Ulawulo lwe-hybrid lumela ulawulo oluntsonkothileyo noludla ngokungaqondwa kakuhle lwezopolitiko oludibanisa ngabom iinkqubo zedemokhrasi nolawulo lobuzwilakhe. Ayingomazwe atshintshayo nje kwindlela eya kwidemokhrasi epheleleyo okanye kwi-ogractal, kodwa yinkqubo eqinileyo esebenzisa kakubi ilungelo lemigangatho yedemokhrasi ngelinge lolawulo-demokhrasi ngoxa ilondoloza amandla olawulo lweziquququ. Ukuqonda amaqhinga awo kubalulekile ekuqondeni uzinzo lwezopolitiko kwimimandla emininzi yehlabathi namhlanje.

Ichaza iHybrid Regimes: Ngaphezu kwedemokhrasi-equality Dichotomy

Izazinzulu zezobupolitika zisoloko zizama ukudibanisa iinkqubo ezingalungelelaniyo nezolawulo-moya kunye nolawulo-malala. Imikhosi ye-hybrid, eyaziwa ngokuba yimithetho encinane elawulayo, ukhuphiswano lolawulo olungqongqo, okanye ubuzwilakhe obuneedemon, ihlala ingummandla ongwevu. Ziphethe unyulo oluthe rhoqo, zigcine umgaqo-siseko, kwaye zivumele ezinye iinkululeko zasekuhlaleni, ukanti zinyuse ibala lokudlala ukuqinisekisa ukuba ii-ccumpbans zihleli. Iimpawu ezingundoqo ziquka:

  • [[UMTL:0] Amaziko edemokhrasi: unyulo oluninzi, iindlu zowiso-mthetho, kunye neenkundla zikhona ephepheni.
  • Iindlela zobundlobongela: ubuncwane belizwe busetyenziswa ukuxhasa amaqela alawulayo, ijelo-lwazi lisebenzisana okanye lilawulwa, inkcaso iyahlaselwa, kwaye umthetho usetyenziswa ngokukhethayo.
  • Ukusetyenziswa kobuninzi: Iqondo elilinganiselweyo lokhuphiswano lwezobupolitika liyavunyelwa, kodwa alize lisongele ukuphatha kolawulo.

Ezi mikhosi azizange zingaphumeleli kwidemokhrasi okanye kwimikhosi ye-autocracy engagqibekanga; ziinkqubo ezakhiwe ngenjongo ezenzelwe ukwandisa uzinzo ngokuboleka ugunyaziso kwidemokhrasi ngexa kugcinwa iindlela zokulawula ulawulo lolawulo lwe-autocracy. Abaphengululi abafana Livitsky kunye neWay (2010) baye babhala indlela ulawulo oluneentlobo-ntlalo oluqhelekileyo olungelulo lawulo lwedemokhrasi kwinkulungwane yama-21.

Imvelaphi Yembali Nendaleko

Ukuvela kolawulo lwemijuxuzo kunxulumene kakhulu nesiphelo seMfazwe Yomlomo. Ngokuwa kwemikhosi yoozwilakhe, iinkokeli ezininzi zenkohlakalo zaqonda ukuba ucinezelo olunyulu lwalungasaxhaswa kwixesha ledemokhrasi yehlabathi lonke kunye noxinzelelo lwezizwe ngezizwe. Endaweni yoko, zamkela imiqathango yedemokhrasi , iipalamente, unyulo. Phantsi kolawulo lwe-Vladimidim Putin ngumzekelo okhuselekileyo: umgaqo-siseko wowe-1993 wadala i-precialism enamandla, kodwa iinguqulelo ezisemthethweni ezilandelayo kunye nomthetho ongakhethi zenza unyulo lwaba yimicimbi yemitshato kunezikhundla zegunya. Ngokufanayo, kwiipalamente, kunyuso-Soviet kunye neendawo ze-Asia, ulawulo lwe-prijini wavumela iinkokeli ukuba zikhusele yaye zingene nyanise ngaphandle kobugradio-odemokh.

