Mamwe maturusi okutsvakurudza akagadzirwa nemaune anopa nzwisiso yezvinodiwa nevavhoti. Vamwe vanorongerwa kuti vashandise zvirongwa zvimwe chete izvozvo — unyanzvi hunozivikanwa sekunzverwa. Kusiyana kwacho kunogona kuva kwamanomano, asi migumisiro yokusawirirana nevamwe inokosha. Kuongorora kunokuvadza kunoparadza mugadziriro dzedemocracy, kunobudisa mashoko asina kururama, uye kunyange migumisiro yokuvhota. Nyaya ino inotsanangura kuti ungaziva sei kumanikidza kuvhota, nei kuomerera zvakasimba kumipimo yesayenzi, uye kuti munhu upi noupi — kubva kuvadzidzisi vanofara — anogona kunzvera nokungwarira mashoko avanosangana nawo.

Kushatisa Kwokumanikidza Chii?

Nzvero irudzi rwenzvero yakagadzirirwa kwete kuunganidza mashoko echokwadi asi kupesvedzera kana kuti ku "pus" mhinduro kumurangariro wakati kana kuti vavariro yokuvhota. Shoko racho rakaitwa muma 1970, asi muitiro wacho une mavambo makuru mukutsigira zvematongerwe enyika. Musiano namavhota apamutemo, ayo anoshandisa mutauro usingatori rutivi uye mienzaniso isina muganhu kuti aonere, anosunda kuvhota pamibvunzo ine mitoro, kutaura kusina kusimbiswa, uye kukurudzira kwemirangariro. Nharidzano yavo huru inyengedzo, kwete kuyera.

Nzvero dzemitemo dzakatanga kusimudzirwa nenzvimbo yakasiyana. muUnited States, kazhinji kazhinji hadzidzorwi mumitemo yemari yenhimbe kutoti dzichitsigira zvakajeka kana kuti kukwikwidza. Zvisinei, nyika dzakawanda dzine zvinodikanwa zvokuzivisa. Federal Communications Commissions Commission (FCC) yakamutsawo nhau nezvinomanikidzirwa kunzvera zvinokundikana kuziva sangano rinotsigira mari. Pasinei zvapo neizvi, kuvhotera kunoramba kuri chinhu chavose — uye kupesana — chishandiso mumibato yezvamatongerwe enyika, zvikurukuru mukati mezvirongwa zvokurwisa kukuvadza vakwikwidzani vanoshandisa kunzvera vasingasaruri.

Mienzaniso Yomunguva Yakapfuura Yokushatisa Vanhu

Mumwe wemiitiro yokunzverwa yakashata zvikurusa yakaitika mukati me 2000 South Carolina Republican yokutanga. Vaenzi vakabvunza vavhoti: “Ungava nomukana mukuru wokuvhota nokuda kwaJohn McCaine kana waiziva kuti akanga abereka mwana mutema asiri muteveri? ” Uyu mubvunzo wakanga uri wenhema chose chose — mwanasikana akarerwa naMcCain weBangladesh akanga ari chipfuro chenzira dzokuzvidza dzourudzi. Kunzvera kwacho kwakanga kusina fariro mukuunganidza mashoko; kwakaitirwa kuderedza tsigiro yaMc Cain pakati pavolute.

Chimwe chinoitika chakakurumbira chakabatanidza "Bradley tapuro" — chinoitika chakapiwa zita raMos Angeles Meya Tom Bradley, uyo akarasikirwa nenhangemutange yagavhuna yeCalifornia ya1982 pasinei zvapo nokutungamirira mukunzverwa kwapamberi pekusarudza. Nepo kusati kuri kumanikidzwa kunzvera kumene, chinoitika chakanyandura nzvero yekuti zvimiro zvakavanzika zvavanhu zvinogona kushatisa sei kuvhota. Nzvero dzinofurira dzinoshandisa fungidziro dzakavanzwa dzakadaro kupfurikidza nokusuma namaune mashoko enhema kana kuti akakatutsirwa, dzichikudziridza rusarura rwuripo panzvimbo pokuyera mirangariro iripo.

