Indima Yezinhlansi Zokuphoqelela Emikhankasweni Yokungatholi Imininingwane Phakathi Nokhetho

Izinkathi zokukhetha ziye zaba yindawo yokwaziswa, lapho umehluko phakathi kophenyo oluqotho nohlelo lwezinqubo ufinyele kakhulu. Phakathi kwamathuluzi awumshoshaphansi kakhulu enqolobaneni yamaza anamuhla kuphendulwa impoqo. Ngokungafani nokucwaninga okungokomthetho, okufuna ukulinganisa umbono womphakathi, ukuphoqelelwa kuyinqubo yokuxhumana kwezombangazwe ebonakala njengendlela yokuhlola ecacile yokulungisa [1] kunokulinganisa imiqondo. Loluhlobo lokusebenzisa izikhali zokuzivikela lukwenza kube yiqiniso ukukhomba ukusakaza ukwaziswa okungakhisi, ukuqinisa ukulandisa okungamanga, nokuvimbela ukuphenyelwa kwezindaba zomphakathi. Enkathini yokusetshenziswa kwezombangazwe okuthuthukiswe kwezombangazwe kanye nokwaziswa kwamanani okuye kwandayo, ukuqonda imigomo, umlando, nezindlela zokulwa ukuhlola kuphoqeleleka noma ubani ekukhetheni.

Ukuphumelela kwenhlolo ephoqelelayo kusebucishini bayo. Izinqumo ezigunyaziwe ukuthemba "isayensi" ngokuvamile zibanjwa zingaqashelwa, zizenza zifune ukuzwa imibiko efingqiwe ephambene. Lemisebenzi ayiqoqi nje kuphela ukwaziswa; ifaka ubuthi enkulumweni yezombangazwe. Njengoba imikhankaso yokususa ulwazi iya ngokuya iyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, ihlukanisa phakathi komzamo ongokomthetho wokuhlola umbono womphakathi kanye nomzamo osunzelwe ukuyisebenzisa ingenye yezinselele ezinkulu kakhulu ezibhekene nezinhlangano zentando yeningi namuhla.

Ziyini Izinhlansi Eziphoqelelayo?

Phakathi nendawo, ukuhlola okuphoqelelweyo kuyindlela yokuthengisa ngocingo noma yokuhlola ngemidwebo esetshenziswa kakhulu phakathi nemikhankaso yezombangazwe ukusakaza ukwaziswa okubi, ngokuvamile okudukisayo ngombhalisa noma ngempoqo. INhlangano yaseMelika ye-Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) ichaza ukuphoqelela njengokuhlola kwezombangazwe njengokusebenza okushaya ukucwaninga okungokomthetho, lapho injongo ingekho ukuqoqa ukwaziswa okuphambene, kodwa ukuqoqa kusuka ku-"push" ku-mbhalisa omunye umvoti noma kwenye. Lezi zingcingo zivame ukuthatha imizuzu embalwa kuphela, zibuze imibuzo engosini yomvoti, futhi zichithe isikhathi eside zibuza imibuzo eholayo ngephutha esithile.

Inhlolo - vo esemthethweni incike kwindlela e-operayo, kuhlanganise nobukhulu obungabikwayo, ukulinganisela, nolimi olungathathi hlangothi. Ngokungafaniyo, ukuphoqelela izibalo kuhilela isampula elincane (nakuba kufanele uhlasele inombolo ethile yenani labantu noma isifunda), buza imibuzo ethwele ulimi lwe-pejoratic, futhi inikeze ukukhanya okungaphelele ngokuphathelene nezindlela zokuhlola. Okuwukuphela kwesilinganiso sempumelelo yokuhlola okuphoqelelwe akukona ukunemba kokwaziswa kwayo kodwa ukuphumelela kokuthonya kwayo. Izazi ezihlolele ekucwaningeni okungokomthetho ziboshwe ngezimiso zezimiso zokuvikela izindaba eziyimfihlo nokubika ukwaziswa ngokwethembeka, kuyilapho amathuluzi efaka impoqo yokuhlola ngaphandle kokukhomba.

