Uhlolisiso lukawonke-wonke lwezigqibo luye lwayindawo yokwenziwa kwamaphulo zobupolitika angoku, luphembelela yonke into ukusuka kwingxelo yoonontlalo-ntle ukuya kubuchule bokuvota. Impembelelo yabo idlulela ngaphaya komdyarho oqhelekileyo wamahashe onika ingxelo; ukujongwa kobume bendlela yokusebenza, ukwazisa iqela elingaphakathi ekwenzeni izigqibo, kwaye inokutshintsha iziphumo ze-primmicator kunye nonyulo jikelele. Ukuqonda indlela ezi zifundo ezisebenza ngayo, apho ziphelela khona, nendlela iziphumo zazo ezihamba ngayo kwinkqubo yonyulo ziyimfuneko nabani na okhangela ukuqhuba inkqubela phambili yedemokhrasi yexesha eliqhelekileyo.

Yintoni Ephazamisa Iimbono Zabantu?

Embindini, uphando loluvo lukawonke-wonke luyilwe ngokwenziwa ukuze kulinganiswe isimo sengqondo, iinkolelo, okanye uluhlu lwezinto ezikhethwayo zabemi abathile. Kumongo wonyulo, badla ngokubuza ngenkxaso yonyulo, izinto eziphambili, okanye ireyithingi ezivunywayo. Injongo kukuqikelela iimbono zabo bonke abantu abavotayo ngokudla ngodliwano - ndlebe ngoonobumba abakhethwe kakuhle. Ukucofa kwenzululwazi kuxhomekeke kumzekelo olindelekileyo, apho ilungu ngalinye labemi abajoliswe kulo linethuba elaziwayo lokuba likhethwe. Le ndlela, xa ibulewe kakuhle, ivumela abavoteli ukuba babale imida yempazamo kwaye benze ii-programs ezifanelekileyo.

Imbali yonyulo lonyulo iqala ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane yama-20, edume kakhulu nge ` intlekele yeLiterary Digest ka 1936, xa uphando olukhulu kodwa olungaboniswanga luthelekelele luzakoyisa uFranklinlin D. Roosevelt. Umzekelo obalulekileyo, owenziwe ngobuchule obuninzi ngokuchanekileyo, ochaza iziphumo ezichanekileyo, ukuqinisekisa ukubaluleka kwenzululwazi yokubonisa. Namhlanje, ukuphonononga kuqalile ukudibanisa udliwano-ndlebe nocingo, i-intanethi, kunye nobuchule obuntsonkothile bokulungisa ulwando lwe-skewskew. Kodwa umgaqo obalulekileyo ushiye uhleli: uvavanyo olulungileyo-lunokunika uluvo lukawonke ngexesha elingaphambili kodwa alunakuxelwa kuqwalalsakuxelwa kwendlela olugqibeleleyo lokuziphatha.

Indima Yezingcoliso Kukhetho Neencwadi Ezinemifanekiso

Uphando lusebenza imisebenzi emininzi kulo mjikelo wonyulo. Kubatshakazi, zinkqubo yemposiso etyhila ukuba yeyiphi imiyalezo evakalayo, ephi inani lamanani, nokuba ziziphi izibhengezo okanye ukubonakala kweziganeko ngamanani ashukumayo. Ikampathiso zidla ngokuqhuba uphando lwangaphakathi. / Uvavanyo lwangaphakathi olubhaliswe ngephulo--ukuvavanya kunye nobuncwane obunikiweyo. Kumaziko eendaba, uphando lunika igwebo lokubali: ngubani ophezulu, ngubani na ophantsi, ziziphi iintlanga ezikhuphisana. Le nguqulelo, ngokutshintsha, imo, imbonakalo kawonke-wonke kwaye inokuba nempembelelo kubenzi bomsebenzi bokuzithandela, kunye novoti ngokwabo.