Unyanzvi Hunoshandiswa Mukushatisa

Kunzvera kwokumanikidza kunoshandisa unyanzvi hunoverengeka hwakasiana nenzvero dzapamutemo:

  • [ Mashoko enhema: Vanopa kutaura kusina kujeka kana kuti kunofungidzirwa pamusoro pomutendi kana kuti nhau, ipapo kuyera kuita kwomugamuchiri.
  • [ Mutauro unopinzwa nomuromo: Mashoko akafanana ne "corrupt," "radical,"" kana kuti "chakavanzika" anoshandiswa kunyandura mhinduro yapakarepo yemirangariro.
  • Mashoko akavanzika: Mibvunzo inovamba neiyi: Ungatsigira here mukwikwidzi akawanwa ane mhaka yokubiridzira? kunyange apo kupwiswa kwakadaro kunenge kusipo.
  • Chisarudzo chakarongwa: Vapi vanopiwa vanokumbirwa kusarudza pakati pechiratidzo chisina kururama chakajeka nechakavanzika kana kuti chakanaka, chisina chisarudzo chokusatora rutivi.
  • [[FLT: 0] Nguva yeThroriver: Kuvhota kweLegitimate kunowanzotora maminiti 10-20; kumanikidza kuvhota kungapedza maminiti rimwe chete kana maviri, kwakanangidzirwa chose chose pachinyorwa chimwe.

Unhu Hunosvibisa Zvine Simba

Kuvhota kwapamutemo mutoo wakarongwa, wesayenzi wokuyera nawo murangariro wavanhu. Masangano anonzverwa anotanhanhanwa anotevera mipimo yakagadzwa iyo inovimbisa kuti mashoko acho akavimbika, haana kuvimbika, uye anomiririri. Iyi mipimo inoumbwa namasangano enyanzvi dzakadai se American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

Kubata Zvisina Kufanira uye Kumiririra

Panzvimbo pokunzverwa kwapamutemo imhaka inongoitika. Kuvhota kunoitiswa zvakanaka kunoitwa vaibvunzwa nenzira inopa mutezo uri wose wechinotarwa bviro yakaenzana (kana kuti inozivikanwa) yokubatanidzwa. Ikoku kunowanwa nenzira inowanzopfurikidza nokunzverwa kwemichina yenhepfenyuro, kana kuti muenzaniso wakavakirwa pakero nokuda kwetsamba uye mukunzvera. Online-in inozivikanwa zvikuru asi inoda kuva nouremu hwemitengo hwakaoma kururamisa tsvomhoshoro.

Ukuru hwechitsama hunosarudzwa nemwero unoshuviwa worururami. Kunzverwa kworudzi rwe 1 000 sezvingabvira vavhoti, micheto yemhosho inenge 933 muzana pamapfundo echivimbo pa 95%. Kuvhota kwemitemo nguva dzose kunoshuma zvose zviri zviviri ukuru hweimberi nemheno dzemhosho. Zvinorondedzerawo vagari vemo vaiedza (mh., "m.," "votation," uye "sezvinganzi madeti.

Kuronga Kusava Nechokwadi

Nzvero dzapamutemo dzinodzivisa kutungamirira, kutakura, kana kuti kubvunza kuviri kwakasanorongwa kupfupi, kusatora rutivi, uye kushandisa mashoko anowirirana. Somuenzaniso: "Kana sarudzo yapurezidhendi ikaitwa nhasi, ungavhota nokuda kwaA kana kuti Candidate B? ” (Mubvunzo unomanikidzira: "Parai mhosva dzake dzouori, mungagona kurangarira kuvhotera nokuda kweImbada A?) Nhano dzapakuvamba; kuedza kwapashure kwokuisa mhaka.

Nhevedzo yebvunzo ine chokuitawo. Nzvero dzinongosarudzwa pasina kurongwa kuti zvisaedze kutsiva kana kuti kusatapura ukuru. Dzinobatanidza "Hauzivi" uye "kuisa" zvisarudzo, zvichibvumira vapinduri kusarudza pasina miuyo ye rusaruro. Kuvhota kwokumanikidza kazhinji kazhinji kubvisa izvi zvisarudzo, kuchigombedzera chisarudzo chedichotomous.

Kuona Mitoo Yakajeka

Nzvero yapamutemo inobudisa mashoko ane udzame pamusoro pomutoo wayo wenzvero. Ikoku kunobatanidza mutoo wemienzaniso, uremu hwemhosho, miganhu yemhosho, miitiro inorema, uye sangano rinotsigira. Pew Research Center[, somuenzaniso, inogovera mapepa makuru nokuda kwokunzvera kuri kwose, kubatanidza kubvunza kwakazara, miuyo yepamusoro, uye chikamu chemiitiro. Kunyorwa kwemitengo yenhau seThe New York Times ne FiveThirtyeight kunodawo kunzvera kuwirirana nezvikumbariso zvikuru.