Inkulumo ingadida. Imikhankaso eminingi esemthethweni yenza "ukuhlolwa kwemiyalezo" noma "ukuhlolwa kokucwaninga komthunja" okuhlanganisa ukwaziswa okungaqondile. Umehluko oyinhloko yinhloso nokwambulwa. Ukuhlola komyalezo okusemthethweni kuzakunikeza ukukhetha okulinganiselwe futhi kuzakuveza ngalowo msuka. Ngokuphambene, ukuhlola okuphoqelelwe, kuklanyelwe ukufihla umthombo wako futhi kusebenzise ukungalinganiseki, ulimi lokuqamba. Akukona ukucwaninga; kuwukuxhumana okufihlekile okufihlwa ngokokucwaninga.

Imishini Yokusebenzisa Izikhali

Ukuze siqonde ukuthi kungani ukuphenya okuphoqelelwayo kuphumelela kangaka, umuntu kumelwe ahlole izimiso ezingokwengqondo azisebenzisayo. Lemisebenzi iklanyelwe ukucophelela hhayi nje ukuze yazise, kodwa ukuze ibangele ukusabela okungokomzwelo okungacaci kahle. Amagama aqondile emibuzo, ukuhleleka okubuzwa ngakho, futhi isimo salobizo siklanyelwe ukuguqula ukucunula okuqondile komqondo.

Umphumela Obuhlungu

Ingqondo yezezombangazwe isikisela ukuthi abavoti banga "babekwa" ehlaziyweni" ukuze bacabangele izimpikiswano ezithile lapho behlola umbhalisa. Ngokubuza umbuzo ofana nothi, "Ingabe kungathinta ukuvota kwakho ngo-X uma wazi ukuthi babebekwe icala lokungalawuleki ngokwezimali?", inqununu yokuvota yokuhloba ukuba ihlanganise u-X nehlazo. Ngisho noma umvoti elahla icala elithile, inhlangano ingenziwa. Lomphumela owe-printa ungahlala izinsuku eziningi, uthonye indlela abaculi abachaza ngayo ukulandisa noma izikhangiso ezilandelayo. Ubuchopho buma entweni eyisimweni esibi, yenza kube lula ukukhumbula kamuva.

Ukwanda Kwenkolo Nomphumela Wobuhlanya

Ukuhlola okuphoqelelwayo kuvame ukusebenzisa "ulimi lwe-banwagon", njengo-"Abavoti abaningi bafulathela u-Y ngenxa yokuma kwabo kuZ. Lokhu kwakha iqiniso eliyiphutha lezenhlalo. Izidalwa ezingokwenhlalo; ngokuvamile zithembela ekuziphatheni kwabanye ukuze zenze izinqumo. Ngokusho ukuthi bashintsha umbono, ukuvota okuphoqelelwe kudala isiprofetho sokuzigcwalisa. Umvoti angase acabange, "Uma wonke umuntu eshiya i-Candidate Y, kumelwe abe nesizathu esihle." Lelisu liphumelela kakhulu okhethweni abaholi abaqalayo lapho ukwethembeka kungenakuqina khona.

Ukusebenzisa Izinkulumo Ezingafanele Ngobuqili

Ngokungafani nesakhi esiphambene esingaphendulwa futhi sihlolwe, ukuhlola okuphoqelelwe kusebenza endaweni empunga. Lokhu kwaziswa kunikezwa ngokuzenzakalela kophendlo olungathathi hlangothi, okwenza abavoti bangacubunguli kakhulu ekuhloleni lokho okushiwoyo. Uma umvoti ebona i-athopi elingumzuzwana, uyazi ukuthi iyinkulumo ekhohlisayo. Kodwa uma "ikhotho" libuza umbuzo, umvoti angathatha isisekelo esithile esiyiqiniso. Le nkolelo ewumsuka ekukhungatheki ibangela ukuphenya imoto enethonya eliyingqayizivele lokusakaza "isibambiso" enzima ukuyilungisa kamuva. Ulwazi olungamanga lufakwa ngokuqondile engqondweni yovoti ngaphandle kwezindlela zokuzivikela ezivame ukuthathwa ngokukhangisa.

