Ukuhlolwa kwezimiso zokukhetha ezingokomlando kunikeza ukuqonda okubalulekile ngokuziphendukela kwezindawo zezombangazwe kanye nokuziphatha kwabavoti ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ngokuhlola okhetho lwesikhathi esidlule, abacwaningi, abaqaphi, nezakhamuzi kungaveza izindlela ezingase zithonye imiphumela yesikhathi esizayo nezinqumo ezingokomthetho. Ukwaziswa kokukhetha − ukudwengula emuva emashumini eminyaka ngisho nasemakhulwini athile emibuso entando yeningi (8) kuveza indlela eshintsha ngayo izibalo zamanani abantu, ezobuchwepheshe, nezokuvota. Lesi sihloko sihlola izinqubo ezinkulu zokukhetha ngokomlando, sihlaziya izibalo eziyinhloko zezendaba, futhi sidingida imiphumela yokubusa kwentando yeningi ekhulwini lamashumi amabili namashumi amabili nambili leminyaka.

Ukubaluleka Kokuqonda Imiqondo Yokukhetha

Ukuqonda izimo zokukhetha kubaluleke kakhulu kubavoti abaningi, kusukela kubavoti kuya kubakhi bemithetho namaqembu ezombangazwe. Umbono womlando osekelwe emongweni usiza ekuhleleni amandla amanje ezombangazwe futhi ulindele amashifu esikhathi esizayo. I-American National Evolution Studies (ANES) neCooperative Evolution Study (CE) iye yahlola izimo zovota kusukela ngekhulu lamaphakathi lekhulu leminyaka, inikeza indawo ecebile ukuze ihlolwe. Ngokuhlola lezindlela, singathola izifundo eziqinisa inqubo yentando yeningi.

Ukuhlanganyela Emsebenzini Nomsebenzi Wezolimi

Ukuthambekela komlando kwenza abavoti babe namandla okuvota ngokufaka imikhankaso yamanje emongweni. Ngokwesibonelo, ukwazi ukuthi umvoti ovele phakathi nokhetho phakathi nendawo ubenesilinganiso esingu-40% kusukela ngo-1970 / kanti ukhetho lukamongameli lucishe lube ngu 55% /helps izakhamuzi ziqonda ukubaluleka kokhetho lwaminyaka. Imininingwane ye-Trend yembula futhi indlela okushintshwa ngayo, njengokuqalisa kokuvota kwasekuqaleni noma ukubhalisa usuku olunye, kuthinta ukuthatha igalelo. U.S.I-EFUCOMFCOM[[[FFLD:1]] inikeza izinombolo ezibonisa lezizimo ezithiyo ezithiyo ngesikhathi.

Icebo Lezombangazwe Nokuhlasela

Amaqembu ezombangazwe nemikhankaso incike ezijwayelweni zomlando zokhetho ukuze kwabiwe imithombo yezindawo ngokuphumelelayo. Ukuhlola isiteji esingaphezulu esisesitejini kuyasiza ekutholeni abavoti abashintshayo namaqembu amanani abantu ashintshayo. Ngokwesibonelo, ukuhamba kancane kancane kwabavoti basedolobheni elikude eRiphabliki eminyakeni yamuva nje kuye kwabhalwa kusetshenziswa ukwaziswa kwesifundazwe okuvela emithonjeni enjenge-MIT Ecompute Data ne-Science Lab. Ukuqonda okunjalo kuvumela imikhankaso yokulungisa imiyalezo ngezindaba zempilo, intela, nemfundo ezibukelweni ezithile.

Ukuthuthukiswa Kwezimiso Zokusetshenziswa Kwesimiso Sezomthetho Nokusekela

Izimiso zokukhetha ziyisilinganiso sombono womphakathi. Abenzi bomthetho basebenzisa imininingwane yokuvota ukuze bahlole ukusekelwa kwemithetho. Ukuthambekela kokwandisa ukubhaliswa kwevoti ngokwayo. Ngokungaphezulu kwa-40% kwabavoti kwezinye izindawo, i-Preciatences ifisa imithetho ye-centrist. Ukuhlola imiphumela yokuthatha isinyathelo kuqala, njengalabo abathola ukubhaliswa kwensangu noma ukukhushulelwa kweholo elilinganiselwe, kunikeza ubufakazi obuqondile bezinto ezithandwa yivoti. [ Ucwaningo lwezentengiselwano njalo] lukhipha izinhlelo zokuhlela imiphumela ehlanganisa ukuvota.

