Ubuhlobo phakathi kovoti nokhetho buye baba yindawo evelele yokuhlola kwezezombangazwe. Ukuqonda indlela amathonya okuguquka aveza ngayo kunganikeza ukuqonda ngenqubo yentando yeningi kanye nezici ezishukumisela izakhamuzi ukuba zihlanganyele okhethweni. Imininingwane ibonisa njalo ukuthi ukuhlelwa kwe-votortetate .[1] Obonisa futhi ohlala ekhaya futhi oza kuqala ukuhlelwa kwenqubo yokuzihambela phambili, uguqula ukuncintisana kwezinhlanga, futhi ngisho nokunquma ukuthi yimaphi amavoti anqobayo. Lesi sihloko sihlola ilens yokhetho lwe-data, sihlola imiphumela yayo engenakulinganiswa emiphumelweni yokhetho, kanye nemiklamo yayo eqinisekisiwe ukuba athathe ingxenye.

Ukuchaza Ugesi Ovela Emkhathini Nokubaluleka Kwawo Okuvamile

I-Voter surpout ivame ukubalwa njengenani labantu abavotayo (VAP) noma inani labantu abavotayo (VEP) elifaka ibhola lokhetho olunikiweyo. Nakuba ukujika okukhulu ngokuvamile kugujwa njengophawu lwempilo yedemokrase, ubuhlobo phakathi kwamazinga okujika kanye nobungako bokumelelwa kwe-injini eyinkimbinkimbi. Ukubuya komvoti kungaveza ukunganaki, imingcele yokwakha, noma ukuhlukanisa okusemthethweni, kodwa kungabonisa ukwaneliseka ngesimo. Ukuqonda i-projectives kudinga ukulahla ukwaziswa kokuguqula kweqembu le-ivolution, i-geography, nohlobo lokhetho.

Ukubaluleka okuvamile kokugwema kusuka esimisweni sokulingana kwezombangazwe: iphimbo lesakhamuzi ngasinye kufanele libe nobukhulu obulinganayo. Uma kuvela i-created futhi kungameleki, izithakazelo zabangewona amaqembu − othambekele ekubeni abasha, abampofu, nabahlukene kakhulu − bahlelekile. Lokhu kungaholela enkambisweni yomphakathi evumela izinto ezithandwa abantu abadala, abacebile, nabamhlophe abavoti. Ukuhlolwa kokwaziswa kwemininingwane nohlelo lweposi kuqinisekisa ukuthi izikhulu ezikhethiwe zinikeza ukunakekela okwengeziwe ezimmelweni zomfakela, zenze inguquko encintiswaneni encikekayo eqekekayo eqenjini eselekile kakade.

Izici Ezishukumisa Ugesi

Iqoqo elicebile lokucwaninga, kusukela encwadini evelele kaWolfinger noRosenstone kuya ekuhloleni kwanamuhla, liveza iqoqo lezakhiwo, iziqu, nezici ezisezingeni eliphezulu ezishukumisayo.

Izithiyo Zezinhlangano Nezomthetho

Imithetho yokubhalisa iphakathi kwemithetho enamandla kakhulu. Izindawo ezibhalisayo noma ezibhalisayo ngosuku olulodwa zibona ukujika okukhulu kunalezo ezifuna amasonto okubhalisa noma izinyanga ngaphambi koSuku Lokhetho. E-United States, zisho ukuthi ukumiswa kwemithetho ye-ID eqinile kuqaphele ukwehla okungenakulinganiswa, ikakhulukazi phakathi kweqembu elincane noma eliphansi lokuvota. Ezinye izici zenhlangano zihlanganisa isikhathi sokhetho (usuku lwamasonto nosuku. ukuvota), ukuvela kokhetho, kanye nokuvela kovota kwasekuqaleni noma iposi. Inhlangano yezentelekele emhla ne-2005% ibonise ukuthi amazwe afuna ukuvota, futhi afezeke njenge-i-i-i-ibhulovota, futhi afezeke ka-55%, uma kuqhathaniswa nezimiso ze-Foctive.[Foctal:0]

