Kunezinyathelo eziphakeme zemikhankaso yezombangazwe, zimbalwa izinqubo eziqondwa kabi noma ezicashiswe ngamabomu njengokuhlola. Ngokungafani nokuhlolwa kombono womphakathi oklanyelwe ukulinganisa umzwelo, ukugqugquzela ukuphenya kusungulwa izinto zethonya, eziklanyelwe ukushukumisela abavoti esiphethweni esinqunyiwe kusengaphambili kunokuqoqa ukwaziswa okuqotho. Abacwaningi bemikhankaso abazisebenzisayo bathengisa ngokufihla ingqondo: bahlela imibuzo, bakhethe ulimi, futhi bakhethe ukuthi yimaphi amaqiniso akhona ngokuhlola kotyando. Umphumela uyithuluzi lokuxhumana elinomuzwa wokuhlola kodwa elisebenza njengempikiswano ehloselwe. Ukuqonda indlela lemiklamo embula ngayo hhayi nje kuphela abaqondisi bezokuphamba okulawula okungongongongo okungokwezombangazwe kodwa futhi nezingabonwayo ezingqondweni zokuhlola kolwazi.

Lesi sihloko sikhipha izinqubo ezithile ezisetshenziswa ochwepheshe bezemisebenzi ukuze bathole ukusabela okufiselekayo ngokuhlola ngokucindezela, bahlole imingcele yezimiso ezifanele nezomthetho abayisebenzisayo, futhi banikeze iseluleko esisebenzayo kubavoti abafuna ukuqaphela lapho bebuzwa khona. Noma usebenza emikhankasweni, ufunda ukuxhumana kwezombangazwe, noma umane nje ufuna ukuba isakhamuzi esinolwazi ngokwengeziwe, wazi ukuthi umsebenzi wokuhlola uyingxenye ebalulekile ekuqondeni ukuvota kwanamuhla.

Indima Ephawulekayo Yezinhlaka Zokubhucunga Eziminyangweni Zanamuhla

Umehluko Okhona Ekungcoleni Okungokomthetho

Izinhloso zangempela zokuhlola ukulinganisa umbono womphakathi ngokunembile usebenzisa amazwi emibuzo, isampula engakhethiyo, nezindinganiso eziqinile zendlela. Izinhlangano ezinjenge- American Association for Public Opinical Research (]]] APOR[]) iziqondiso zobuchwepheshe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi ukuhlola kubonisa izimo zeqiniso. Ukuhlola, ngokuphambene, akuklanyelwe ukulinganisela. Izingxoxo eziyengayo zifihlwa ngokwezinqwqe. Umelwayo angase aphendule ukuthi umbuzo awuthathi hlangothi, kodwa umbuzo ngokwawo uyimoto wesikho onecala eliphambeneyo. Umehluko: ukuhlola okusemthethweni kuvikela ubuqotho bemininingwane; ukuphehla kwe-testry.

Izinto Ezivamile

Ochwepheshe bezomkhankaso bahlela izinqumo zokuhlola ukuze bafinyelele imigomo eminingana eqondile:

  • Dlula idumela lomphikisi [ - ngokuletha ukwaziswa okungakhi noma ukuzihlanganisa nezikhundla ezingathandwayo (umz., “Ingabe uyazi ukuthi u-X uvote ngokumelene nezimali zomphikisi ka-Actrial kathathu?”).
  • U-Reinforence umfanekiso oqondile[ - ngokufaka isigqebhezana esizothatha isigqebhezana njengendlela engcono yokukhetha kulendaba (umz., “Ingabe uyayisekela imizamo ka-Y yokwehlisa izintela zempahla?”).
  • Ukucindezelwa kubuye kubuye [ - ngokwenza abasekeli bomphikisi bazizwe bedumele noma ukuthi umjaho usunqunyiwe kakade (umz., “ochwepheshe abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi i-Candidate Z ayinathuba ("uhlela ukuvota").
  • yenza ithonya elinamandla [ - ngokusikisela ukuthi iningi kakade lithanda umuntu othile ozovota (umz., “Abangaphezu kuka-60% babavoti esifundeni sakho manje basekela i-Candidate A=* iyakushintsha umbono wakho?”).
  • I-insect - nakuba lokhu kufiphaza umugqa, eminye imikhankaso icindezela ukuhlola ukuthi yimiphi imigqa yokuhlasela ezwakala kakhulu ngaphambi kokuba ifake imali ezikhangisweni ezikhokhelwayo.