Kwizingenisi, ukuvotelwa kuthatha indima engaphandle ngenxa yokuba ukhuphiswano olupheliswayo lungenazo iinjongo ezicacileyo zokhetho ngokubanzi. Uhlolo lwangaphambili lungadala ilebhile “engaphambili" etsala ingqalelo ye-media, inkxaso, kunye nengxowa-mali. Ngokuchaseneyo, umntu oye wasilela ukufikelela kumda othile wokuhlola unokuthi akhutshwe kwiingxoxo ezithile (njengoko iKomiti yeDemocratic National yenzayo ngo-2020), edala umjikelo oyingozi obonisa inkxalabo yonxibelelwano kumaziko e-media phambi kokuba abaninzi abavoti banikezele ingqalelo. Ngoko ke, iingqubano azibonisi nje uluvo lukawonke-wonke kwi-Prismries.

Iindlela Eziluvo Loluntu

Ukukhangela Ungcoliso

Uphando lokukhangela luye lwaphindaphindwa wenziwa iintsuku ezilandelelanayo, ngokufuthi kusetyenziswa umlinganiselo oqengqelekayo we-data yakutshanje ukucombulula utshintsho lwemihla ngemihla. Zivumela amaphulo kunye nabaqwalaseli ukuba balinganisele imigca yentsingiselo exhasiweyo, ukusabela kwingxoxo, amahlazo, okanye iziganeko eziphambili. Olona hlolisiso ludumileyo olulandelela ingoma luyi- i-Daloring, kodwa ngoku ii-mediadiote ezininzi zivelisa iinguqulelo zazo ngexesha lonyuselo.

Uphawu kunye nongcoliso lwesiseko

Uphando lwe-Benchmark luqhutywa ekuqaleni kwephulo lokumisela indawo athe umbhaptizi umi kuyo ngokunxulumene nabachasi kwaye yeyiphi imibandela ebaluleke kakhulu kubavoti. Olu hlolisiso lwazisa iphulo lephulo lokuvota kwasekuqaleni. Iintlobo zoluntu zophatho lwezibhedlele, ezikhutshwe yimibutho yamajelo eendaba, zikwalungisa indlela yokuqala yokubona amandla omntu oza kubhaptiza, ngokufuthiweyo phambi kokuba uninzi lwabavoti-votelwa luve ngomntu ochanayo.

Ungcoliso Lokuphuma

Uphando lokuphuma luqhutywa kumntu ngoSuku lokhetho ngaphandle kwebala elikhethiweyo, bebuza abavoti indlela abaphosa ngayo iibhola zabo kunye nesizathu sokuba. Banikela ubungqina bangaphambili malunga neziphumo phambi kokuba amanani asemthethweni agqitywe kwaye anike idata yamanani axabisekileyo amanani abantu , umzekelo, indlela eyahlukileyo ubudala okanye amaqela eentlanga avotelwa ngayo. Noko ke, ukuvota okuphumayo kuye kwajamelana neengxaki ezinyukayo ngenxa yokuvela kokuvota nokungavumi, okukhokelela kwiinkqubo zokuziphatha ngobulumko obungakumbi.

Tyhala Ungcoliso

Uphando olucinezelayo alululo olunyanisekileyo kodwa luluhlobo lweentsomi zezobupolitika ezifihliweyo njengee-cocation. Umfono ubuza imibuzo ekhokelayo, ngokufuthi enenkcazelo ebubuxoki okanye elahlekisayo, elungiselelwe ukuguqula imbono yomvoti. Umzekelo, uphengululo olunyanzelayo lusenokubuza, “Ukuba usazi ukuba u-X umangalelwe ngokuqhatha, ngaba usengakuvotela ngokungekho mthethweni?” Oku akuvumelekanga kwamanye amazwe kwaye kuyagxekwa kakhulu ngabacuphi nakuphanda.

Ungcoliso Lwengca Nezinto Ezingcolisayo Ezibangela Ukungaqondakali

Uphando lwe-staw lungacwangciswanga, ukuvota okungangokwenzululwazi okudla ngokuthatyathwa kwiziganeko zetheko okanye kwi-intanethi. Zingavelisa uvulo lwe-media kodwa azinamanani amanani. Kwesinye isiphelo solwahlulo, luzisa isampuli engaqhelekanga yabavoti kunye ngengxubusho ecwangcisiweyo, ukulinganisa indlela iimbono eziguquka ngayo emva kolwamkelo lolwazi olulungeleleneyo. Ngelinye ixesha elinqabileyo kwezobupolitika, banikela umqwalaseli kwisigqibo esinolwazi ngokhetho.

