Nzvero dzavanhu vose dzazova mubatanidzwa wenhimbe dzezvamatongerwe enyika dzazvino uno, dzichipesvedzera chinhu chiri chose kubva kufukidzwa kwenhau kusvikira kugadziriro yavanamutevedzeri nokuvhota. Pesvedzero yavo inotambanukira kupfuura kushuma kwakapfava kwedzinza ramabhiza; nzvero zvimiro zvemifungo yokunaka, kuzivisa mubato, uye inogona kuchinja muuyo wezvirongwa zvePrimmia nesarudzo. Kunzwisisa kuti idzi nzvero dzinoshanda sei, uko dzinokundikana, uye kuti miuyo yadzoro yadzoro inopinda sei kupfurikidza nomuitiro wevhotiodharori inokosha nokuda kwomunhu upi noupi anotarira kukwakwakwakwa kwoudzo yehurumende yazvino unosarudzwa.

Mafungiro Avanhu Ari Kukanganiswa Nei?

Pamipimo yavo, nzvero dzemurangariro wavose dzakarongwa kuyera zvimiro zvendangariro, zvitendero, kana kuti zvisarudzo zvechiverengero chakati chavagari vemo. Mumashoko akapoteredza esarudzo, vanowanzobvunza pamusoro petsigiro yavanoda kubhapatidzwa, zvinotanga kunyorwa, kana kuti mirau inotenderwa. Nharidzano ndeyokuyera mirangariro yechiverengero chose chevondi kupfurikidza nokubvunzurudza muenzaniso unosanosarudzwa. Kunzvera kwesayenzi kunotsamira pamienzaniso, umo mutezo uri wose wezvipfuro zvinodanwa une bviro inozivikanwa yokusarudzwa. Uyu mutoo, apo unourawa zvakarurama, unobvumira vavhotera kuyera muganhu wemhoshoro ndokuita nenzira inowirirana.

Nhau yokuvhota kwaparusarudzo inovamba kudzokera shure kuzana ramakore rechi 20, rakakurumbira zvikurusa ne Literary Digest ya1936, apo nzvero huru asi isina kumiririrwa yakadeya kunyorwa kuti Alf Landon yaizokurira Franklin D. Roosevelt. Rooselt. Chiratidzo chaGeorge Gallup chakakurumbira zvikuru chinodeya kutaura zvakarurama mugumisiro, kusimbisa ukoshi hwemienzaniso yesayenzi. Nhasi, kunzvera kwakavapo kuratidzira bvunzurudzo dzorunhare, maruwaramendi, uye unyanzvi hunokosha hwokugadziridza nokuda kwokuva nescries skewskew. Bva nheyo inokosha ichiripo: kusanonzvera kwapa pfungwa yavose panguva inotevedzei.

Basa Rezvinoshatisa Muzvisarudzo Nemabhirikiti

Mapoka anoshanda mabasa akawanda munhambo yesarudzo. Kuvanoda kupiwa mashoko anoziviswa kuti mashoko api anonzwika, kuti izvii zvinoda ngwariro, uye kana kushambadza kana kuti zviitiko zviri zviratidziro zvinofambisa. Zviverengero zvinowanzoitisa nzvero dzomukati. Nzvero dzomunhu oga dzinobhadharwa nenhimbe yacho. Nokuda kwezvinobudisa nhau, kunzvera kunogovera ungwaru hwenhau: uyo ari pasi, uye madzinza ari kukwikwikwidzana. Uku, kushandura, kuumbawo, kurangarira kwapachena uye kunogona kupesvedzera vapi navapi vanozvipira, uye vazvipiri vamene.