Ubuchule Bokungaguquguquki Kwezobupolitika KwiiHybrid Regimes

Ulawulo oluqinileyo lugcina ukuzinza ngomxube olungiswe kakuhle wesinyanzelo, intsebenziswano kunye nokusebenza ngokufanelekileyo. Ezi nkqubo zilandelayo zisembindini:

UKhetho oluLawulweyo

Unyulo lusebenza njengesivalo esibalulekileyo sokhuseleko. Ngokuvumela ukhuphiswano olulinganiselweyo, urhulumente angazibanga esemthethweni ngedemokhrasi lo gama esebenzisa ubuchule bokukhetha ukuqinisekisa ukoyisa. IiTycrics ziquka:

  • [[FLT: 0] Igunya lolawulo: Abachasi abacuphi, ufakela iirulo zovoti, kunye nokulawula ikomishini yokuvota.
  • I-Media i- ucalucalulo lwelizwe oludityanisiweyo nolulungelelanisiweyo luxhasa kakhulu ukhuphiswano, ngelixesha iziphumeli ezizimeleyo zibekwe kumgangatho ophantsi.
  • Ukusetyenziswa koovimba besizwe: Abasebenzi bamakhaya, abahlali, nabavoti basemaphandleni basoloko benyanzelekile okanye benyotywa ukuba bavotele iqela elilawulayo.

Ezi zinto zinciphisa ukungaqiniseki yaye zenza iziphumo zonyulo zicace, zithintele ukungagungqi kokukhuphisana okunokubangelwa lunyulo lokwenene kuluntu olwahluleleneyo.

Ulawulo lwamajelo eendaba kunye nolawulo lolwazi

Ukulawula ulwazi kusisiseko sozinzo lorhulumente oyimichiza. Ngokungafaniyo namajelo apheleleyo alawula ukukhangelwa okupheleleyo, ulawulo lwe-anchidism luvumela amajelo eendaba azimeleyo kodwa luqinisekisa ukuba ezona migangatho zinempembelelo zinobuhlobo kurhulumente. Kumazwe anjenge-Hungary neTurkey, iintatheli ezigxekayo zijamelene nokuhlaselwa okusemthethweni, uphicotho-zincwadi lwerhafu, okanye ukutshutshiswa ngokungqalileyo phantsi kwemithetho echasene nobuphekulawu. Okwangoku, amajelo oluntu ajoliswe kwaye ngamanye amaxesha akhuselwa ngexesha lokuchasa. Oku kusimo solwazi olunefuthekileyo kuthintela ukusekwa kwengxelo edityaniweyo, ukudityaniswa nokukhusela ulawulo ekungcolisweni ngokwesimuzwa.

Ukucinezelwa Okusemthethweni Yinkqubo Yedemokhrasi

Ulawulo oluphenjelelweyo lusebenzisa umthetho njengesixhobo. Abagwebi abazimeleyo banyanzelwa ukuba baphume, iinkundla zomgaqo-siseko zipakishwe, kwaye imithetho yenzelwe ukuhlasela abachasi bezobupolitika phantsi kwembonakalo yokulwa ubuqhetseba, ubugrogrisi, okanye imikhosi egabadekileyo. Umzekelo, eTurkey emva kokuzama ukubhukuqa u2016, urhulumente wasusa amashumi amawaka amagosa asekuhlaleni nabagwebi, echaza ukhuseleko lwesizwe. ERashiya, “umthetho wamazwe angaphandle” uhlazisa uNGO kunye nabaxhasi. Ucinezeleko olusemthethweni lufeza injongo ephindwe kabini: luyalwa isongelo ngoxa kugcinwa intembeko esemthethweni, nto enciphisa ukuphambana nokungquzula kwezizwe ngezizwe.

Imigaqo - siseko Yezoqoqosho Neyokuxhasa

Ubuchule buxhomekeke ekusasazeni iinzuzo zezinto eziphathekayo kwisiseko solawulo. Ulawulo lwe-gybrid lusoloko lulawula amacandelo acwangcisiweyo ezoqoqosho(energy, imigodi, i-tenamente/ kunye nomjelo wabaxhasi. ERashiya, iinkampani eziziziko-rhulumente zinika abalawuli abathembekileyo iisikhundla ezinengeniso, ngelixesha eHungary, imali ye-EU ikhutshwa ngokungenakulinganiswa namali kumazwana karhulumente. Oku kudala uxhaso olunxulumene nezilangazelelo zelungu eliphakamileyo kunye nodidi oluphakathi ekusindeni kolawulo. Xa ushishino lwezoqoqosho lunamandla, ulawulo lunempumelelo, xa luthe lwaphelelwa, ukucinezelwa kwemiqatha, ukuphembeleka kunye nokusasazwa kwenkohliso.