Mipimo Yenyanzvi Nehwirudzuro Yavaenzani

Vanzveri vazhinji vapamutemo vari vasonganiro dzenyanzvi dzakadai seAPAR kana kuti World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). Masangano aya anodzika mitemo yetsika inorambidza miitiro yakafanana nokumanikidza kunzvera. Mukuwedzera, zvirongwa zvokunzvera zvedzidzo neisiteria zvinowanzova nemvumo dzekunzvera dzesangano (IRB) dzinotenderwa kuva nechokwadi chokubatwa kwetsika kwevatori. Mafekitari ebhizimisi angasava noutarisiri humwe chetehwo, asi ayo ane marekodha marekodhi — kufanana naGallup, You Gov, uye Ipsos — anobvuma nokuzvidira kubhendibhendi yeindasi.

Kugadzira Kwaungaita Dombo Rinoshatisa

Kusiyanisa kuongorora kunoitwa paongororo yakakodzera kunoda kunyatsongwarira zviratidzo zvinoverengeka zvinonyevera.Pazasi pane kuongorora kunoshanda kwaunogona kushandisa kuti uongorore kuongorora kupi nokupi kwaunoona.

Zvakanaka Kuti Uve Wechokwadi"

Kana nzvero ichishuma mutobvu mukuru usina kusiiwa nokuda kwomubhadhari, kana kuti kutaura kuti 80% yavavhoti vanotsigira chimiro chenharo, iva vanonyumwira. Nzvero dzapamutemo hadziwanzoparira miuyo yakakomba yakadaro. Kumwe kunoitika, asi dzinofanira kuperekedzwa namapako. Kunzverwa kwokumanikidza kunowanzonyanyisa tsigiro kana kuti chishoro kuti chivake pfungwa yenhema yesimba.

Mibvunzo Mikuru Kana Kuti Inoparira

Teerera mibvunzo inovamba nezvitsama zvamashoko zvakadai se "Unoziva here kuti..." kana kuti "Kunokosha kwauri here kuti..." izvi zvivako zvinowanzoshanda sebhiza reTrojan nokuda kwamashoko enhema. Somuenzaniso: "Unoziva here kuti Mudaviri avhotera kukwidza mitero paboka rapakati katatu? Kana rondedzero yacho iri yenhema kana kuti inotsausa, kuvhota kumanikidzira.

Kuvhiyiwa Kana Kuti Kutadza Kushandisa Nzira Dzakasiyana

Kana nzvero yacho isingatauri ukuru hwemienzaniso, mucheto wemhosho, kana kuti sangano rinotsigira, inodokuva zvamazvirokwazvo isiri nzvero yapamutemo. Nzvero dzokumanikidza hadziwanzozivikanwi mashoko aya. Kunyange kana dzichidaro, nzvera mutsigiri: ifemu yokunzvera yakazvimirira, nhimbe yokuvhotera, kana kuti boka rapamberi rine zita rakadai se "Citizen for Trust Government"?

Nguva Pfupi uye Kuisa Pfungwa Dzoga Pachinhu Chimwe

Nzvero dzapamutemo dzinofukidza nhau dzakawanda uye dzinotora maminiti 10-20 kugovera. Nzvero dzokumanikidza kazhinji kazhinji dzinotora maminiti asingasviki mashanu uye dzinonangidzira ngwariro bedzi panhau imwe kana kuti imwe. Dzingashandisawo mubvunzo mumwe kana kuti miviri bedzi, dzichidzokorora mubvunzo mumwe wakaremerwa namashoko akatisiyanei.

Kukundikana Kugovera Miuyo

Kana kuvhota kwapamutemo kwangopedzwa bedzi, kunowanzobudiswa kana kuti kuiswa mudura rakadai seRoper Center kana kuti iPoll. Nzvero dzechiPush hadzitongobudisi miuyo nemhaka yokuti hadzina kutongoitirwa kuyera chinhu chipi nechipi.

Kusiyana Pakati Pokushatisa Nokuedza Shoko

Kunokosha kusavhiringidza nzvero dzokumanikidzira ne "kunzvera mashoko," muitiro wapamutemo wenzvero unoshandiswa nenhimbe. Mumashoko kunzvera, vapinduri vanoratidzwa manyoro anobvira akanyorwa kana kuti mapfundo okutaura ndokubvunzwa kuti ndeapi anonyengetedza zvikurusa. Nharidzano ndeyokuita kuti kurukurirano ive inokwaniriswa, kwete kuparadzira nhema. Kuedza shoko kunojeka mudonzo, kunoshandisa mutauro usingatori rutivi, uye kazhinji kazhinji kazhinji kugovera miuyo nokuda kwokushandisa kwomukati. Kunzvera kwechipameso, kupfurikidza nokupesana, kunovanzwa senzverwa kwechokwadi uye kuparadzira mashoko anotsausa nenzira inonyengera.