Mumabhii, kunzvera kunotora basa rakati nemhaka yokuti makwikwi okuvhota haana zvisarudzo zvakajeka zvegadziriro. Nzvero dzapakuvamba dzinogona kuparira chiratidzo che “pamberi pezvisarudzo” chinokwezva ngwariro yezvinobudisa nhau, tsivi, uye mari inotsigirwa. Nenzira inopesana, munzveri anokundikana kusvika pachikumbaridzo chakati kuti chezvokuvhota angabviswa panharo (sezvakaitwa neDemocratic National Committee muna 2020), achigadzira nhambo inotyisa iyo inokwevesaidza ngwariro iri pamberi pevaki vazhinji. Nokudaro mapoka haangoratidziriwo zvavo murangariro wavose muPrism / zvinobetsera zvikuru kuvaka kurukurirano dzinobudirira.

Mafungiro Anoita Vanhu Akasiyana - siyana

Kutsvaka Tsika Dzinoshatisa

Kunzvera kunodzokororwa kunoitwa mumazuva anotevedzana, kazhinji kazhinji kuchishandisa avhareji inodzokororwa yemashoko emisi ichangobva kupfuura iyi kupfavisa mamiriro ezvinhu ezuva nezuva. Zvinobvumira nhimbe navacherekedzi kuyera mipimo yemipimo yechero mukutsigirwa, kuita kukurukurirano, utsotsi, kana kuti zvinoitika zvikuru zvenhau. Nzvero yakakurumbira zvikurusa yakakurumbira zvikurusa i Galup Daily Rachoring[, asi zvino marekodhiroma mazhinji enhau anobudisa shanduro dzawo vamene mukati memwaka makuru ezvisarudzo.

Mapoka Emakemikari Nemapepa Ebasa

Nzvero dzeBenchmark dzinoitwa pakuvamba munhimbe yokugadza uko mutendi anomira pamusoro pevanopesana uye inhaui dzine chokuita zvikurusa navavhoti. Idzi nzvero dzinozivisa gadziriro dzenhimbe kubva pakutanga. zvimiro zvavose zvenzvero dzebhenji, zvinobudiswa namasangano enhau, zvinoumbawo nzwisiso dzokutanga dzesimba romubhadharwi (hkazhinji kazhinji pamberi pavavhotisi vazhinjisa vakanzwa nezvomukwikwikwidzani.

Kushata Kwokubuda

Nzvero dzokubuda dzinoitwa mumunhu paZuva reNzvimbo yokusarudza kunze kwenzvimbo dzakasarudzwa, vachibvunza vavhoti kuti vanokanda sei mavhoti avo uye chikonzero nei. Dzinogovera zviratidzo zvapakuvamba pamusoro pemiuyo pamberi pokuva namabhii apamutemo anoitwa ndokupa mashoko amanani anokosha avagari vemo (semuenzaniso, kuratidzira, kuti zera rakasiana sei kana kuti mapoka edzinza akavhota. Zvisinei, kuvhota kwapakubuda kwakatarisana nenhau dzinowedzera dzeruramiro nemhaka yokukwira kwokuvhota nokuramba, kuchitungamirira mibatanidzwa yokuabata nokungwarira kukuru.

Kushatsa

Kunzverwa kwokumanikidza hakusi kunzvera kwechokwadi asi chimiro chepwitism rematongerwe enyika inonyengedzwa seyekuvhota. Munhu anoshanyira runhare achabvunza mibvunzo inotungamirira, kazhinji kazhinji ine mashoko enhema kana kuti anotsausa, yakarongedzerwa kubvisa murangariro womuvhoti. Somuenzaniso, kunzvera kwokugombedzera kungabvunza, kuti, “Kana waiziva kuti X akanga apomerwa mhaka yokubiridzira, ungadai uchiri kuvhotera here?” Iyi haibvumirwi mune dzimwe nyika uye inoshorwa zvikuru nenzanga yenzvero.