Izici Zokuphila Kwabantu Nezezomnotho

Inkathi ingenye yezibikezelo ezinamandla nezingaguquguquki kakhulu. Kukhetho lukamongameli wase-U.S. lwama-2020, phakathi kwalezo ezingu-65 nangaphezulu kwakungu-76%, uma kuqhathaniswa no-91% phakathi kwe 18-24-iminyaka yobudala, ngokwe-.S. Uhlelo lwemininingwane ye-Bureau [. Imfundo futhi ihlanganisa ngokunamandla kanye nokujika: abathweswe iziqu basekolishi bacishe bangama-20-30 amaphuzu acishe aqondene kakhulu ukuvota kunalawo angenayo idiplodis. Ngokwenzuzo, uhlanga, nangokwezinhlanga ezihambisana nalemiklano. Abamnyama nababhili bahamba ngokulandelana kwabo, nakuba igebe encincane i-20 ngenxa yokuzinza nokuncibilika okukhulu.

  • [[I-FLT:0] Age:[ Abavoti abadala bavela njalo ngamazinga aphakeme kunabavoti abasebasha.
  • Imfundo:[ unyaka ngamunye wesikole owengeziwe wandisa amathuba okuvota.
  • [ Ikhona: Iletha abantu ngabanye abavota kakhulu, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yemithombo emikhulu nempumelelo yezombangazwe.
  • Race/Ethnity:[ izithiyo zokwakha kanye nokungavumelani komlando kuveza izikhala eziphikelelayo.

Ukuhlanganyela Kwezombangazwe Nokuthunjwa

Ngaphandle kwamanani abantu, isithakazelo sezombangazwe ngasinye kanye nokuzibandakanya nemizamo yokuzilungiselela. Imikhankaso esebenzisa ukuxhumana ngqo (ukungqongqoza endlini, ukubhalisa ucingo, izikhumbuzo zocingo) iye yaboniswa ukuba yandisa amaphuzu angaphezulu ngo-1 /-10,7 ngamaphesenti ekuhloleni okulawulwayo. Izinhlangano zomphakathi zifeza indima: uma omakhelwane noma amalungu omkhaya ecelwa ukuba avote, ukwanda. Ngokuphambene, izakhamuzi ezinomuzwa wokuthi ukuvota kwazo azinandaba ne-"asmate ""

Ukwandisa Ithonya Lokuvukela Izinzuzo Zokukhetha

Umbuzo oyinhloko uwukuthi izinguquko ezikhona zishintsha ngempela ukuthi ubani owinayo. Izimonyo ezifihlwayo zibikezela ukuthi uma abavoti abasha abalethwa kukhetho bethanda okuhlukile kunovoti abakhona, imiphumela ingashintsha. Ubufakazi be-Empirfial busikisela ukuthi umphumela uxhomeke kumongo, kodwa kukhetho oluseduze, ukushintsha okunganquma.

Ukuhlola Izenzakalo Zezinqumo Eziphakeme

Ngokuvamile okhethweni oluphambili luveza imiphumela ebonisa umbono obanzi womphakathi, ngezinye izikhathi bethanda abazothuthuka noma abafuna ukuletha izinguquko.

  • Ukhetho loMongameli wase-U.S. lufinyelele ku-61.6% wenani labantu abavotayo, abaphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-1968. Umkhankaso kaBack Obama wasetshenziselwa kakhulu ukubhalisa nokuguqula intsha, emnyama, neyamaPhinishini, amaqembu amsekela ngokungenakulinganiswa. U-Analyse wasekelwa yi- Ukucwaninga kweze-Prew Center [[] ebonisa ukuthi umbangowezinhlanga noweminyaka yobuhlanga nobendlulo lwe-volovota olusukayo sobunxele, unezela ku-Obama'engxenye engu-6 ye-RCURCT.
  • 2017 Ummeli wobuPhashana waseFrance wokukhetha: i-Turnout yayingu- 77.9% emjikelezweni wesibili, ephakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo- 1974. Ukunqoba kuka-Emmanuel Macron phezu kwe-Marine Le Pen kwasizwa ukukhula kokuhlanganyela phakathi kwabavoti abasha nabasemadolobheni abahlomele ukuvimbela isokudla. Ukuhlola kwasehova kwabonisa ukuthi isikhathi sokuqala nesokungajwayelekile kwaphulwa kakhulu i-Macron.
  • 2020 Ukhetho loMongameli wase-U.S.: I-Fortuut yathatha umlando ka 66.7% weVEP. UJoseph Biden's umfelandawo ehlangene wahlanganisa ingxenye enkulu yabavoti, ikakhulukazi ezizweni eziyinhloko zempi. Idatha elivela ku- I-Evolution Data ne-Science Lab ibonisa ukuthi ngokwanda okukhulu kakhulu ejijiyo /njenge-Georgia ne-Arizona-Prizona zigcwele ukusuka eRiphabliki kuya eDemocractic, okusikisela ukuthi uvolute ovotayo owenziweyo wandiswe kakhulu wayengcono kakhulu ku-Biden.