Impembelelo Yengqumbo Ekuziphatha Kwabantu Ngezambane

Impembelelo yovoti ngabanye iye yahlolwa kakhulu. Kuxutyushwa iziphumo ezintathu eziphambili:

Imiphumo Yesibeleko

Xa uphando lubonisa umvoteli ngaphambili ngokuphawulekayo, abanye abavoti basenokutsaleleka kumntu othe waphumelela, mhlawumbi ngenxa yokuba bafuna ukuxhasa osenokuba uphumelele okanye ngenxa yokuba bafuna ukuba kwicala eliphumeleleyo. Oku kungenza umjikelo wokuzihlaziya: amanani onyusela akhokelela kwinkxaso engakumbi, etyhalela amanani phezulu. Isiphumo sichazwa ngokukhethekileyo phakathi kwabavoti abathenjiweyo abambalwa abasebenzisa ukuma kokhetho njengomntu obalulekileyo ekwenzeni ukhetho.

Imiphumo Yaphantsi

Ngokuchaseneyo, umvotelwa ulandela kwimiba yokuvota ngamanye amaxesha angatsala inkxaso enovelwano. Abaququzeleli bangafumana ngasemva komphantsi wenja-khuphiswano (hkanjalo ngenxa yokunqwenela ukhuphiswano okanye ngenxa yokuba bavakalelwa kukuba umhlohli ugxothwa ngokungafanelekanga. Oku akuthathi ncam kunombutho kodwa kuqwalaselwe kwimiqolo emininzi ephambili apho isantya sesibini sivumela umntu okwindawo yesibini ukuba afumane umxhasi wangaphambili.

Ukungakhathali nokusebenza

Xa uhlolisiso lubonisa ungquzulwano lomhlaba, abanye abaxhasi be-atle-runner bangahlala ekhaya, becinga ukuba ukuvota kwabo akuyomfuneko. Okwangoku, abaxhasi bomntu ohambayo bangahlala ekhaya, bekholelwa ukuba abaza kuba ngabatshakazi abanathuba. Lento esebenzayo ingacinezelayo kwimijaho engakhuphiyo. Ngokwahlukileyo, xa uvavanyo lubonisa ugqatso olusondeleyo, umvoti uthambeka. Ngaphezu koko, uphando lungaqhuba uvoteko olunoknakeleyo [[[FLT:]] uknakekelo lovotelk-ok-mfota-wesibini kunoko “wawubonisa uvotelwa lwawo olusebenzayo, into eqhelekileyo kwisixhobo sokudubula eside, isininzi esinembuyiselo esikwindawo ebanzi.

Impembelelo Kukhetho Oluphambili Nendlela Efanelekileyo Yokusebenza

Izaphuli-mthetho zingunobangela wokuvuthwa kwempembelelo yokuvota kuba azinawo amandla okuzinzisa amaqela achazwa ngendlela efanayo nonyulo jikelele. Unyulo lwangaphambili, oludla ngokuqhutywa iinyanga phambi kokuba naluphi na uvoti luphoswe, lungachaphazeleka ngokungekho mthethweni kodwa lusalubumba ngokuphawulekayo ugqatso.

“ Impembelelo” Neekeyidi Ezingcolisayo

I-Iowa caucuuses ngokwembali iye yaba libala lokuvavanya abathathi-nxaxheba abaphambili, kwaye uphando olukhokelela kwi-Iowa enempembelelo enkulu yosasazo. Umba onyukayo eIowa ufumana uphando olukhululekileyo, oluthi lwandise ubhaqo lwesizwe, oluthi ngoko luphucule uphando lwesizwe, oluthi ngamanye amaxesha lubizwe ngokuba yi ukungquzula ingqushu yengqushu . Ngonyaka wama-2008, unyuko luka-Owalk Obama's eIowawo emva kokuhlola kwe-Jefferson Dhonerve lwanyuswa ngamajelo amaziko eendaba achaza intsingiselo, nto leyo ebangela uloyisongelo lwakhe olulandelayo.