Imikhuba Eyinhloko Yokukhetha Engokomlando

Kuye kwavela ushintsho oluphawulekayo okhethweni olungokomlando olubonisa ukushintsha kwezindinganiso zomphakathi nezinto eziza kuqala kwezombangazwe.

Ukuthambekela Kwezinqubo Zokushisa Izwe

Voter revertout iwuphawu olubucayi lokuthembisana kwezakhamuzi. Umlando ubonisa ukuguquguquka okukhulu okuthonywe yizinguquko ezingokomthetho, imizamo yokuqoqa, kanye nezigxobo ezicatshangelwayo zokhetho. E-United States, ukuvela kokhetho lukamongameli osuka ku- 48,9% ka-2424 kusuka ku-6.9% ku-2020, ngokwe-U.S menethom ye-Centroareaunity [[[.Izici eziyinhloko zihlanganisa:

  • Iminyaka yobudala:[ Ubudala, uhlanga, kanye nesimo sezenhlalo nesomphakathi sivumelana kakhulu nokujika. Abavoti abadala (65+) baye babota ngamazinga angaphezulu kuka-70%, kuyilapho abavoti abangaphansi kuka-30 beye balandela umlando ngaphansi kuka-50%.
  • Uhlobo lokhetho: ukhetho lukaMongameli luvame ukubona amaphesenti aphezulu kunama-10-20 emvubelo kukhetho lwaphakathi nenkathi yokhetho. Ukuphuma ngeminyaka kwehla kangama- 36.6% ngo-2014 ngaphambi kokuba kuphinde kuhlanganiswe ku-25.6% ku-20222.
  • Isimo sezulu esiwubuzwe: Izinqumo ezilawulwa yizindaba ezihlukanisayo noma abafuna ukuthakazela ngokuvamile zihlongoza abavoti abavoti abavoti abavoti. Ukhetho lwama 2020 lwabona irekhodi eliqhutshwa yisifo esiwumqedazwe, ukubhikisha kokwahlulela ngokwezinhlanga, kanye nokunqanda okukhulu.
  • I-Institualial Barriers:[ Imithetho ye-ORD, imikhawulo yokubhalisa, kanye nendawo yokuhlola kuye kwaboniswa ukuvalwa okucindezelayo phakathi kwamaqembu agwegwesi. Ngokuhlukile, kusho ukuthi ukukhuliswa kweposi ekuvoteni kanye nezikhathi zokuvota kwakuqala kwanda ukuthatha isinyathelo.

2. Ukushintsha Kweqembu

Phakathi namashumi eminyaka, izinguquko zeqembu lokuzihlanganisa ziye zaguqula isimo sezombangazwe. I-New Bureedigment yaba-1930 yaletha abavoti abasebenzayo eqenjini le-democratic, kuyilapho i-Southern juningment of 1960 yafaka abamhlophe abavota ngokulandelana kweRiphablikian Party. Izimo zamuva kakhulu zihlanganisa ukwanda kwezikhulu ezizimele kanye nokuhlelwa kwendawo kwabavoti abavelayo.

  • Izikhathi zokulinganisa: Izimo eziphuthumayo ezinkulu zivame ukubangelwa yizinkinga zezomnotho noma izinhlangano zomphakathi. Ukhetho lwango 1932 ngaphansi kukaFranklin D. Roosevelt lwakha iningi le-Democratic elahlala amashumi amaningi eminyaka. Ukhetho luka-1964 no-1968, kanye nokudluliswa kwe-Civil Rights Act, lwasheshisa ukushintshela kwe-South kuya ohlwini lwe-GOP.
  • Izibalo ezizimele: Isilinganiso sabavoti abathi bazimele siye senyuka kusukela ku-20% kuma-1950 kuya kuma-40% namuhla (nakuba abaningi “bangasese” eqenjini elilodwa). Lokhu“kulawula” kwenza amadili angokwesiko anciphe kakhulu futhi kwenza nokhetho lushube nakakhulu.
  • Izinguquko zesifunda: iNyakatho neNtshonalanga iye yaba iDemocratic, kuyilapho i-South neGreat Plain iyiRepublican. i-Midwast, eyake yaba yindawo yokuncintisana kweDemocrats, manje isiyindawo yempi encintisanayo.