Kushata Kwemiti uye Kushatisa Kunoita Kuti Vasave Nemakwenzi

Kuvhota kwestatus ndekwemasanga, mavhoti asina asayenzi anowanzoitwa pazviitiko zvepati kana kuti munhepfenyuro dzepaIndaneti. Anogona kubudisa kuvhura kwezvinobudisa nhau asi haana uwandu hwezviverengero. Kuno rumwe rutivi rwemitsetse, kuvhota kwapanguva dzose [ kunouya muenzaniso wakafanana wavavhoti pamwe chete nokuda kwekurukurirano dzakarongwa panhau, vachiyera kuti mirangariro inochinja sei pashure pokuratidzirwa kumashoko akadzikama. Nepo isingawanzowaniki mune zvematongerwe enyika, vanoratidza chisarudzo muizvo muvhoti akadzidza angasarudza.

Kutapura Kunoita Tsika Dzokushatisa Mutsika

Kufurira kunoita vavhoti kwakaongororwa zvikuru.

Muuyo WechiBanwagon

Apo nzvero dzinoratidza mubhadhari mberi zvikuru, vamwe vavhoti vangakweverwa kumukundi anofungidzirwa, nemhaka yokuti vanoda kutsigira mukundi anobvira kana kuti nemhaka yokuti vanoda kuva parutivi rwokuwina. Ikoku kunogona kutanga nhambo yokuzvipa mhindu: nhamba dzakasimba dzinotungamirira kutsigiro huru, iyo ipapo inokwidziridza nhamba zvikuru. Muuyo wacho unoziviswa zvikurukuru pakati pavavhoti vanovimbiswa zvishoma vanoshandisa zvigaro zvokuvhota sechisarudzo nokuda kwokuita chisarudzo.

Tapuro Yapasi

Nenzira yakapesana, mukwikwidzani anogona dzimwe nguva kukwezva tsigiro inonzwira tsitsi. Voter vangatsigira seri kwechishuvo chakaderera chamakwikwi kana kuti nemhaka yokuti vanorangarira kuti mukwikwidzi ari kurambwa zvisina kururama. Izvi hazvichinji zvikuru kupfuura bhii asi zvakacherechedzwa mumakwikwi makuru anoverengeka apo denderedzwa rakabvumira mukwikwidzani wechipiri kusvika mutungamiriri.

Kusakendenga Nebasa Rakanaka

Apo nzvero dzinoratidzira kusvetanyika, vamwe vatsigiri vemurwi anotungamirira vangava vachigara pamusha, vachifunga kuti vhoti yavo haisati iri madikanwa. Munguva ino, vatsigiri vomukwaniri vangagarawo pamusha, vachidavira kuti kukwikwidza kungava nebanza. Uku kushingaira kunogona kuodza mwoyo mumijaho isina kuvhengana. Nenzira yakapesana, apo kunzvera kunoratidza nhangemutange yapedyo, muvhoti wevhoti inowedzera. Kuwedzera, kunzvera kunogona kusunda kuvhotera vhotera [[[FLT:]] apo FLT] FOTYM inosarudza mutambi wechikwereti chechipiri panzvimbo pokuti “ichota.

Kutapura Kusarudza Kwokutanga Nokushanda Kwako

Vavhoti vapakuvamba, kazhinji kacho vanoitwa mwedzi mishoma mavhoti api naapi asati avhotwa, vanogona kuva vasina kururama nenzira youpengo asi vachiri kuumba rudzi zvinoshamisa.

“ Muuyo Wakaipa” Nokushatisa Kwechipukanana

Iowa caucuses yave iri nharaunda inobvumikisa munhau nokuda kwavanotora rutivi rwokutanga, uye nzvero dzinotungamirira murevero ine simba guru reIowa. Munzvero anokwira muIowa anowana nyuko dzakasununguka, idzo ipapo dzinowedzera kuzivikanwa kwenyika, idzo ipapo dzinovandudza kunzvera kwenyika, icho chinovandudza chisaririra chenyika pane dzimwe nguva chinonzi kushatisa mafashamo [. Muna 2008, kukwira muIowa, Barack Obama’s kunzvera pashure pokunzvera kwaJefferson Dhackson Warwiner, kwaitwe nokupfuudza mirangariro, zvichiparira kukunda kwake kwokupedzisira.