I - derpout Nomfanekiso Owenziwe Ngezimbobo

Ukhetho oluphansi luthambekele ekudluliseleni izintando zabadala, abamhlophe, nabathatha kancane kakhulu, kanye nalabo abanesithakazelo esiphezulu sezombangazwe. Lokhu kungaholela ekuphumeleni okungaphunyuki ekuthandeni umphakathi.

  • 2016 Ukhetho lomongameli wase-U.S.: Ukubuya kuka-19.1% kwakuphansi ngokwezindinganiso zomlando. UDonald Trump walahlekelwa amavoti athandwayo ngamaphuzu angu-2,1 kodwa wawina iElectoral College. Ukuhlolwa kokukhetha kwe-American National Evolution Studies (ANES) kwathola ukuthi abangezona izibalo ngo-2016 babehlukene kakhulu futhi bencikekile kakhulu kune-democratic kune-volution kune-volution, isikisela ukuthi ukuvota okuphezulu kokujika kwakungaguqula umphumela we-Electoral College.
  • i-Locate ne Midter Exterm: E-United States, ukhetho lwendawo luvame ukubona ngezansi kwe 25%. Ukucwaninga i-Leachman ne Hall [ kubonisa ukuthi ukhetho lwendawo oluphansi luveza inkambiso ethatha kancane ethatha inqubo engcono kakhulu kubanikazi bempahla nezithakazelo zebhizinisi. Ngokufanayo, u-U.S. phakathi nokhetho lwezimo ngo-2014 [36.4%] lukhiqikele igasi leRepublican engabonisi izintando zomphakathi, eyayihlukene ngisho nakakhulu.
  • [[FLT: 0] Icala eliphakathi: Breut Referendem: U-UK serendamum kumalungu e-EU yabonwa i7.2%. Nakuba leli nani liphakeme ngokuqhathaniswa, ukuhlaziywa Isifundo soMqulu---Equation [ ulwazi lubonisa ukuthi uma ukuvuleka komgomo kwakuphakeme phakathi kwentsha u-vhoota (osekela kakhulu ukuhlala ekhona), umphumela ungashintsha. Ingxenye encane engu-52] ikwenza kube yisibonelo esicacile sendlela yokunquma ukuthi ukuhlelwa kohlelo oluguqulwayo lunganquma ngayo izinqumo ezingoko.

Ukuhlaziya Imininingwane Yemizwa Ye - voter Turnaut: Imibono Yesizumbulu Nesephambano Sesizwe

Ukwaziswa okuvela emithonjeni eminingi kwembula izindlela ezibaluleke kakhulu ekuqondeni impilo yentando yeningi nomphumela wezinguquko.

Ukuthambekela Kwesikhathi Eside E - United States

Unyulo lomongameli wase-U.S. luye lwashintsha-shintsha phakathi kuka-50% no-67% kusukela ngo-1961, futhi kwancipha kakhulu phakathi kuka-1968 no-1969, kulandelwa ukuvuleka okuncane. Ukubuya kwe-midterter kusuka ku-35% kuya ku-50%. Ukhetho lwama-2020 lwaqeda ukuthambekela okuyekwa okudala kokuncipha njengengxenye ye-VAP, eqhutshwa ukuvota iposi okunwebelwe kakhulu phakathi nendawo ebandayo, kanye nokuncitshiswa kwenani labantu. Nokho, ukubuyela eminyakeni engabalulekile kuhlala iphansi, kuqinisekisa umqondo wokuthi izici zokhetho zibalulekile kunezezezezezezezezezezezenzwe zesizwe.