Umbono Ongokomlando: Ukuphoqelela Izinhlaka Ezingcolile Kuyasebenza

Nakuba igama elithi "push kuphethiso" lathandwa kakhulu kuma 1990, lelisu linomsuka ojulile empini yezombangazwe yaseMelika. Esinye sezibonelo ezidume kakhulu senzeka phakathi nonyaka ka 2000 South Carolina Republican wekhulu. Ngokwezibalo ezibikwa kabanzi, i-Senator uJohn McCain wabuza uvoti, "Ungakhetha kakhulu ukuvota uJohn McCain uma wazi ukuthi wazala umntwana omnyama ongekho emthethweni?" Umbuzo wawuyikhomba endodakazini yakhe eyamukelwa eBangladesh. Lokhu kuhlasela kobuhlanga nokujulile kuye kwaklanyelwa ukululaza ukuthembeka kuka-Mc Cain'ston owendelekayo.

Ngokomlando, ukusetshenziswa kwemikhankaso yokucindezela kwakulinganiselwe ngezindleko eziphakeme zocingo olude. Nokho, ukufika kwezimiso "zokukhala" zobuchwepheshe ne-Wounce ku-IP (VoIP) kwanciphisa kakhulu izindleko. Ngokokucwaninga okwakhishwa Prew Research Center, umkhuba wakhuliswa ngokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obudingwa yizimoto, uvumela umkhankaso owodwa ukwenza izigidi zezingcingo ngempelasonto eyodwa. Lokhu kuhlola okwenziwa yi-Protting Center yokuhlola i-partment ye-rectory.

Ukhetho lukamongameli luka-2008 lwabona igagasi lemibono ephoqelelweyo ehlobene nemibono yozungu. Izimemezelo zacelwa ukuba zivotelwe, "Ingabe ungakhetha uBarack Obama uma wazi ukuthi ungumSulumane? noma "Ingabe bekungathinta ukuvota kwakho uma wazi ukuthi u-Obama akazalelwanga e-United States? ukwenziwa utalagu lweqiniso, ukuphinda umbuzo elungiselelweni lokuhlola kwanikeza intengo yozungu intebeko yomthetho. Inhlangano ye-Openst Apply yokucwaninga yomphakathi iyaqhubeka, nakuba ingekho ekwazini ukukhohlisela inqubo, ingayinciphini ekucwaningweni okungokomthetho.

Umkhankaso wokungavumelani nokwaziswa: Umpova olusemthethweni oluyi-v. Ukuxosha

Umehluko phakathi kokuhlolwa kombono womphakathi osemthethweni nokungavumelani nokwaziswa umzila wokuqala wokuvikela izintatheli nabavoti. Umehluko usobala uma wazi ukuthi yini ongayifuna. Ukuhlola okusemthethweni kulawulwa ukuqina kwesayensi kanye nokubona okuhle, kuyilapho ukuphenya okuphoqelelwe kulawulwa inkohliso ehleliwe.

Izimpawu Eziyinhloko Zenhlava Efanele

  • I-Sampling ephambili: Isebenzisa izindlela zezibalo eziqinile (umzk., isilinganiso esingahleliwe se-vtifit, amathuba okuvela). Isilinganiso sobukhulu sikhulu ngokwanele ukuba sifinyelele i-cester ethile yephutha (ngokuvamile +-3% kuya ku-5%).
  • [[NTL:0] Ukungathathi-mdlalo-mthetho: Imibuzo ilinganiselwe futhi ugweme ulimi olulayishiwe. Njengesibonelo: "Uyayisekela noma uphikisa icebo lentela lika-X?" awuthathi hlangothi. "Ingabe uyalisekela icebo lika-X lokukhokha intela ngokunganaki elizophuca isigaba esiphakathi?”
  • [ I-pollsparence ne-Dischour: izichaza ngokucacile kanye nenhlangano exhasayo. Ngokubiza okungokomthetho, umxoxisi uzosho igama lakhe, inhlangano ayisebenzelayo, kanye nenjongo yokubiza ngokushesha.
  • Imiphumela engcono: Umphumela oyinhloko yimininingwane. Imiphumela idedelwa umphakathi, indlela ivezwa, futhi abahlaziyi abazimele bangaqinisekisa okutholakele.
  • [ Ukuqeqeshelwa ukuthatha indiva: Abaxoxi bolwazi baqeqeshelwa ukufunda imibuzo njengoba ibhalwe futhi bagweme ukuthonya iphendu.