Iingenelo Zezithintelo Eziqinileyo

Kwibutho elibuthathaka okanye elahluleke kakhulu, ulawulo oluyintlanganisela lunganika uhlobo lozinzo olunokufumaneka kwidemokhrasi egqibeleleyo okanye ulawulo-mpatho olupheleleyo. Luthambile ngokwaneleyo ukuhlalisana noninzi lweendawo ngeli lixa kuthintelwa ukukhuphisana kwedemokhrasi.

  • Abaphathi be-Confuct: Ngokusebenzisana kwenkokeli zobuhlanga okanye zengingqi ngoncedo, ulawulo oluyintlanganisela lungadambisa i-separatist okanye iimbambano zamahlelo. Ngokomzekelo, inkqubo yeMalaysia ehlangeneyo, iye yasebenzisa ulawulo-demokhrasi ukulondoloza uzinzo phakathi kwesizwe samaMalaysia, amaTshayina, namaIndiya kangangamashumi eminyaka.
  • inkqubela-phambili: Inkokeli eziqhubela phambili zingasukela izicwangciso ezinde zexesha elide zezoqoqosho okanye zezibonelelo ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka kwemijikelo yonyulo. Singapore, ngeli xesha kungekho rhulumente wemixube eqinileyo, idibanise iintlobo zedemokhrasi kunye nolawulo lombuso olunamandla ukuze iphunyeze inkqubela ngokukhawuleza.
  • Utshintsho oluzenzekelayo: Ulawulo lwe Hybrid ngamanye amaxesha lungaguquka lube yidemokhrasi yokwenene ukuba iimeko ziyavuma, njengokuba kubonakala kutshintsho olucothayo lweMexico ukusuka kumthetho omnye ukuya kwinkqubo yokhuphiswano. Ulawulo lunika umnatha wokhuseleko ngexesha lotshintsho.

Iingxaki Neengozi Ezikude

Nangona zibonakala zizinzile, ulawulo oluneentlobo ezingafaniyo lunokukhokelela ekuweni ngequbuliso.

Ukupheliswa Komthetho

I-façademokhrasi ingaba liphupha. Xa abemi beqonda ukuba unyulo alunantsingiselo kwaye umthetho usisixhobo sabanamandla, ukuthemba amaqumrhu awohlokayo. Oku kusilela kunokuthi kubangele ukuqhankqalaza kwabantu abaninzi, njengokuba kuboniwe kwi-2019 Yuromadan e-Ukraine, ukuqhankqalaza kwango 2019 eLebhanon, kunye nemibhiyozo engama-20222-2823 eIran. Urhulumente we-Hybrid oxhomekeke kakhulu ekucinezeleni ingcinezelo ngaphandle kokuxhasa okuqhelekileyo uyaphelelwa ligunya.

Iziganeko Ezilandelayo

Ulawulo lwe-hybrid lusoloko luxhomekeke kwinkokeli enamandla (i-Prein, u-Erdogan, i-Orban). Xa inkokeli ijongene neemfuno zempilo, ukunqongophala kwenkqubo yokulandelela idemokhrasi kubangela ukungaqiniseki. Ukulwa phakathi kweqela lezidwangube kunokubangela ukungasebenzi okanye ukulwa ngamandla anzima. Amanqam anzima amalunga nomkhosi e-Belarus, apho u-Alexander Lukashenko ajongana noqhankcago olungenakuthelekiswa nanto emva konyulo oluphikisayo, abonisa ukudodobala kwemiqatha kwemibutho ye-ibhydrons.

Uxinzelelo Nezontsomi Zamazwe Ngamazwe

Njengoko izithethe zedemokhrasi zikhokelele kumaziko amazwe ngamazwe, ulawulo lwe-anchid lujongene nokugwetywa, ukugwetywa, okanye ukuhlukaniswa kwemithetho-mthetho. Ukuhlasela kweRashiya ngo-2022 kwakhokelela kwisigwebo esingathethekiyo esonakalisa uqoqosho lwayo kwaye zenza buthathaka ukuzinza kwayo. Ngokufanayo, iGatya 7 leEuropean Union ngokuchasene neHungary nePoland linciphisa imicimbi yomthetho. Uxinzelelo lwangaphandle lungabangela ukunganeliseki kwamakhaya kunye nokuphambuka okuphezulu.

