-Ireland, ukubandakanye nokubandakanyeka kwe-United States njengommeli, kunye nokulungelelana kwe-Riphabliki ne-Riphabliki enyanisekileyo. Ngoko ke, ngoko kuvunyiwe, ngoko, izivumelwano zezoqoqosho kunye nezoshishino zemali phantsi kwe-Rrithe, ziye zabangela ukulungelena ukusetyenziswa kwegunya elitsha le-R.

Kenya: Umbane- Usebenza njenge-Term-Term Fix

Emva konyulo lomongameli wama-2007 oluphikiswayo, iKenya yafumana ugonyamelo olusasazekileyo lobuhlanga olwashiya iintlawulo zesizwe ezingaphezu kwe-1000 zifile. Inkqubo yeKenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation, eyaphulwa nguKofi Annan, yavelisa isivumelwano esinamandla esadala urhulumente osebenza kunye nesikhundla soMphathi-mikhosi oyintloko weNkulumbuso weNkolo echasanayo uRaila Odinga. Ngoxa isivumelwano saphumelela ekuzimiseni ugonyamelo sawo kwaye savunyelwa ukuba kubekho utshintsho lwezomGaqo-siseko ngo-2010, yaye isongelo lwabangela ukuxambulisana, urhulumente ongquzulanayo waxakeka ngokuchasene nolwaphulo-mthetho. Amandla ade ajika amaqela ahlala ekho ngaphandle kokulungisa nokulungisa okungundoqo.

IBosnia neHerzegovina: Ungquzulwano Olunemijukujelwa Nogqatso OluneGridi

I-Dayton Peace Agreement eyaphelisa imfazwe yase Bosnia ngo1995 yadala inkqubo entsonkothileyo yamandla anzima kakhulu esekelwe kumlinganiselo wobuzwe kubantu abathathu: iBosniaks, iSerb, ne Croatias. Umgangatho we-modenti ujikeleza phakathi kwamaqela amathathu, kwaye umthetho ongundoqo ufuna ukuvumelana phakathi kwawo. Ngelixesha uDayton igqibe ngempumelelo imfazwe, iye yavala iBosnia kwinkqubo yezopolitiliti yesizwe engekho siseko. Uhlanga luthintela amaqela angeyo ekwakheni igunya, kwaye amandla amakhulu enza ukuba iqela elinye likwazi ukuvala iziguquko. Isiphumo besingumnqaka ongapheliyo, uqoqono lwezoqoqosho, kunye noxolo oluthe qongqothwayo olugcinwe ngabantu abagcini-xolo bezizwe ngezizwe. I-Bosnia ibonisa ulwaphulo-macawane.[0]

Iimeko zolawulo olusebenzayo lwamandla-

Ukuthatha kwezi ngxelo kunye nophando olunzulu, iimeko eziliqela zibonakala zibalulekile ukwenzela ukuba izivumelwano ezilawula amandla zifikelele usukelo lwazo.

  • Ubophelelo oluthe kratya kuwo onke amaqela.[[FLT-1] Ukulawula kudinga ukuvuma okunyanisekileyo ukulalanisa nokuhlala kunye. Xa amaqela ejonga isivumelwano njengeqhinga lokwexeshana okanye indlela yokuphinda afumane iqela, akunakwenzeka ukuba ihlale ixesha elide. UMzantsi Afrika waphumelela kuba zombini iANC kunye neSizwana bezinikele kutshintsho loxolo.
  • [[FLT: 0] Amaziko anezikhundla ezikhulu kunye nomthetho. Asebenza njengesebe lejaji, umsebenzi woluntu ongakhethi buso, kunye nemikhosi yokhuseleko engoochwepheshe ibalulekile ekuzalisekiseni amalungiselelo anamandla okulawula kunye nokusombulula iimpikiswano. Inkxaso yezizwe ngezizwe yokwakhiwa kolawulo ingabaluleka kumazwe abuthathaka.
  • Icacile ixesha okanye iindlela zokuphuma. Amandla angenamda anokuba ngumthombo osisigxina weqhina legridi. Izivumelwano ezininzi eziphumelelayo ziquka iiregithi zokutshona kwelanga, uhlolo, okanye iindlela kwidemokhrasi yephondo xa kufunyenwe uzinzo.
  • [[UMTL:0] Iquka kodwa hayi uyilo olupheleleyo. Isivumelwano kufuneka siquke onke amaqela amakhulu ukukhusela abaphangi, kodwa akufunekanga sitshixe izizukulwana eziphakathi okanye ezizayo. Izicwangciso zokulungisa nokuziqhelanisa zibalulekile.
  • Indima yengingqi yengingqi neyamazwe ngamazwe. Abadlali bangaphandle banganikezela ngenkxaso-mali, ukunyanzelisa, kunye nezikhuthazo zezoqoqosho. Indima ye-European Union kuMntla Ireland nakwindima ye-Afrikaan Union ibonisa ukubaluleka kokuganana kwezizwe ngezizwe.
  • Amanyathelo okwakha uxolo. Amandla-amandla kuphela akanakukwazi ukucombulula zonke iimfazwe. Kufuneka akhatshwe lutshintsho lwecandelo lokhuseleko, ukunciphisa izixhobo, ukwenziwa kwedeyibhikiselo kunye nokubuyiselwa kwakhona (DDR), utshintsho, kunye nokwakhiwa kwakhona kwezoqoqosho.