Kupa uye Kuita Zvisarudzo naErite

Vapi vahombe vanotsamira panzvero kuti vasarudze kuti vapi vanoda kutsigira mari. Mubhadhari uyo anonyoresa nguva dzose 1% munzvero dzorudzi achaparapatika kuunganidza mari, kuchikuita kuti kuve kwakaoma kukwikwidza. Pamubatanidzwa (vatungamiriri vakasarudzwa, vazivi, uye mapoka ezviwanira mhindu) anonyatsotarira kuti azive kuti ndiani anofanira kutsigira kana kuti kutsigira. Muuyo ndewokuti kubetsera kwomutevedzeri wacho kazhinji kazhinji kazhinji kunorondedzerwa zvikuru nenzvero dzinoitwa kupfuura mbavarira dzouswa chaihwo, zvikurukuru mumadanho apakuvamba.

Matanho Okubatanidza Kunoitika

Munhambo dzemisi ichangobva kupfuura iyi, zvikwaniriso zvekurukurirano zvakabatanidzwa nezvikumbaridzo zvokunzvera zvavose.Somuenzaniso, 2020 yaidikanwa zvikuru yeDemocratic kuti isvike 1% munenge mitatu yavakakwaniriswa kana kuti kugamuchira mipiro inobva kuvapi vezvienzi vane 65 000 kuti vaite nharo. uyu mutemo wakapa kunzvera simba rokuchengeta masuo esangano: vada kunzvera kuti vaibatanidze mukunzvera kwakaomeswa nokusimbiswa nokubudirira mukurukurirano yacho.

Zvinetso Netsoropodzo Zveshati

Kuchinja kwose kwazvinoita, zvishandiso zvisina kukwana. Nhumbi dzekare dzinopotsa /_Pakurukuru muna 2016 uye 2020 Sarudzo dzeUnited States dzinoita kuti vanhu vaongorore kwazvo miitiro yokuongorora.

Kushandura Zvibhiya uye Kusazvidzora

Kushambadzira kunotsamira pakusvika pamienzaniso yavavhoti. Asi mwero yemhinduro yakaderera pasi pe 10% nokuda kwokunzverwa kworunhare, kureva kuti avo vanopindura vangasiana nenzira ine nhevedzano naavo vasingapinduri. Mumabhodhi eIndaneti, muenzaniso wacho unowanzoshongedzwa kukuita kuti varongedze kusarura kweidzi tsvete nokurema, asi kurema kunotsamira pamashoko akarurama pamusoro pechiverengero chavagari vemo(* uye kuti chiverengero chavagari vemo chiri kuchinja nokukurumidza mukuwirirana nedzidzo, uye mitoo yokuvhotera.

Kubvunza uye Kurayira

Kunyorwa chaiko kwomubvunzo kunogona kuchinja zvikuru migumisiro. Somuenzaniso, kubvunza pamusoro pe “kushandisa hurumende munyuro” kunopa mhinduro dzakasiana. Nenzira yakafanana, nhevedzano umo mibvunzo inobvunzwa inogona kumisa kufunga kwevapinduri. Nyanzvi dzenzvero dzisati dzaedza zvishandiso zvavo, asi dzimwe nguva zvinobudisa nhau zvinotanga kunzvera kusingadzoreki zvikuru uko kunoparira shanje.

Chinetso Chiri Kuda Nguva

Kuongorora kwakaitwa mavhiki maviri Zuva Rokusarudza risati rasvika kungapotsa chiitiko chinononoka kuparadzwa kana kuti kushambadza. Kumwe kuvhota kwakaitika munguva pfupi yapfuura kwakanzi kwakakonzerwa nezvinenge zvachinja pakati pevavhoti vasina kusarudzwa vasina kubatwa nenzvero dzakaitwa vasati vasarudzwa.