Uhlolisiso Lwemeko Ngobunzulu

Ukuze siqonde indlela ulawulo oluyintlaka - ntsebethi olusebenza ngayo, kuluncedo ukuhlola amazwe athile abonisa iinguqulelo ezahlukahlukeneyo zalo mzekelo.

ERashiya: Udidi lweQumrhu ElineAuthoritarianism

Phantsi kwe Vladimir Putin, iRashiya iphucule indlela yokusebenzisa i-hydrodin. Iinguqu zomGaqo-siseko ngowe-202020 zivumele uPitin ukuba aphinde afumane ubalo lwegama lakhe, nto leyo emenza akwazi ukuhlala elawula de kube ngu-2036. Unyulo lubanjwe kodwa alukhuthazi: inkokeli echasayo u-Alei Navalny yabulawa yityhefu, yaza kamva yafa isejele. I-media ye-media ilawulwa yi-stance-state efana noMjelo-Odwa ne-Russia, ngoxa intathelelana i-makhwetha i-o emkhosini ibizwa ngokuba “zikhundla zamazwe.” Ulawulo lwezokhuselo lokhuseleko lwezokhuselo lwezokhuselo lwemfazwe (FSB) lusebenzisa i-ederal Serviced nkonzo ejongene, isigwebo setyala sawodwa nakubulala abantu abachatsha. Kodwa iRashiya i-Rhulumente, urhulumente, ulawulo lwezol.

ITurkey: Iqela lobuOsteritarianism kunye noMthetho kaElectoritacy

I-Turkey phantsi kweRecep Tayyip Erdogan yeJaji neQela loPhuhliso (AKP) ibonisa indlela ulawulo olunemigaqo olunokuvela ngayo kwisiseko sedemokhrasi. U-Erdogan wakhethwa ekuqaleni njengomvukeli, kodwa emva kokusinda kwilinge lonikezelo 2016, waqinisa igunya ngokukhupha i-palticara, i-judicary, kunye nomkhosi. Utshintsho lomgaqo-siseko ngo-2017 luthathe indawo yenkqubo yepalamente ngegunya elikhulu. Ulawulo luyaqhubeka lubanjwe, kodwa unxibelelwano luthe lwachotshelwa kakhulu, kwaye oyena utshaba oluyintloko, uKemalçlandondarou, wajamelana nokungalungele okusesikweni komkhethe 2023. Nangona kunjalo, u-Erdogan waphumelela uloyilo oluthe lulungela ulawulo oluthe luluvo olulungeleyo, ukubonakalisa ulawulo olulungele ukuthoba ngenkqubo zabo.

EHungary: IIlliberal Populist kwiEU

I-Hungary phantsi kwe-Viktor Orbán inikela ityala lolawulo lwemixube kwi-European Union. Ukususela ngo-2010, iqela le-Orbán lizinzile ukucombulula ii-checks kunye nolungelelwano: inkundla yomGaqo-siseko yapakishwa, amajelo-ndaba athinjwa ngokufumana iiprojekthi ze-oligarchs, kwaye imithetho yonyulo yabekwa phantsi kwe-ogractive. I-Hungary isaqhubeka iphethe unyulo kwaye ihlonela inkululeko ethile yabemi, kodwa ibala lokudlala linyuswe kakhulu. Ilinge yokugunyazisa i-Hungary ngenxa yokungathobeki kwemithetho yomthetho engekho mthethweni. U Orbán usebenzise ubugcisa obuchaphazekileyo kunye nobuzwelo bezoqoqosho ukuze ixhase inkxaso ethandwayo, idala inkqubo ye-okinvolidiyo exutyiswe ngeentlobo ze-othomsm.