Umehluko Okhona Phakathi Kwezimo Zomuntu Wembulwa Imininingwane Yocwaningo

Abacwaningi baye bafaka ubufakazi bezikhala ezingapheli. Ngokwesibonelo, ngo-2020:

  • Izakhamuzi zase - Asia zazinezakhamuzi ezimhlophe ezingamaphesenti angu - 71, uma kuqhathaniswa nezingamaphesenti angu - 65 ezakhamuzini eziNsundu, izakhamuzi ezingu - 54% zezakhamuzi zase - Hispanic, kanti izakhamuzi zase - Asia ezingu - 59% zazitholakala zitholakala zingenamdlandla. (Ngemva kokulawula imfundo neholo, igebe lobuhlanga lincane kodwa alipheli.)
  • Phakathi kwalabo ababeneziqu eziphambili noma ngaphezulu kwakunamaphesenti angu - 82, kuqhathaniswa namaphesenti angu - 52 alabo abangenaso idiploma yasesikoleni esiphakeme.
  • Uporpurt eqenjini elineminyaka engu - 1824 ubudala (51%) wayengaphansi kwamaphesenti angu - 25 kunalawo angu - 65 nangaphezulu (76%).

Lendaba ehlukanisayo ngenxa yokuthi izinqumo ezithandwa yilamaqembu ngokuvamile zishintsha-shintsha izimpikiswano ezinjengokunakekelwa kwempilo, ukusetshenziswa kwemfundo, nenhlalakahle yomphakathi. imibiko evela eUrban Institute ibonisa ukuthi ezizweni ezinezigebe ezinkulu, ezimise imithetho eqinile kakhulu ezindabeni zentela nemali echithwa emphakathini.

Inkathi Yohambo Lwezizwe Zonke Eqhathaniswa

I-IDEA yezwe lonke ibonisa ukuthi isilinganiso samazwe emhlabeni wonke sifinyelela ku-65% okhethweni lwesizwe. I-Western Europe ngokuvamile ibona ukuthatha indawo ephakeme (75-85%) kune-United States, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yezimiso zokulinganisela ukumiswa, ukuvota, nokuvota ngempelasonto. Amazwe ase-Latin America anjenge-Brazil ne-Uruguay afinyelela u-80% + ukuhoxa ngokubhalisa okuzenzekelayo nokuvota okuphoqelelwe. Ngokungafani, amazwe alandela i-commun aseMpumalanga Yurophu ngokuvamile ayaziwawa kakhulu ezindaweni ezingamashumi amahlanu namahlanu,60%, ebonisa ukwehla kancane kwezelelwa ezikhundleni. Ukuthambekela okusukela ngo-1990 kusungulwe i-democracism, okuqhutshwa ukubuyiselwa kwentsha (ivoti enkulu) nokunganeliseki kakhulu ngezinhlangano zezombangazwe zezombangazwe.

Izindlela Zokwandisa I - voter Turleut: Izindlela Zokufinyelela Ezisekelwe Ebufakazini

Izincwadi eziqinile zesayensi yezombangazwe nezimiso zokuziphatha komphakathi zinikeza ukungenela okuvivinyiwe kokwandisa imvume, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwamaqembu angakholeki.