Intambo evamile iwukuthi “ukhonkolo” awusona ithuluzi elingathathi hlangothi kodwa uyindlela yokungenela eklanyelwe ukushintsha izingqondo, hhayi ukuzilinganisa.

Izindlela Zomklamo Zokudweba Ezingasho Ukusabela Okuqondile

Izazi zomkhankaso ezinekhono zisebenzisa amashumi eminyaka zokucwaninga ngengqondo, ngolimi nangethonya lezenhlalo ukuze zifake imibuzo yokuhlola ezwakala ingokwemvelo kodwa ihole abantu ababuzwayo endleleni enqunyiwe. Lezi zinqubo azivamile ukusetshenziswa ukuze zisetshenziswe ngokuzehlukanisa; zisekelwe ukuze ziveze ithonya elithonyayo.

Imibuzo Eholayo Nolimi Olunzima

Imibuzo ephambili iyisu lokuhlola okungagwegwesi kakhulu. Kunokuba ubuze ukuthi “Uyini umbono wakho ngo-Candidate Smith?” Ukuhlola okucindezelayo kungabuza:“ Uyavuma ukuthi izinqubo zikaMfundikazi uSmith ziye zalimaza amabhizinisi endawo futhi zabiza izindleko?” Umbuzo uthatha i-priging (ukuthi izinhlelo zika Smith ziwalimaze amabhizinisi) bese ucela isivumelwano. Impendulo icindezelwa ngokuqondisiwe ukuba iqinise noma ibonakale ihamba phambili. Uma i-aced transched transfect iqinisa lomphumela. Amagama afana no- “corpt,” “okt,”“ awenzédifish,” futhi “exmist,” futhi “exmist, noma “exme quent ." iveza ukukhuluphala okungokomzwelo. Uma iphambana negama lomvoti, akhanya njengelungu le-consotion.

Ulwazi Olukhethayo Nezimfundiso Zamanga

Ukuhlola okuphoqelelwe ngokuvamile kusebenza esimisweni se- esenza ukuba ukhethe ukuchayeka .

Ukwakha I - Consensus Yamanga Noma Umphumela Wama - bangwagon

Abantu bayizilwane ezingokwenhlalo, futhi imibono yethu ithonywe yilokho esibona kuwumbono omkhulu. Ukuhlola kokucindezela kusebenzisa lokhu ngokuthatha indiva ngokulandelana. Umbuzo ungaqala: “Ucwaningo lwamuva luthole ukuthi abangu-7 kwabangu-10 abavoti esifundeni senu bakholelwa ukuthi u-Chondite X akanalwazi kakhulu ukuba angasingatha inhlekelele. Ingabe uyavuma?” Ngisho noma ukuhlolwa okusha kwezenyunyana kuyaphindwa noma kuphikiswa, abathakazeli bangalungisa umbono wabo siqu ukuze bavumelane neningi abathi basho okufanayo. Umphumela unyuswa lapho imibuzo eminingi iphinda ivumelana. Lendlela inamandla ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokungacunuki noma u-rensityhostism encike ebufakazini obungokwenhlalo njengesinqumo esiphuthumayo.

Ubugebengu Obucashile Nokumba

Ukuphambanisa kusebenza ngokuhlela izici ezithile zengqondo ngaphambi kokuba kwenziwe isinqumo. Inhlolo - vo ecindezelayo ingabuza uchungechunge lwemibuzo ngokuphathelene namazinga obugebengu, ukusongela kwamaphekula, noma ukungahleleki kwezomnotho ngaphambi kokubuza ngekhono lombhalisa. Umongo ophambene wemizwelo uyaqhubeka, okwenza ukuba ababuzwayo baqaphele ukuthi uhloniphi abafuna ukuhlolwa abangafanele. Ukungahloniphi, indlela ehlobene nayo, iletha inani elingaphezulu kakhulu noma elisikiselayo ekuhloleni. Ngokwesibonelo: “Uma ufundile ukuthi uCandida Smith wamukela uR150 000 eminikelweni yeminikelo yenkampani kawoyela, ingabe ingathonya ukuvota kwakho?” Isibalo esiphezulu semali esibonisa ukonakala ngisho noma iminikelo yalowo mvoti ohlolile ngempela. Umonakalo usuke wenze inombolo egawunywe.

Izindawo Ezimpunga Nezomthetho

Izimiso zokuphoqelela ukuphenya ziphikiswa kakhulu. Abagxeki baphikisa ngokuthi ngenxa yokuphoqelela ukuhlolwa kufihla injongo yabo yokuthonya, bakhohlisa abavoti futhi bangcolise indawo ezungezile yokwaziswa. Abasekeli (ngokuvamile abasebenza emkhankasweni) bathi bamane nje baluhlobo “lokuhlola imiyalezo” noma“ imfundo yezezimali” evikelwe ngenkululeko yokukhuluma. Iqiniso libonakala licacile kakhulu, futhi ukuqondisa kuyisidina.