Ukwenziwa kwesigqibo noMsebenzi weCandelo

Abanikeli abaphezulu baxhomekeke kuphando olungundoqo ukugqiba ukuba ngoobani abaza kunikela imali. Umbhaptizi osoloko ebhalisa 1% kuvotelwa zweni lonke uya kutsala nzima ukunyusa imali, ukwenza kube nzima ukukhuphisana. Iqela elinegunya (_amagosa, abaphathi, namaqela enzala) ajongile ngokusondeleyo ukufumanisa ukuba ngubani ofanele axhase okanye axhase. Isiphumo sisithi kusoloko kuchazwa ngokuphanda okugunyazisiweyo komngeni-ndaba kunokukhutshwa yiminciso yezonazo zotyani, noko kusemaqondweni.

Izithintelo Zokwanda Kwengxoxo

Kwimijikelo yakutshanje, iimfaneleko zengxoxo zidibene nemiqobo yokuvota kukawonke-wonke. Umzekelo, ama-2020 ee-democratic afunekayo kuqala ukuze afikelele kwi-1% ubuncinane kwisithathu sohlolo olufanelekileyo okanye afumane iminikelo evela kubantu abakhethekileyo abangama-65 000 ukwenza isigaba sengxoxo. Le nkqubo yanika uphando lwamandla okugcina amasango asemthethweni: abatsha abangenakukwazi ukubhata-bhata kwii-bhaqo babeqa ngokunelisa mkhenkce kule ngxoxo.

Ucelomngeni Nokugxekwa Kokonakalisa

Kuyo yonke impembelelo yabo, uphando zizixhobo ezingafezekanga. Kutshanje iprofile ephezulu iphosane 2016 kunye no-2020 kunyulo jikelele lwase-U.S.

Ukusebenzisa I - “Spamp Bias ” Nokungaphenduli

Ukubhikica kuxhomekeke ekufikeleleni kumzekelo wabavoti abamele i-odoli. Kodwa amaqondo okuphendula angaphantsi kwe-10% kuhlolo lwemfonomfono, ithetha ukuba abo baphendulayo bangahluka ngokulandelelana kwabo bangaphenduliyo. Kwi-intanethi, isampuli idla ngokujongwa kwimiba yezopolitiko. Ababhexeshi bazama ukulungisa olu qhekeko ngokutyeba, kodwa ubunzima buxhomekeke kulwazi oluchanekileyo ngabemi (nakuko nokuba abantu batshintsha ngokukhawuleza ngokobuzwe, imfundo, kunye nemigaqo yokuvota.

Ukubuza Ngemiphumo

Ukuhlahlela ngokuchanekileyo umbuzo kungaguqula iziphumo eziphawulekayo. Umzekelo, ukubuza “ngenkcitho karhulumente kunye“neempendulo ezikwizibonelelo” kunika iimpendulo ezahlukileyo. Ngokufanayo, indlela ebuzwa ngayo ingaba nokucinga kwabaphendulayo abaphulaphuli. Abaphandi baphambili baphambi kovavanyo lwezixhobo zabo, kodwa ngamanye amaxesha amajelo eendaba enza uphando olungeyongozi oludala ikhethe.

Ingxaki Edala Ixesha

Uluvo lukawonke-wonke lungatshintsha ngokukhawuleza, ingakumbi kwiintsuku zokugqibela zephulo. Uphando olwenziwa iiveki ezimbini ngaphambi koSuku loNnyulo lungaphoswa sisiganeko esiza kwamva okanye ibheliji yezibhengezo. Olunye uqhaqho luye lwaphoswa kukuguquka kwamva kwabavoti abangakhange babanjwe luhlolisiso lokhetho lwangaphambi komhla.