Ukufikelela okujikelezayo: Ukusuka kwiNdlela yokuQhubelana ukuya kutsho ekudibaniseni

Ukwakhiwa koxolo okuqhubekayo kuya kuqonda ukuba amandla anokubhenela ngokwawo asiyosiphelo kodwa yinxalenye yenkqubo ebanzi yeenguqu zobupolitika. Ngelixesha imodeli zamandulo zijoliswe kuphela kwindawo ephakamileyo yokuhlala, iindlela ezintsha zigxininisa ukubaluleka kokwakha i-octives ezinqumlayo, ukukhuthaza inxaxheba yoluntu, kunye nokukhuthaza ukuvela kweziko eliququzelela elinokuzenza zibonakale ngexesha elithile. Iimodeli ezidibanisa amandla-awo anokudibana nemisebenzi engaphakathi yendlela yokuvota esetyenziswayo.

I- Iziko lophando loxolo i-Oslo (PRIO) iqhube uphando olunzulu kwiziphumo ezinde zexesha lokulawula amandla, ifumana ukuba izivumelwano ezidibanisa zombini amandla kunye nohlobo lwamandla (ukubekwa phambili, ukudityaniswa kwezixhobo) zithambeke kakhulu kunezo zixhomekeke kwinkqubo enye kuphela.

Isiphelo: Ukuqhuba ngamandla njengesixhobo, Asisiso Isicombululo

Izivumelwano zamandla ezilawulayo zingaba zizixhobo ezisebenzayo zokuphelisa ugonyamelo kunye nokutshintsha kogcino-lwazi oluseluxolweni, kodwa impumelelo yazo ixhomekeke kwiqela leemeko eziya ngapha nangapha kombhalo wesivumelwano ngokwaso. Xa zifakwe kwisakhiwo esibanzi solwakhiwo, imigudu yoxolelwaniso yokwenyaniso, kwaye inkxaso exhaswe zweni lonke, amandla ombane anceda abantu baqhube ixesha eliyingozi lokuhamba emva kokufumana ulawulo lwe-demokhrasi. Ngokuchasene noko, xa bebekwe ngaphandle kwe-lonke, benziwa ngokungqongqo kumacala esizwe, okanye benziwe ngokungekho kwakhiwa kwezakhiwo zelizwe, amandla-arharla-ok anokunyusa ukwahlukana nokuthoba ulawulo lwedemokhrasi.

Ubungqina obuvela eMzantsi Afrika, eMntla Ireland, eKenya, eBosnia, kunye nezinye iimeko ezininzi zinikela ukhokelo olucacileyo: ubuchule bokulawula asingomlinganiselo omnye wendlela yokulungisa imicimbi. Abaxhasi kufuneka baqwalasele ngenyameko imbali nganye yebutho, isakhiwo soluntu, kunye namandla amiselweyo phambi kokuyila ucwangciso lwamandla. Imisebenzi ephumelelayo yileyo ilungelelanisa ulawulo, ikhuselwa ngolawulo, nozinzo olufutshane lwexesha ngalinye, nosukelo olufutshane lwenjongo yokwakha uluntu olunye lwezobupolitika. Ekugqibeleni, amandla-ontathe-mandla ayindlela yokuyila uxolo, okusesikweni, kunye nokugcina umphakathi kufuneka uxolelwano, kufuneka kungakhangelwani nje ukuba lunqandwe ngogonyamelo, kodwa lungakhuselwe nje kuphela, kodwa ngolawulo lwedemokhrasi olululululululungeleyo.