Ukubukeka Okuphakeme

E-United States, ukuphenya kulawulwa kancane ngokwezinga likahulumeni. I-Federal Evotion Commission (FEC) ayicabangi ukuthi ukuhlola okuningi kuphoqelela ukuba kube “ukucindezela ukubhalisa” noma“ izindleko eziqiniswe kakhulu,” ngakho kuyahluleka ngaphandle komkhankaso wezezimali. Nokho, ezinye izifunda-mazwe zinemithetho efuna ukutshelwa kwemali yokuhlola. Njengesibonelo, [[FLT: 0]] i-California[ futhi futhi [[FLT:]] New York[FL:3] [FFFT] igunyaza okuthiwazisa ukuziphatha kombutho okugunyazayo. Okunye kusho ukuthi, njengase [FLT: [FLD] [FFogn] i-ogssionssionssionsssssting] engokomthetho engokomthetho wesifundazwe sesifundazwe i-onke, i-eviviviced Revicencessting i-od Revotion i-od.[5]

Ukubona Okuqondile Nokukhohlisa

Ngisho nalapho kungokomthetho, ukuphoqelela ukuhlolwa kuyangatshazwa ngokwezimiso ngoba kukhohlisa abantu ngokuphathelene nenjongo yokuhlola. Umhloli osemthethweni kumelwe athulule lokho okudinga ukucwaninga futhi ukusabela okungaziwa. Abashayeli bemibhoshongo bavame ukushiya lokhu kwaziswa noma bathi baqhuba “isifundo seyunivesithi” uma empeleni besebenza emkhankasweni. UMbutho waseMelika wezimiso zezimiso zezimiso zezimiso zezimiso zezezombangazwe uvimbela imikhuba yokukhomba inkohliso, kodwa i-gavi i-odo i-odoo. I-mfeyithi ishiyeka iqinisekile ukuthi noma ikuphi ukuhlola kocingo kuyiqiniso, okuqeda ukuhlola okusemthethweni.

Ukulinganisa Ithonya Endleleni Yokusebenza Kwezinti Zomsila

Ukwenezela ithonya eliqondile lenhlolo ephoqelelwayo kunzima ngoba imikhankaso ayivamile ukuveza ukusetshenziswa kwayo, futhi ukuhlola okulawulwayo akuvamile okhethweni lwezwe langempela. Nokho, ukucwaninga okukhona nokuhlolwa kwezenzakalo kusikisela ukuthi ukuphoqelela ukuphenya ukuphenya kungashintsha imibono ezinhlangeni eziseduze.

Ukuhlola okuphawulekayo okwakhishwa kuyi- American Journal of Political Science kwathola ukuthi ukwaziswa okungathandeki okunikezwa elungiselelweni lokuhlola kwathatha iziphumo ezihlala njalo ezihlolweni zombhalisa, ikakhulukazi uma abavoti benokwaziswa okuncane ngaphambili. Ngamanye amazwi, ukucindezela ukuhlolwa kuphumelela kakhulu kwemijaho ephansi noma ama-stary lapho igama liphansi khona. Ngokwesibonelo, phakathi ne-2016 Republican primeriaries, iqembu elingazuzisi eliye lashoshoshoshosho i-Iowao ukuthi i-Senator Ted Cruz yasekela u-Rehoversation yabafudukia abangabanga abavelanga-Konjanethi kodwa ingethonye ithonya i-cus. Ngokufanayo, ebhodini lesikole noma izinhlanga yemikhampatho eyodwa, ingasho imvume yokuzi evuma ngaphambi kokuba i-inyani.

Ukuhlola Icala Nobufakazi

Izibonelo ezingokomlando zigcwele. Izinsolo eziyinhloko ze-New Hampshire Democratic zangonyaka ka-1992 zokuphoqelela ukuhlasela uBill Clinton ngezenzakalo ngalesosikhathi, ngokushaya izingcingo ezisikisela ukuthi wayeye wagwema inkonzo yezempi. Ngo-2004, i-Swift Boat Veterans for Truth yasebenzisa amasunts afana ne-Foffray ukuze icindezele amaqhinga okuhlola ukuhlasela impi kaJohn Kerry, nakuba lawo ayeqhutshwa kakhulu ngokuphoqelela kakhulu ngezikhangiso nangezenzakalo. Muva nje, phakathi nokhetho luka-20202020 lukamongameli, amaphangi eMichigan nasePennsylvania asebenzisa imibuzo yokuhlola ukusakaza ukusakaza ukukhohlakala ngeposi evota. Nakuba kunzima ukuqinisekisa, ukuhlanganisa imiphumela ephindaphindiswayo yokuda ezindaweni ezihlukene zokuzinyuswayo kungashintsha noma ukuguqulwa kwezindawo ezimbili ze-zinhlanu.