Kunyanyovimba Nechinogadzirwa Nebhiza

Zvichida kutsoropodza kukurusa ndekwokuti kunzvera kunokurudzira mirau yapadzinza ramabhiza iyo inopesana nekurukurirano yemiitiro. Apo chikamu chiri chose chenhau chinotungamirira ne “Madatebhendi anosungirirwa pa 47%,” vavhoti vanonyimwa mashoko pamusoro penhau, marekodhi, uye uzivi hunodzora. Vatsikinyirira panguva iyeyo kugadziridza mashoko avo kuti vagadzirise nhamba dzokuvhota panzvimbo pokudzidzisa kana kuti kunyengetedza pazvakanaka.

Kukura Kwokushatisa Nokushatisa

Muitiro wokunzverwa kwechisimba wakaitwa munhambo dzazvino uno, nenhimbe dzokushandisa marocall neSMS kuparadzira mashoko asina kunaka nenyengedzo yokunzvera. American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) inoshora zvakasimba muitiro uyu, uye hurumende dzinoverengeka dzakapa mitemo inoda kuziviswa pashanyo dzezvamatongerwe enyika.

Nokuda kwokunzvera kwakadzama mitoo yokunzvera nemiitiro yakanakisisa, Pew Research Center yemitoo peji inopa tsananguro dzine udzame dzenzvero nouremu. COM] COM yeETS[FLT] inoronga mipimo yenyanzvi nokuda kwavanzveri vemifungo yavose.

Nzvero Dzehosha: Kushatisa Munzvero Dzazvino Uno

Chisarudzo chaPurezidhendi weUnited States cha2016

Sarudzo ya2016 muenzaniso unodudzwa zvikurusa wokundikano yokunzvera munhau yazvino uno. Nzvero dzeNational dzakaratidza Hillary Clinton anotungamirira Donald Trump neanenge mapfundo matatu, uye akawina vhoti yakakurumbira ne 2.1 . Yakawana mubatanidzwa wenzvero dzeavhareji. Asi nzvero dzehurumende muUpper Midwast (Muchigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) dzakanga dziri kure zvikuru, kuderedza tsigiro yaTrump pakati pevarungu vasiri vatsigiriki vhoti. Kupotera kwainzi mubatanidzwa wezvikanganiso zvinorema, chitambudzo chokudzosa, uye kupera kwekuvhura kwapa nokuda kwaTrump mumazuva okupedzisira. Muuyo wakaparadzwa mukunzvera uye kutungamirira kumitoo mikuru yokuchinja.

Chisarudzo chaPurezidhendi weU.S. 2020

Nzvero dzenyika nehurumende muna 2020 dzakanga dzakarurama zvikuru kupfuura muna 2016, neavhareji yenyika inoratidzira Joe Biden ne8 mativi . Chidzidzo chikuru chakanga chiri chokuti zvikanganiso zvokukunda zvinowanzova nechokuna nedivi re4. Zvinhu zvimwe chetezvo zvinoparira kupotsa kwenhano mune imwe nyika muzvimwe nyika dzakawanda. Chinotokoshazve nzanga yakatarisanazve nokushorwa nokuda kwokupotsa tsigiro yaTrump mumitezo mikuru yakadai seFlorida neOhio. Chidzidzo chikuru chakanga chiri chokuti zvikanganiso zvokunzvera zvinowanzova nechokubatanidza: zvinhu zvimwe chetezvo zvinoparira kupotsa muimwe nyika sezvingabvira kunoparira kupotsa mudzimwe nyika, kuita kudeyanwa kweboka-kwechinokwa kunopfuura pfundo rakavimbika zvikuru. [FFLTY:]