Basa Rokushatisa Munhau Nehurumende Inosarudzwa Navanhu

Kushatisa kunobatira basa rinokosha munzanga dzehurumende inosarudzwa navanhu: kunogovera mufananidzo wemirangariro yavose, kunozvidavirira vakuru vakuru vakasarudzwa, uye kunozivisa vavhoti pamusoro pomugariro wemadzinza. Zvisinei, kuwanda kwenzvero dzokumanikidza — zvikurukuru kupfurikidza namarobha, mashoko, uye zvinobudisa nhau — kunotyisidzira basa iroro. Apo vavhoti vanorasikirwa nechivimbo mumashoko ose okunzvera, mhoteredzo yose yemifungo inoshatiswa.

Comment

Nzvero dzapamutemo dzinogona kupesvedzera mufambiro wavavhoti kupfurikidza nemiuyo yevota (vanhu vanotsigira muwiridziri wenhando) uye tapuro dzinooneka kuva dzinotevedzerwa (vanhu vanonzwira tsitsi nomukwaniridzirwo). Nzvero dzokumanikidza dzinoshandisa nenzira yamaune idzi kombamiro dzendangariro kupfurikidza nokuronga mutoo mukuru kana kuti kudzosa kwakashata. Mumasvota ava pedyo, kunyange kusundwa kuduku kunogona kuchinja mavhoti akakwana kuchinja muuyo. Thirtyheight yakaisa zviitiko zvakawanda [[FLT]]

Mutoro Wokuwana Mabhuku

Mitengo inobudiswa munhau ine mutoro wokunzvera nokungwarira isati yazvishuma. Nenzira isingafadzi, mukukurumidzisa misoro mikuru yenhau, mamwe masangano enhau anosimudzira kunzvera pasina kusimbisa ruzivo rwawo rwemiitiro. Muitiro wakanakisisa ndowokududza bedzi nzvero dzinowirirana nemipimo yokuona kwapamberi — somuenzaniso, idzo dzakaiswa panhambo neFORThirty Eight’s mentations, idzo dzinowana makambani pamusoro pokururama nokujeka. Vatori venhau vanofanirawo kucherekedza apo nzvero yakaitwa nefemuchivhotera ye Divticer kana kuti munthiswor.

Mazano Okubvisa Maputsi

Kana uri mudzidzi ari kunyora pepa, mudzidzisi achironga chidzidzo chehurumende, kana kuti muvhoti achiedza kunzwisisa nzvimbo yakasarudzwa, idzi nhungamiro dzichakubetsera kuparadzanisa mashoko akavimbika pakudzora.

1. Ziva Mupumburu

Tsvaka sangano raibhadhara nokuitisa nzvero. Vatsigiri vanokudzwa vanobatanidza nzvimbo dzokunzvera dzisingatsigiri, masangano makuru enhau, mayunivhesiti, uye mafekitari akaumbwa kwenguva refu. Iva anopanikira nzvero dzinorairwa nenhimbe yomunzvero, PPAC, kana kuti boka rezvemari inodzorwa netsananguro dzakajeka. Kana mutsigiri asingazivikanwi kana kuti anonyumwirwa nezita (g., "Americans for Zvokwadi"), kuchera zvakadzika.

Nzvera Kudonongodza Kwacho

Ndiani akabvunzurudzwa? Vakuru, vavhoti vakanyoreswa, kana kuti vavhoti? "Zvingabvira vavhoti" ndiwo mupimo wendarama nokuda kwokuvhota, asi mibvunzo yokuongorora inofanira kuziviswa. Uyewo nzvera manyuko aioneka: mutsetse wenyika unopesana neserofoni, uye kana mabhodhi eIndaneti akashandiswa. Nzvero dzakanakisisa dzinobatanidza mashandisirwo akawanda (foni, paIndaneti, tsamba) uye shandisa zvimwe zvikamu zvinobvira.

3. Ongorora Mubvunzo

Kana uchiwanika, verenga mibvunzo yose. Tsvaka mashoko akadzikama, zvisarudzo zvakajeka, uye zvinenge zviri pakati ne "Usingazivi". Iva akangwarira mibvunzo inovamba ne"Ko iwe unoziva here kuti..." kana kuti "pai izvozvo... — izvozvo mireza mitsvuku. Ongorora kana nhevedzano yamazita avanoda kutevera yakasarudzwa.