Izici Eziyinhloko Zempova Ecindezelayo

  • Ncinci, Isampula ehlosiwe: Ngokuvamile izingcingo ezingamakhulu ambalwa kuphela ezisezifundeni ezithile noma ezinhlalweni zabantu. Lokhu kuqinisekisa "ukungalawuleki" kanye nezimpukane ngaphansi kweradars yezinhloli zangempela.
  • Imibuzo Emincane: Imibuzo iqukethe ukumangalela noma izimbangela ezingokomzwelo. Umbuzo uyimoto yokuhlasela. Isibonelo: "Ukwazi ukuthi iCandite Y iyovota ukuphakamisa izintela, ingabe ungayisekela na?
  • Uphawu lokufihla: Umshayeli angasho ukuthi uvela "enkampanini yokufuna" kodwa enqaba ukuqamba igama lekhasimende. Ucingo luklanyelwe ukufihla umsuka walo wezombangazwe.
  • Akukho miphumela eluhlaza ekhutshwe: ayikhishelwa ngoba isilinganiso asizange sibe umgomo. "ukhomo" unyamalala ngemva komjikelezo wokhetho.
  • I-pase: Ucingo luhamba ngokushesha kakhulu. Umxoxisi akanesithakazelo emininingwaneni yakho yobuni benani labantu noma izimpendulo eziyinkimbinkimbi; bafuna ukuthatha imibuzo ebhalwe phansi yokuhlasela ngokushesha.

Ukuqonda lokhu kungafani kunika izakhamuzi amandla okwenza isinqumo esisekelwe olwazini lapho zithola ucingo noma isigijimi ezingasicelanga.

Izigodi Ezingokwasemthethweni Nezimpunga Ezivamile

Umthetho wokuhlola okuphoqelelwayo uyisici futhi ngokuvamile ulandela amasu asetshenziswa abadlali ababi. E-United States, iSichibiyelo sokuqala sivikela inkulumo enkulu yezombangazwe, kuhlanganise nenkulumo edukisayo noma engamanga, nakuba ingavikeli ekungcolisweni noma ukukhohlisa. Lokhu kudala igebe elikhulu elingokomthetho. Ngoba ukuhlola okuphoqelelweyo kuhlolwayo kuhlolwa ngokobucukubhene "inteki" ehlobene nomfundi, izinkantolo ngokuvamile bezinqikaza ukuyibekela imingcele, ngisho nalapho lokho okuqukethweyo kungamanga.

Eminye imibuso iye yazama ukulawula lomkhuba. Ngokwesibonelo, imithetho eFlorida, e-Ohio, nase Texas ifuna ukuba abashayeli baqaphele ukuthi ubani okhokhela lenhlolo - vo. Nokho, lemithetho inzima kakhulu ukugcinwa. Umphathi wokuhlola angamane athi uqhuba ucwaningo olungokomthetho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukusetshenziswa kwezinkampani zamasheke namasheke angafunwayo kwenza ukuba kulandele umthombo wezimali cishe ongenakufezeka. I-Federals Commission (FCC) futhi inemithetho ephathelene nezingcingo ezizingcingo zezimoto ezigunyaziweyo.

Ngokombono wezimiso zokuziphatha, ukusebenzisa iziphetho eziphoqelelayo kuphula izimiso eziyisisekelo zokucwaninga ezichazwe yi-AAPOR. Lezizimiso zidinga ubuqotho, ukwethembeka, nokubona. Ngophendulwa ngokudukisa ngamabomu ngohlobo lwalokho kubizwa, abacukumemezeli balimaza idumela layo yonke imboni yokuhlola. Banezela ekuncipheni kwenani lokuhlola okungokomthetho, okwenza kube nzima kakhulu kososayensi bezenhlalakahle ukuba bahlole umbono womphakathi ngokunembile. Ukuwohloka kwezimiso kudlulela ngalé komvoti nje; kulimaza isisekelo somphakathi esidingekayo kuhulumeni omelele idemocratic.

Ukushintsha Kwezingcingo Zokusunduza

Nakuba ukuphenya okungokwesiko kuwucingo, inkathi yobuchwepheshe yenze ukuba icebo linciphe, lisheshe futhi libe nzima ukulilandela. Ama-communi awezokuxhumana manje ayisici esivundile sokuphehla. i-Online "survey" isakazwa ngezikhangiso ezihloselwe kuFacebook, Twitter, noma i-Instagram isebenza ngendlela efanayo, kodwa ngenzuzo eyengeziwe yokuhamba ngemicropu.