20 Nguva Inokosha Yokutonga Pasi Pose: Mugero WePete Buttigieg

2020 Democratic yakaratidzira kuti nzvero dzapakuvamba dzinogona sei kuva dzinotsausa. Pakati pa2019, Joe Biden akabata nhungamiro huru yorudzi yamapfundo 30. Bva Pete Buttigieg akabuda muIowa caucuuses mutaundi inodokuva naBernie Sanders, achiva akwira kubva pamitsetse mitatu miduku imwe mukunzvera kwamarudzi kumira mukwikwikwidzano mutsika dzakasimba nekurukurirano dzinogamuchirwa zvakanaka. Zvisinei, kukundikana kwake kuputsika munzvero dzorudzi pashure paIowa (haasati atongopfuura 15% yorudzi) yakatanhamara ganhuriro yenyika yehurumende muzvamatongerwe enyika zvazvino uno.

2008 Democratic Primary: “Nhema dzeBradley”

2008 Democratic huru pakati paBarack Obama naHillary Clinton vakaedzwa kukwanisa kutora vanhu vedzinza. Vamwe vaongorori vakatya “Mugumisiro weBradley” .Vhedhivhota vaiudza vavhota vvuki kuti vaizovhota muBlack brick asi vozovhota kuti muvengi muvengi. Kutaura zvazviri, kuongorora kwairatidza kuti Obama aiwanzoita mutsetse neaiongorora, zvichikarakadza kuti kusarura vanhu kwakanga kuri kuduku mumakwikwikwi. Chiitiko chakaratidzira kuti kuvhotera kuvhotera kwaibva kwapa muvatema.

Mari Nechipameso Chinosvibisa

Sarudzo huru zvikurukuru dzinozivisa kuti nzvero dzinogona sei kuva dzinozvigutsa. Munzvero anotungamirira munzvimbo dzapakuvamba anowana wirirano yenhau, iyo inowedzera kuzivikanwa kwezita, uko kunosimudzirawo nhamba dzenhamba dzenzvero. Ikoku kunoparira nhangemutange yakaderera yenyuziyo: vavhoti vanotsamira pamashoko anovhotera sechisarudzo chevara rinobhadharwa, kunyange zvazvo chiito chaicho chokushuma chinoita kuti nzvero dzive dzakasimba zvikuru. Iyi tapuro yakaonwa muna 2016 Republican apo Donald Trump aie anotungamirira nguva dzose kunzvera pasinei zvapo nezvinzvimbo zvisingatengwi, sezvo kudzosera kwake kwakafambisa pachena mashoko ake.

Dzimwe nyanzvi dzinotaura kuti kuongorora kwemavhairasi kune simba guru mumwaka wokutanga kupfuura mumavhoti nokuti vavhoti vane mashoko mashoma okutsigira uye mashoko mashoma.

mhedziso

Nzvero dzemifungo yavose zvishandiso zvinokosha nokuda kwokunzwisisa vhota, asi zvinouya neganhuriro dzinoda kududzirwa nokungwarira. Hazvingori kuyera murangariro wavanhu nerokuti “‘ zvinobetsera kuuumba, zvikurukuru munzvimbo yakaderera yesarudzo. Kudzorwa kwemibato yemifungo, basa rokuchengeta kurukurirano, uye basa retsorororo rebhiza retsoro, uye kupfuudza kwezvinobudisa nhau zvose zvinoreva kuti kuvhotera kwechine pesvedzero isingaenzaniswi pamuitiro wedemokramendi. Chinetso chevo, vatori venhau, uye vanoda kunzvera zvakafanana vanofanira kushandisa mubato mumwe somusi wezvisaririra pakati pavazhinji (*) usingatongotsiviswi somutsivi wokufunga pamusoro penhau nokungwarira. Mugari anozivikanwa zvikurusa achatarira pamusoro pezviverengero, mativi ose echipokanwa, uye nguva yokunzvera, apo kunzvera kupinzwa kunenge kusiri kucherekedzwa.