Ukuxhomekeka Ngokugqithiseleyo Nesakhelo Sehashe

Mhlawumbi eyona nto iphambili yokugxekwa kukuba uphando lukhuthaza ukujolisa kogqaliso lohlobo lwamahashe oluthi luphumele kwingxubusho encinci yenkqubo. Xa lonke icandelo leendaba likhokelwa “ngama-Candidite adityaniswe ngo 47%,” abavoti bahlulwa ulwazi malunga nemibandela, iirekhodi, kunye nentanda-bulumko. Abavoti ngoko balungisa imiyalezo yabo ukuze baphucule amanani okhetho kunokuba bafundise okanye bayisele kwiimfanelo.

Ukwanda Kokurhwebelana Nokwaziswa

Uqheliselo lokunyanzela ukuqhutyelwa kwezixhobo kwimijikelo yakutshanje, kunye namaphulo okusebenzisa ii-rodocall kunye ne-SMS ukusasaza ulwazi oluchaphazelekayo phantsi kokwenziwa kophando. INhlangano yeMelika yePublic Opinion Research (AAPOR) iyawugweba lo msebenzi, kwaye amazwe amaninzi aye amisela imithetho efuna ukutyhilwa kwizihlandlo zezobupolitika.

Ukukhangela ngokunzulu kwindlela yophando kunye nemisebenzi elungileyo, Iziko lophando lwendlela iphepha linika iinkcukacha ezineenkcukacha zophando zoyilo nobunzima. Ikhowudi ye-Ethikistiki [[FLT:] ichaza imilinganiselo yobuchule yophando lwano-lwazi olunolwazi.

Uhlolisiso Lwetyala: Ungcoliso Kunyulo Lwakutshanje

Unyulo loMongameli wase-U.S.

Unyulo 2016 ngumzekelo okhankanywe kakhulu wokungaphumeleli kophando kwimbali yanamhlanje. Uhlolo lwesizwe lwabonisa u-Clinton Donald Trump ekhokela u-Trump ngeencopho ezintathu, kwaye waphumelela ivoti ethandwayo ngo 2.1 iingongoma . Ngokusondelele kuvavanyo oluqhelekileyo. Kodwa uphando lwe-reyithi ye-oyile-kuMfter Midwand (Mchigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) lwalubalula, lungaqwalaselwa, lungabonisi ntembelo emhlophe phakathi kwe-collegev. Ukuphosa kwakusithiwa yintlanganisela yempazamo enzima, ubunzima bokujika imodeli, kwaye ukuphelelwa kwe-ekhohlolo-enkuphelo yeentsuku zokugqibela. Isiphumo eso sokwethemba kuvolo-ondo oluphezulu.

2020 Unyulo loMongameli wase-U.S.

Uphando lwesizwe nolombuso ngowama-2020 lwaluchaneke ngakumbi kunangonyaka ka-2016, ngomlinganiselo wesizwe obonisa uJoe Biden phezulu malunga nesibhozo samanqaku , ngokusondele kwincam yakhe ye-4. Ukuqwalasela impazamo ecwangcisiweyo yeengongoma ezintathu-4 kumaphondo amaninzi. Kodwa uluntu oluvolo kwakhona lwajongana nokugxekwa ngenxa yokuphosa umlinganiselo wenkxaso kaTrump kumazwe angundoqo njenge Florida ne Ohio. Isifundo esingundoqo sasikukuba iimpazamo zokucola zisoloko zinxulumene: izinto ezifanayo ezibangela ukuphoswa kwelizwe elinye, zenza ukuphoswa kwento enokwenzeka iphuthe kwezinye iindawo, ukwenza uqikelelo oluthembekileyo kuqikelelo oluthembekileyo kunenqaku elithembekileyo. [FFFLTY:0] imodeli enkulu ye-'emodelity [FFFTY:1]

2020 Intsingiselo Esisiseko Yedemokhrasi: Igange LasePete Buttigieg

I-2020 Democratic ephambili ibonisa indlela uphando lokuqala olunokuba lulahlekise ngayo. Phakathi ko-2019, uJoe Biden waba nolawulo oluyalelayo lwesizwe lwenqaku elimalunga nama-30. Kodwa uPete Buttigieg wavela kwiIowa kacuuses kwiqhina lenyani noBernie Sanders, enyuke ukusuka kwimivo eyodwa kuvavanyo lwesizwe ukuma kulungelelwaniso lwesizwe kwimilo yomhlaba eyomeleleyo nentlupheko ephambili. Kodwa, ukusilela kwakhe ukuqhawula kwimiba yophando yesizwe emva kwe-Iowa (akazange adlule ku-15% yesizwe) ibala lecebo likarhulumente kwizobupolitika zangoku.