Ukufanekisa indlela engokwengqondo, cabangela i- Research Center [[FLT: 1] yokuhlaziya ukwenza isinqumo sovoti. Kwathola ukuthi abavoti ababika ukuthi bathola ukwaziswa okuphambene ngomvoti basengozini enkulu yokuba nombono ophambene, ngisho noma ukwaziswa kuvela emthonjeni ongaziwa. Ukuhlola okucindezela kusebenzisa lokhu ngokuveza umbono ongaqondile wophenyo lapho bedlulisela umyalezo ophambene ezinkulungwaneni zemikhaya.

Indlela Imishini Engabona Ngayo Izintuthwane Ezibangela Ukushukunyiswa

Abaculi bempi bangase bathembele eqinisweni lokuthi abavoti abaningi abazi ukuthi ukuvota okusemthethweni kunjani. Imfundo iyisivikelo esingcono kakhulu. Nakhu amafulegi abomvu acacile:

  • Ucingo lusebenzisa ulimi oluthinta kakhulu imizwelo noma olucwasayo. Izinhloli zangempela zigwema amagama afana “ukuhaha,” noma“i-athoric” ngoba zikhomba ngokukhululekile. Uma umbuzo uholela, kuyinhlolo ecindezelayo.
  • Oshayela ucingo wenqaba ukusho ukuthi ubani okhokhela inhlawulo. Izinkampani zokuvota ze-gtimate zizonikeza igama lenhlangano noma ikhasimende. Uma ucingo ebalekela noma ethi uvela “eqenjini lokucwaninga,” ungabanqika.
  • Imibuzo ehlaselayo noma evikela umuntu othile ozobhapathizwa ngokuphindaphindiwe. Ukuhlola okungokomthetho kungabuza ngabazofuna ukubhapathizwa nabezindaba abaningi. Ukuhlola okucindezelayo kuvame ukuchitha imizuzu eminingana kugxiviza isihloko esisodwa noma umuntu.
  • [ Ukuhlola kuhlanganisa izinkulumo ezingamanga noma ezingacacisiwe. Uma uzwa ukuthi uyazi ukuthi akulona iqiniso, ukuhlola kuhloselwe ukusakaza ukwaziswa okunganembile kunokuqoqa imibono.
  • Ucingo alunayo imibuzo engokwenani labantu. Ukuhlola kwangempela kubuza ngeminyaka yobudala, imfundo, ukuhlangana kweqembu, kanye nezinye izibalo ezikhona emiphumeleni yesisindo. Ukuhlola okucindezelayo kuyayiyeka ngoba kukhathalela ukuthonya kwakho, hhayi ukukulinganisa.

Uma usola ukuthi usesimweni sokuhlola okuphoqelelwe, ungamane ubeke ijubane.

Isiphetho

Ukuhlola kokubhula kumelela ubuciko obumnyama ekuthonyeni kwezombangazwe − ithuluzi elisebenzisa indlela yokulwa ukuze lisakaze isigijimi ngaphandle komyalezo obonakala uvela emkhankasweni. Ngokuqonda amasu omklamo (ukuhola imibuzo), ulimi olulayishiwe, ulwazi olukhethayo, ukuvumelana okungamanga, kanye ne-priningstings (-svoterss) zingaqala ukuqaphela lapho besetshenziswa esikhundleni sokulinganiswa. Imishini yempi izoqhubeka icwenga lezizindlela uma nje beqhubeka besebenza ngokusemthethweni nangempumelelo. Izentando yentando yeningi ukuze isebenze ngendlela ehloselwe ngayo, izakhamuzi kumelwe zikwazi ukuhlukanisa phakathi komzamo oqotho wokuqonda umbono womphakathi nowembobo bokuzama ukukwenza uhlolo. Isikhathi esilandelayo uphendula ngokunakekela, lalela ngokucophelela. Uma imibuzo efana nokukuqhubayo ukuphendule, mhlawumbe ziyakwazi ukuvikela isahlulelo sakho kuqala.