Izinguquko Zokwakha

  • Ngokuzenzakalelayo I-Voter Evorbligionation (AVR): Amazwe asebenzisa i-AVR, njenge-Oregon ne-Colorado, abona amazinga okubhalisa enyuka nge 10-20% nokwanda okuncane kodwa okuphawulekayo. Ukuhlaziywa i-Brennan Center yeJaji[ kubonisa ukuthi i-AVR inciphisa izinhlanga ekubhaliseni.
  • I-Mail iqala kakhulu kanye ne-Mail: Ukwenza ukuvota kungcono kakhulu kuthuthukisa amaphuzu angamaphesenti angu-2-8.7 ngokwe-meta-alyses yokuhlolwa kwe-U.S.. Nokho, umphumela unamandla kakhulu kubavoti ababolekisayo nakulabo ababhekene nemingcele yesikhathi. Abagxeki baphawula ukuthi ukuvota iposi kungandisa izingozi zokukhwabanisa kancane kancane, nakuba izindaba ezifakazelwe zingavamile kakhulu.
  • Ubhaliso lwe-Daystruction (EDR): okwamanje] endaweni ezifundazweni ezingu 22 kanye ne-D.C., EDR yandisa amaphuzu angaphezulu ngo 5-10 kukhetho lukamongameli. Iphumelela kakhulu phakathi kwabasebasha nabavoti abahamba ngemoto abangase baphuthelwe isikhathi esingokwesiko.
  • I-CPUIIdiliziwe:[ Ngenkathi kuphikiswana ngezombangazwe, ukuvota okuphoqelelwe okunezinhlawulo ezilinganiselwe (njengase-Australia) kuveza izikhala ezingaphezulu kuka-90% futhi kunciphisa imingcele yezenhlalo nezomnotho ekuhlanganyeleni. Kuguqula futhi amasu omkhankaso, njengoba amaqembu kumelwe akhalise bonke abavoti kunokuba abavoti abangase bavote.

Ukungenela Kokuziphatha Nomphakathi

  • I-Directing and Social Pressure: Insimu enkulu yesilinganiso ngokuhlola i-Gerber, Green, ne Larimer (2008) yabonisa ukuthi ukuthumela okukhumbuza izakhamuzi ukuthi umbhalo wazo wokuvota ukhuphuka obala ngamaphuzu ahlukene. Amasuntswana okucindezela kwezenhlalo asebenza kodwa athanda ukugcunuleka uma zifuna ihlazo.
  • Ilaphu elisekelwe kwi-community: ugezo lwendlu nomnyango lwezisebenzi zokuzithandela zendawo, ikakhulukazi uma ihilela ingxoxo emfushane yokuthi kungani izindaba zokuvota zikhuphuka, inyuswa ngama-4/8 ngamaphesenti. Umphumela uba namandla kakhulu uma umdwebi wendwangu evela emananini afanayo noma endaweni efanayo.
  • Izinhlelo ze-Youth-Focleds: Ukubhalisa kwangaphambi kwe 16-kanye no 17-odaliwe, kanye nezifundo zesikole esiphakeme ezihlanganisa nokhetho lokugcona, kudala umkhuba wokuvota. Ubufakazi obuvela eNorway nase-U.S. bubonisa ukuthi ukuchayeka ngokushesha ekuvoteleni kwandisa ukuvota okhethweni ngokulandela ngo 5-10 amaphuzu angamaphesenti.

Isiphetho: Ukuhlanganyela Ngokulinganayo Kwentando Yeningi

Ithonya lomvoti ophendulile ekuphumeleni kokhetho likhulu futhi lilinganiselwe. Ukuphendukela okukhulu nokukhulu nokuyi-amele akwenzeki kuqinisekise noma yimuphi umphumela okhethekile, kodwa kwenza ukuba ukuhlelwa kwe-votortete kubonise ngokuseduze kakhulu ukugcwala kwezakhamuzi, okwenza izimiso ezilandelayo zibonise kakhulu zonke izidingo zomphakathi. Ngokunjalo ukuphenduka okuphansi, ikakhulukazi uma kubekwa emaqenjini athile, kujikijela ukumelela futhi kungenza ukulingana okungalingani okusebenzayo. Ukwaziswa kokucwaninga kwamashumi amaningi eminyaka emazweni amaningi kwenza kucace ukuthi umklamo wenhlangano nokuhlolelwa kwemi kungenza kube nokuhlanganyela okuphawulekayo. Njengoba i-democraficrafic izinselele zokuguqula isigaba, ukulahla, ukutshala ukusungula ubufakazi obusekelwe ekuthuthukiseni elinye lamacebo asebenzayo ukuze kuqinise imvume yonke futhi kuqinise imvume yokusekela yonke into.