Ukuhlola okucitshwayo kwemishini kungahlolwa ngokunemba kokuhlinza ngokusebenzisa imininingwane evela kumafayela abavoti. Umkhankaso ungaveza abavoti abaqondile, abangahloniphiwe esifundeni esijiyile futhi ubanike "i-"iqala ngevidiyo noma umbhalo ohlasela umphikisi. Ngoba lokhu kwenzeka endaweni evalekile ye-mituday, akubonakali kubacoli nakubacwaningi abaphikisayo. I-alytics yalezi zihlolo zohlu-mali ingabuye idle emfanekisweni we-data yomkhankaso, ibavumele ukuba bacwenge imiyalezo yabo yokuhlasela ngesikhathi esingokoqobo.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukunyuka kwamazwi anezinga le-Al kuye kwenza ukuncishiswa kwe-ropocall kubangela ingozi enkulu. Ku-2024 New Hampshire, abavoti bathola izingcingo ezalingisa izwi likaMongameli Joe Biden, ezibatshela ukuba bangavoti emvelweni eyinhloko. Lokhu kwamelela ukunyuswa okuphawulekayo ekusetshenzisweni kwe-generative AIA ekucindezelweni kwevoti. FactC. org namanye amaqembu abaphathi baye babika ukuphakama kwe-inthanethi "quiz" amafomu asebenza ngendlela efanayo ukusunduza ukuphenya izinqunyu, ebuza imibuzo efana neyo, "Ukhathazekile ukuthi uCaltivene shobose uZ] jamplantine no-x?

I-tekisi-lebula ku-ckup ku-ckup ku-spects ezinhlawulweni ezicindezelayo futhi ziba yizinhloli ezikhona. Umsebenzisi wamukela umbhalo ofana nokuhlolwa kocingo, uchofoza umxhumanisi, futhi unikezwa ngochungechunge lwemibuzo ekha phezulu. Lemibhalo ishibhile ukuthumela, kunzima ukuyilandelela, futhi inenani elivulekile kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa ne-imeyili. Ukuguqula izikhawu kususe izithiyo zamabhange ocingo, kuvumela umsebenzisi oyedwa ukuba afinyelele izigidi zabavoti ngomkhankanyo wenani elincishiwe lezindleko.

Indlela Yokubona Neyokulwisana Nezinhlansi Ezingcolisayo

Ukulwisana nokwaziswa kudinga indlela ebekelwe i-odocuments, kusukela ekungaqinisekini komuntu ngamunye kuya ekuqondiseni izikhungo. Alikho ikhambi elizoyeka ukucindezela izicelo ngokuphelele, kodwa inhlanganisela yemfundo, ezobuchwepheshe, nomthetho kunganciphisa kakhulu ithonya layo.

Ku Volunte: Yiba Umthelisi Ongaqinisekisiyo "Wamadolova"

  • [ Uqaphe noma uphikise: Uma ukuhlola kuqala ngokumangalela noma ukusebenzisa okusobala, kumane kuqede ucingo. Ungaqiniseki noma uphikise isikhundla sakho sokuvota.
  • Buza imibuzo Eqondisiwe: Ngaphambi kokuba uphendule, buza: "Ubani oxhasa lenhlolo-zincwadi?" no"Unganikeza umphathi wakho inombolo yokuxhumana?" Umkhombisi osemthethweni uzonikeza lokwaziswa. Umbheki wenhlawulo ocindezelayo uzakubalekela noma abeke ihlombe.
  • Umbiko wezindaba: Imibiko yehele neFederal Trade Commission (FTC) ngokuphathelene nokukhwabanisa okungavela, kanye negunya lohulumeni wakho lokukhetha. Nakuba bengase bangaphenyi zonke izikhalo zomuntu ngamunye, umqulu omkhulu wemibiko ungavusa uphengululo.
  • I-Diversation Informations: Unganciki emthonjeni owodwa wokwaziswa kwezombangazwe. Uma uzwa ukusho okushaqisayo "kuyi-ivolution," ukuqinisekisa ngemithombo yezindaba ezimele noma izingosi ezihlola amaqiniso ngaphambi kokushintsha umbono wakho.