2008 Idemocratic Primary: “Imiphumo YeBradley” Intsomi

IDemocratic ephambili phakathi koBarack Obama noHillary Clinton abavavanywayo ukukwazi kobuhlanga ukubamba impembelelo. Abanye abahlalutyi babesoyika iziphumo ze- “Bradley".""--omhlophe abavoti ababeza kuvota abavoteli abaza kuvota abaBlack abaza kuvota abaza kubhenela umchasi omhlophe kodwa emva koko bavote umchasi omhlophe. Enyanisweni, ukuphuma kovavanyo kunye neziphumo zokugqibela zabonisa ukuba u-Obama ngokuqhelekileyo wenza umgca kunye novavanyo lwakhe, becebisa ukuba ucalucalucalulo olukhoyo kuloo mncintiswano. Isiganeko sabonisa ukuba iziphumo zokuvota ohlahlela i-hyothesss kwisizukulwana esinye anokuguqulela ezinye.

Ityala Neseti yesondyebo Engcolisayo

Unyulo oluphambili lubonisa indlela uphando olunokuba luzizalise ngayo. Umvotelwa okhokela kwindawo zangaphambili ezifumana ingeniso yosasazo, olunyusa ulwaziko lwegama, oluthi ngokulandelayo lunyuse amanani ovotelwayo. Oku kwenza ugqatso olusezantsi lwenkcazelo: ivote ixhomekeke kugcino-lwazi lobupolisa njengomgangatho womntu onegunya, nangona kanye isenzo sokuxela uphando sisenza uphando lube namandla. Oku kwabonwa kunyaka-mali-phambili 2016 Republican xa uDonald Trump esoloko ekhokela uphando nangona kungekho ndawo zingqubanisiweyo, njengoko ulawulo lwakhe luqhuba umgangatho ophezulu osasaza umyalezo wakhe.

Abanye abaphengululi bathi uhlolisiso lunamandla kakhulu kumaxesha aphambili kunakukhetho oluqhelekileyo kuba abavoti abanazimvo ezincinane yaye abanalwazi lungako. Ukuvela kwezixhobo zokunxibelelana kwabantu kuye kwayinyusa ngakumbi le nkcazelo, njengoko ixesha lentsholongwane linokuvelisa iziphumo ezikhawulezileyo kumanani okuphanda ade abe ngamabali eendaba ngokwawo.

Isiphelo

Uhlolisiso loluvo lukawonke wonke zizixhobo ezibalulekileyo zokuqonda uvolo, kodwa zinezithintelo ezifuna utoliko olucokisekileyo. Alulingani nje noluvo lukawonke-wonke oluyilo, ingakumbi kwimeko-bume ephantsi yenkcazelo ephambili yonyulo. I-crawagon, umsebenzi wokugcina isango, umsebenzi wokuphengulula imiphetho, kwaye ummi we-meta-ndaba othelekisa zonke izinto kuthetha ukuba usebenzise impembelelo engenakulinganiswa nempembelelo ephambili kwinkqubo yedemokhrasi. Ucelomngeni lwevoti, iintatheli, kunye nabatsha abatsha abamele ukuvavanywa kunye nolwazi olukhoyo, ngokungasayi kusetyenziswa njengegalelo olunye phakathi kwabaninzi, ngokuqwalasela ngononophelo oluthe ngqo kwimibandela nabathathiweyo. Ummi odumile uya kukhangela ngaphezu kwamanani, ububanzi bendlela obungalinganiyo, kunye nomlinganiselo wovavanyo olusasazisindisi-ondo oluseleyo, ngexesha lokuhlola, naluphi naluphi naluphi uvavanyo olusalwazi olusalwazi, oluthe lunga.