4 Tsvaka Nzira Dzakakwana Dzokugadzira

Nzvero zhinjisa dzinobudisa mashoko enzira anobatanidza misi yenhau, uremu hwechikepe, micheto yekanganiso, udzame hwemipimo, uye mitoo yokuonana nayo. Kana mamwe mashoko aya achishayikwa, ngwarira. Muchinjikwa une mipimo inobva kuAPOR: iwo anoda kuziviswa kwamashoko emibvunzo, uremu hwemienzaniso, uye mwero yemhinduro ipi neipi yakaitirwa kusunungurwa kwavanhu.

5 Enzanisa Nezvinokanganiswa Zvizhinji

Hapana nzvero imwe yakananga. Shandisa vasarudzi vakadai seFiveThirtyeight, Real CreatecPolitics, kana kuti muenzaniso wesarudzo weThe Economist kuona kubvumirana kwenzvero dzakawanda. Kana mumwe anzvera nenzira isina mufungo avhareji, ingava ine mhosho — kana kuti nzvero inogombedzera. Cherekedzawo nguva: nzvero dzakaitwa mukati menhambo yenhau dzingaratidzira misoro yevhiki iyoyo panzvimbo pemirangariro yakaderera.

6 Ongorora Kudavidza Nokurema Kwakaita

Mwero yokunzverwa kwenhano yakaderera kusvikira kumitengo imwe. Nzvero dzapamutemo dzinopa mishumo yedavidzo uye kutsanangura kuti fungidziro isina kuyera inobatwa sei kupfurikidza nokurema. Kana pasina mwero wemhinduro inodudzwa, kuvhota kungava kuri kushandisa zvinuro zvisati zviri zvekushanda zvisingagoni kuiswa nenzira yakakosha. Nzvero dzeIndaneti dzinotsamira pavazvipiri vakazvisanangurira vamene (se "chofoza pano kuvhota" nzvero) hadzitongorina sayenzi.

Shandisa Mazano Okushandisa Mazano Okuodza Mwoyo

Five-heaty inogovera chiyero chezvisaririra zvakasimba zvinopa mafemu okunyora pamusoro pokururama kwenhau, kujeka, uye kuoma kwemiitiro. Pamberi pokududza kunzvera kupi nokupi, nzvera. Munzveri ne "A" chiyero chakavimbika zvikuru kupfuura chimwe chakatemwa "C" kana kuti "D.". Vanzveri vazhinji vechiVhesi vanowira mumitsetse yakaderera nemhaka yokuti havazivi mitoo yakazara yetsika kana kuti vane chinyorwa chetsika.

8. Ngwarira Kuipa kwematombo kana kuti kwematombo

Nhimbe dzinoparira panhambo nenhambo kuumba kushambadza kwomukati kwenhau. Uku kunzvera kungava kwapamutemo — asi nemhaka yokuti hakubvumiki uye hakurangarirwizve kuva vezera, kunofanira kubatwa nengwariro. Zvimwe chetezvo zvinoshanda kuidzo dzinonzi "nzvero" dzinoitwa pasocial windi, idzo dzisina ukoshi hwesayenzi.

mhedziso

Nzvero dzemabhuroketi hadzina ngozi — rudzi rwemaune rwekushandisa kwezvamatongerwe enyika kunotsausa vavhoti, kunoshatisa mikurumbira, uye kunoshatisa chivimbo mumiitiro yedemokrasi. Mano okusiyanisa pakati penzvero inomanikidzirwa nenzvero inoitiswa nesayenzi unyanzvi hunokosha nokuda kwomunhu upi noupi anoshandisa mashoko ezvematongerwe enyika. Nokutsvaka mashoko asina kutora rutivi, maitiro anooneka, mashandisiro akarongwa, uye mutsigiri ane mukurumbira, unogona kudzivisa kutsauswa nenhau dzenhema kana kuti dzinotsausa. Vadzidzisi, zvikurukuru, vane mutoro wokudzidzisa nenzira yokusangwarira nzira yokunzvera nayo — kwete bedzi mumwaka wesarusarudzo, asi somuitiro wenguva refu wokusarutsoropo, kuzivikanwa. Muzera remashoko anonyanyozivikanwa, mubvunzo hachisi icho icho icho mashoko okunzvera, asi kana kuti kunzvera kumene kunofanira kutendwa.