Izintatheli Nezihlongozo Eziyiqiniso

  • I-project Methory: Scritifica ubungakanani besibonelo, amagama, kanye nomxhasi wanoma ikuphi ukuhlola okukhonjwe ekuhlanganiseni. Uma indlela yokusebenza ifinyele, ukuhlola cishe kuyi-athonsi esunduzayo.
  • Sebenzisa indawo yakho ephezulu ukuchaza umehluko phakathi kokuhlola okungokomthetho nokusunduza izinqumo. Sebenzisa izindaba phakathi nenkathi yokukhetha eziqaphelisa abavoti imibhalo yokuhlola evamile esunduza.
  • [ Ukuxhasa: Landela imali. Izintatheli zingasebenzisa amarekhodi emali yezezimali ukulandelela izikhangiso futhi zibize ama-PAC noma abafuna ukubhapathizwa, bedalula abaculi bomkhankaso wokudilizwa kwemininingwane.

Ngemikhankaso Nabaholi

  • [ Imithetho e-Adopter Strong: Umshicileli womthetho odinga ukuxhaswa okugcwele kokwaziswa kwazo zonke izingcingo zezombangazwe, kokubili ezizihambelayo futhi eziphilayo. Vala i-accept evumela "i-advocacy" ukudlula imithetho yezezimali.
  • [[I- Isabelo se-Platform:[ Izinkampani zezokuxhumana kufanele zithathe izikhangiso zenhlawulo njengezikhohlisayo futhi zizenqabe. Kufanele zivimbele izikhangiso ezibonakala njengezihlola kodwa zibuze imibuzo edidayo.
  • [ Izindinganiso ze-Ethical Special: Imikhankaso kufanele isayine izifungo zokungasebenzisi izinqumo ezisunduzayo. Ama-apper angochwepheshe anjenge-APOR kufanele anikezwe imithombo eyengeziwe yokuhlola nokuhlazisa obala.

Ingqungquthela yesizwe yeSizwe yeMithetho yeZwe [NCSL] inikeza inzuzo enhle kakhulu yemithetho kahulumeni yokulandela imithetho ehlobene nokusunduza ukuphenya nokuxhumana komkhankaso. Ukuqonda uhlelo olungokomthetho esizweni sakho kuyisinyathelo esinamandla sokuziphendulela.

Isiphetho: Gcina Ubuqotho Bebhokisi Lebhola

Ukuhlola kokucindezela kumelela ukonakala okungakholeki kwenqubo yentando yeningi. Basebenzisa kabi indawo yokukhokha izimali emninimeni nasekucwaningeni ukuze bafake amanga, baphakamise ukungabaza, futhi bacindezele ukuhlanganyela. Njengoba ubuchwepheshe benza lamacebo ayinkimbinkimbi kakhulu . Ukusuka kumabhange ocingo ukuya kuma-Al-geerated "i-pronocalls kanye nezikhangiso ezisemgceni ezincane ezifakiweyo. . .Umthwalo ungena kubo bonke abagcini zincwadi ukuba bahlale beqaphile. Usongo alukhona nje kubantu ngabanye, kodwa wona kanye umqondo wokhetho olunolwazi.

Ngokufuna ukuba kube lula, ukusekela izindinganiso zokuziphatha ezimiswe yizinhlangano ezinjenge APAOR, nokuhlomisa izakhamuzi ngamathuluzi okufunda imithombo yezindaba, singaqinisekisa ukuthi ukhetho lunqunywa ngabavoti abanolwazi, hhayi ngobuciko bokuphoqelela ukuphenya. Ukulwa nokususa iprojekthi kuwumjaho wezikhali oqhubekayo, kodwa ukuhlukanisa nokungathathi hlangothi ukuphendulwa kwenkani kuyimpi esingayinqoba. Kudinga ukuhlanganyela ngenkuthalo kwabavoti abangafuni ukulawulwa, izintatheli eziphethe amandla, nabalawuli abagcina imithetho yokudlala ngokulunga. Ukwethembeka kwebhokisi le-bhola lomdlalo kuxhomeke kuyo.