EVenezuela: IHybrid Hydrime Esengxakini

IVenezuela phantsi kweHugo Chávez kunye neNicolás Maduro ekuqaleni yasebenzisa ubutyebi be-oyile ukwakha isiseko esidumileyo, ukwenza unyulo kunye neenkqubo zentlalo. Kodwa, njengoko urhulumente wawayo, ulawulo lwaye lwacinezela kakhulu. Isavumela ukuba kubekho unyulo lwemithetho kodwa iboshe iinkokeli zezomthetho kodwa ibophile iinkokeli zeli bhunga elijongene nezonyuso. Unyulo lwangonyaka ka-2018 lwagxekwa ngokuba lubuqhekelele kakhulu. I-Venezuela ibonisa indlela urhulumente ongumdibevanewu onokuthi angene ngayo kwigunyaza elipheleleyo xa isiseko soqoqo lezoqoqosho luwohloka, nto ekhokelela kwingxaki yobuntu nokhuthuko. Imeko ibalase ukuthobeka kobugqaliselo lwemigrafiki exhomekeke ekusebenzeni ngokugqithisileyo.

Uhlolisiso Oluthelekisayo: Isizathu Sokuba Ezinye Iintsholongwane Ezineengqaqa Zisinde Ngoxa Abanye Besiwa

Ubomi bolawulo lwemivukelo buxhomekeke kwizizathu eziliqela: ukudibana kweqonga, ukufumaneka kobuncwane bezoqoqosho, ubuchule benkokeli ekulinganiseni ukucinezelwa kwentsebenziswano kunye noxinezeleko lwabemi kunye nololuntu jikelele. URegimes nolawulo olukhulu lwendalo lunokuthenga uzinzo lwexesha kodwa lungaphelelwa ngamandla xa amaxabiso ehla. Izixhobo ezinamanani alandelelanayo (Singareore) zibonakala zizinzile kunezobuqu. IRegimes ezivumela ubuninzi bendalo (Malassia, Senegal) ziyakwazi ukumelana kakhulu kunalawo asondeleyo (Belans). Ukuxhasa okanye ukukhusela okunjengobulungu obuninzi be-EUSCOM okanye ulungelelance: i-Rériano ixhomekeke kwicandelo le-Rhavies.

“ Ulawulo oluqhaqhazelisiweyo aluzizo iindlela zokwexeshana kodwa luzinkqubo zezobupolitika ezahlukileyo kunye neengcinga zazo zokusinda. Zizinzile kunee-autocracy ezipheleleyo kuba zivumela ukuba ii-valv zokhuseleko zifumaneke, kodwa zibuthathaka ngakumbi kuneedemokhrasi kuba zihlala kwisiseko sobuxoki obulawulwayo.” — Thomas Carnothers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Isiphelo: Impilo Ehlala Ihleli Nekamva Layo Elingaqinisekwanga

Ulawulo olunemiqathango luye lwangqineka lunamandla ngokuphawulekayo kwinkulungwane yama-21. Ngokudibanisa ukufaneleka kweenkqubo zedemokhrasi kunye nokulawulwa kwegunya lolawulo oluphezulu, banikela indlela yokuzinzisa iinkokeli ezininzi ezikufumanisa kungathintelekiyo. Noko ke, olu nyuselo ludla ngokuthengwa ngexabiso lokukhukuliseka kwexesha elide lokuthembana, amaziko, kunye nomthetho. Isifo se-CHOVID-19, imfazwe eUkraine, kunye nokunyuka kwezoqoqosho luye lwavavanya ulawulo lwe-propati, luye lwaveza ubuthathaka bazo. Ezinye zingabhenela kwidemokhrasi yokwenene ukuba iingcinezelo zangaphakathi kunye neengcinezelo ziyaqhubeka; ezinye zingagetyekela kwisiphithi-mfo okanye zingqushu. Ukuqonda i-projectives , imfazwe engaqhelekanga neyoburhulumenteni, kunokuba kube yexeshana, ibaluleke kubafundi bendlela yexesha elingephindo, nakuzama ukulawula ulawulo lwehlabathi, ukuququququququ.

Ukufundwa okubhekele phaya kolawulo olunempembelelo lwemijuxuzo, jonga oluhlolo olubanzi nguSchedler (2013) nomsebenzi wodidi oluphezulu [ Umbhali wobuGhuquzeleli: Hybrid Regimes emva kwemfazwe yoMshowuli [ ngu Levitsky kunye neNdlela. IHouses zonyaka iingxelo zemali ezinika ugcino-lwazi ekuphelitheni kwedemokhrasi kunye nonyuko lwezixokelelwano.