Ithonya Elikhulayo Lezindaba Nezigaba Ezingasodwa

Ukuvota okusekelwe kumagazini sekuye kwacaca kakhulu. Ngo-2020, cishe amaphesenti amane kuphela ezinhlanga zeSigele aphumela ekuhlukaneni kwethikithi, ekuthatheni izisu, ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu, nasekuthutheleni. Ukwethembeka komuntu oyedwa kuye kwancipha kakhulu endaweni yendawo; ukuvota okuhlukene phakathi kwe-tekthi kuye kwehla kakhulu kusukela kuma 1970 kuya ekuqothulweni kwanamuhla. Ngo-202020, cishe amaphesenti amane kuphela ezinhlanga zeSigelente aphumela ekuhlukaneni kwethikithi, kwehla kusukela kuma-20% kuma-70. Lokhu kubonisa ukwanda kokuwohloka kwemibono, njengoba kufakazelwa yi-Centreal

Ukuhlola Izenzakalo Zemibono Ephawulekayo

Ukuhlola okhethweni oluthile kunikeza ukuqonda okujulile ngemiphumela echazwe ngenhla, lokhu kuhlola kubonisa indlela izinguquko zenani labantu, ezobuchwepheshe, nokuhlukana kwezinkinga ezihambisana ngayo ukuze kuvezwe imiphumela yokukhetha okuhlala isikhathi eside.

Ukhetho LukaMongameli Ngo - 2008

Ukhetho lwango - 2008 lwaphawula isikhathi esibalulekile emlandweni waseMelika, esasiphawuleka ngokhetho lukamongameli wokuqala waseMelika.

  • Phezulu Voter Turnout:[ Acishe abe ngu 61.6% wabavoti abafanelekayo bahlanganyela, izinga eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-1960. Ukusuka phakathi kwabavoti baseMelika baseAfrika kwanyukela ku-65%, cishe ngokufanayo novoti abamhlophe ngokokuqala ngqá.
  • I-Shifts: umkhankaso kaBarack Obama wahlanganisa ngokuphumelelayo abavoti abasebasha (1829) namaqembu amancane. Abavoti abasebasha basekela i-Obama nge-evers 2 kuya ku-1, futhi amavoti ayizigidi ezimbili ngo-2004.
  • I-Intact of Technology: Iziteshi zezokuxhumana ze-social njenge Facebook ne-Twitter zasetshenziswa okokuqala ukuhlela izisebenzi zokuzithandela kanye nabanikeli abancane bamabhodlela. Umkhankaso ka-Obama waqopha amarekhodi amanani kuyi-inthanethi, umisa indinganiso entsha yokuthembisana ngezinombolo.
  • I-Economic Context: Inkinga yezezimali ka-2008 yenza umnotho waba yindaba ebaluleke kakhulu, izuzisa isigijimi sika-Obama soshintsho kuhlobo lwe-cuntunt Republican.

2. Ukhetho Lobumongameli Lwango - 2016

Ukhetho lwango - 2016 lwembula ukuhlukana okukhulu phakathi kweqembu labavoti baseMelika futhi lwamelana nababikezeli abaningi:

  • UbuPopulism: Bobabili abathathi-mdlandla babona i-populists ezingxakelweni .Bonke babona i-pullists shoctums `````Bernie Sanders ngakwesobunxele' futhi uDonald Trump ngakwesokudla] ebonisa ukunganeliseki okusakazekile ngezombangazwe ezisunguliwe. Ukunqoba kukaTrump e-Electal College kuyilapho elahlekelwa yivoti yentando ye-offral yaqokomisa igest nekubaluleka kwe-buth Belt.
  • Ukuguqula: ukuhlola kokuphuma kwabonisa ukuthembeka okuqopha umlando okuhlukanisayo: 89% woDemocrat wovotelwa ka-Hillary Clinton, kanye no-88% wamaRepublicans for Trump. Isilinganiso sengxenye yokunqoba emazweni okuncintisana kwakuyinsingo, ebonisa isizwe esihlukene kakhulu.
  • Indima ye-Media: Indima yezezindaba ezingokwesiko nezokuxhumana zomphakathi ilololonga umbono womphakathi. Izindaba ezingamanga kuFacebook zahlanganyelwa kunezindaba ezingokoqobo ezinyangeni zokugcina zomkhankaso. Imizamo yokuphazamisa yaseRussia ngezikhangiso ezihloselweyo nama-imeyili acwebhunga ithonya elisha lokhetho.
  • I-Demographics of Distent: Trump yathola ukusekela okunamandla kwabamhlophe abavoti abangasebenza ngamakilasi aphezulu, abazizwa beshiywe ukuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke. Clinton wabuswa phakathi kwabesifazane abafunde ekolishi namaqembu amancane, kodwa uqhelano oluphansi phakathi kwabavoti bama-Afrika aseMelika ezifundayo njengePennsylvania neMichigan lwabonakala luwujuqu.

3. Ukukhethwa Komongameli Ka - 2020

Ukhetho lwango - 2020 lwaluyingqopha - mlando ngezindlela eziningana, kusukela emlandweni walo kuya ezinkingeni eziyingqayizivele zobhadane oluwumqedazwe:

  • I-Record Turnout: kwavota abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-158, izinga eliphambili lama-6.9% (16) kusuka ngo-1900. Ukwanda kokuvota ngeposi, ukuvota kwakuqala, kanye nesisusa esikhulu nhlangothi zombili kwabangela ukuba kuthathiswe.
  • Iposi-levoting and Trust in Institutions: Acishe abe 43% babavoti abaphonsa amabhola ngeposi, kusukela ku-21% ngo-2016. Lomnyaka waholela ekuphikiseni okungokomthetho nasekumangaleleni okungenasisekelo, ukuncishiswa kwezimiso zokhetho.
  • Izinguquko ze-Demographic? C ngokwemathemba, uTrump wathuthukisa ukusekela kwakhe phakathi kwabavoti bamaHispanic nabaseMelika e-Asia uma kuqhathaniswa no-2016, kuyilapho abavoti nezakhamuzi ezindala zasemaphethelweni edolobha bathuthela eBiden. Lezinguquko zisikisela ukuthi imifelandawonye ehlangeneyo ayilungiswa futhi ingazinzi ngokushesha.
  • Izinhlangano zobulungu:[ I-Black Live Matter e-pixel e-2020] i-Black Lives Concess ephakeme yobulungisa bezinhlanga njengendaba eyinhloko, ibhebhethekisa ukuvota kwabamnyama futhi ikakhulukazi phakathi kwabesifazane abamnyama abasebasha eGeorgia, i-Breen.

Ukukhangwa Kwemiqondo Yokukhetha Engokomlando

Ukuqonda ukuthambekela kokhetho olungokomlando kuhlanganisa kakhulu ikusasa lokubusa kwentando yeningi. Lezi zindlela zinikeza incazelo yemiphumela yokukhetha, amasu okuklama, nokuvikela ubuqotho bokhetho.

Ukubikezela Ikusasa Lokhetho

Imikhosi ingasiza ekubikezeleni ukuziphatha kovoti nokuzivota okuzayo. Izimo zezibalo ezihlanganisa ushintsho lwenani labantu, izingcazelo zezomnotho, nezindlela zokuvota ezingokomlando ziye zathuthuka kakhulu. Ngokwesibonelo, ukushintshwa kwabavoti abafunde ekholijini kubhekiselwa eDemocratic Party kubikezela inzuzo ende emazweni anezinga lemfundo ephakeme, kuyilapho ukuhlanganyela kwabavoti abamhlophe abangahleli-mthetho kungalimaza amaRepublic ekuvote. Nokho, ukuncishwa kwemiji yamuva nje, njengempumelelo ye-Trump ne-Curmpssss ngokumelene nokungalawuleki kwemigqa.

Isu Lomkhankaso Nokuthuthwa Kwemithombo Yezinto

Inkambiso isebenzisa ukuthambekela komlando ukuze inqume ukuthi izosebenzisa imali nesikhathi kuphi. Inani elinciphileyo lezifunda ezincintisanayo lisho ukuthi bobabili abagxambukile bagxila ebalazweni elincane. Ukhetho lwango-2020 lwathatha amadollar angaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-4 (R1,4) asetshenziswa emikhankasweni yezombangazwe, amaningi agxile ezifundazweni eziyisithupha zempi. Ukuhlaziywa kokuvota kwabavoti, ukubuya kokhetho kwakuqala, nokubuya emikhankasweni ethile ezindaweni ezithile kusiza ukuba kulungise imisebenzi yabo yokuthumela nemisebenzi ephansi ngokunembe.

Ukubuyiselwa Kwemithetho Nokuthunywa Komphakathi

Ukuqaphela imiphumela yokukhetha okungokomlando kungaqondisa abakhi bezimiso ekuqondiseni izidingo zabameleli. Uma umbango ulokhu uboshelwa empumelelweni engokokhetho. Ngokufana nomnotho noma ukuphathwa kwempilo − législator cishe bangenza. Ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka kwezindawo zokuhlala kanye nomthetho wombuso owodwa kubonise ukuthi inqubo esheshayo iholele ekushintsheni kwezimo ezinjengokukhishwa kwezisu, imithetho yokudubulana, nokungenela kwemibhobho. Inyathelo lokuvota, elisetshenziswa kakhulu ezizweni njengeCalifornia neColoradow, livumela abavoti ukuba badlulise izinyuko zemithetho kanye nezimiso eziqondile; umlando wabo ubonisa ukuthi ukuvuma ngokuvamile izinyathelo ezithandwayo ezithathwayo ezimigqekelweni zeqembu lemigqa, njengokukhutshwa kwempova ngokomthetho noma ukukhokhwazwa okuncane.

Ukuhlanganyela Kwentando Yeningi Nokuthembana

Ukukhuthaza ukubopha izivumelwano zomphakathi kubalulekile embusweni wentando yeningi onempilo. Ukuqonda ukwakheka komlando kungasiza ekuklameni imizamo esetshenziswayo emaqembu aphansi ahamba phansi. Ngokwesibonelo, ukucwaninga kubonisa ukuthi ngokubhalisa okuzenzekelayo kuveza ukwanda kwamaphesenti angu-5-10 entsha namavota ambalwa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhathazeka okukhulayo ngokukhetha ubuqotho ngokufundiswa okunganembile mayelana nendlela okhetho olusetshenziswa ngayo. Ukuthambekela kokungabethembi ezikhungweni zedemokhrasi, kulinganiswa ngezibalo zentsha ne-Pult ne-Gallup, kuwuphawu oluyisixwayiso okumelwe lukhululwe ngokubona nokulungisa.

Isiphetho

Ukuhlola ushintsho lwezimo zokukhetha ngokomlando kunikeza ukuqonda okubucayi ngobukhulu bokuziphatha kokuvota kanye nokusikisela kwakho kokhetho lwesikhathi esizayo. Ngokuhlola izindlela zesikhathi esidlule mayelana novoti kanye neqembu lokuhlangana nethonya lobuchwepheshe nezinhlangano zezenhlalo .---------we singaqonda kangcono ukuyinkimbinkimbi kwenqubo yokhetho kanye nezici ezithonya izinqumo zokhetho. Ukuhlolwa kweze-2009, 2016, no-2020 kubonisa ukuthi umongo, abavoti, nemikhankankani ehlangene ukuze bave imiphumela ekwazi ukubuyisela ukuhleleka kwezombangazwe. Njengoba siqhubeka, kubalulekile ukuqhubeka sihlola le nqubo yokuthuthukisa izinqumo zolwazi nokhetho. Imininingwane yemithombo enjenge-U. U.U.U.U.Creaunication Center, Prew Center, and coufication Center, ne-sethiwes, izakhamuzi, izakhamuzi bezokuhlola izikhulu zeze zezethelela ukuguqula inkathi yezentando.