Masankho alionse, ovota amavotera, amafunsidwa ndi mafoni, ndi mafoni amene amati amakopa anthu. Zina mwa zinthu zimenezi ndi zopangidwa bwino zimene zimapereka chidziŵitso chapamwamba cha ovota. Ena amapanga dala kugwiritsa ntchito ovota omwewo — njira yokakamiza. Kusiyanako kungakhale kochenjera, koma zotsatirapo za kulakwa kwa wina n’zofunika. Kuchititsa kukayikira zinthu zogwirizana ndi democracy, kutulutsa zosokezera, ndipo ngakhale zigamu za masankhoti. Nkhaniyi ikufotokoza mmene angavomerezere kukakamiza kusanthula, chifukwa chake kupenda kovomerezeka kumamatira ku miyezo ya sayansi, ndi mmene aliyense — kwa ophunzira kwa aphunzitsi — kupenda mosamalitsa — kungachepetse mochenjera chidziŵitso.

Kodi Kupotoza Anthu N’kutani?

Kufufuza kokakamiza ndi mtundu wa kufufuza kolinganizidwa osati kusonkhanitsa chidziŵitso chenicheni koma kusonkhezera kapena "kuyankha ku lingaliro lakutilakuti kapena cholinga cha kuvota. Mawuwo anayambitsidwa m'ma 1970, koma mchitidwewo uli ndi maziko aakulu m'kutenga ndale zadziko. Mosiyana ndi mavoti ovomerezedwa, amene amagwiritsira ntchito mawu auchete ndi zitsanzo zina zopanda pake kuti aone ngati pali malingaliro, kusonkhezera anthu kufunsa mafunso olemera, mawu osatsimikizika, ndi kuwakopa. Cholinga chawo chachikulu ndicho kukopa, osati kuyerekezera.

Mafufuzidwe a boma amachititsanso anthu kutsutsana ndi mayeso a ku United States omwe satsatira malamulo a zachuma pokhapokha ngati iwo akuchirikiza mwachindunji kapena akulimbana ndi munthu wobatizidwa. Komabe, mayiko ambiri ali ndi ziyeneretso zoulula. Bungwe la Federal Communications Commissions (FCC) layambanso kukambirana ndi kukakamiza anthu ofufuza amene sadziwa gulu lochirikiza ndalama. Ngakhale zili choncho, kukakamiza anthu kufufuzako kumakhala kofala — ndipo — chida choyendera ndawala za ndawala, makamaka m'nthaŵi ya projectivesssssssssss ayesa kuwononga gulu lopanga zinthu popanda tsankho.

Zitsanzo Zakale za Mavuluvu Opopera Anthu

Imodzi ya machitidwe ofufuza otchuka kwambiri inachitika pa 2000 South Carolina Republican yoyamba. Oimba osadziŵa anafunsa ovota kuti: “Kodi mungakhale ndi kuthekera kosankha John McCaine ngati mudziŵa kuti iye anali ndi mwana wakuda wakuda? Funso limeneli linali lonama kotheratu — Mwana wamkazi wa McCain wa ku Bangladesh yemwe anatengedwa ndi Bangladesh anali wodyeredwa machenjera a upotu wa fuko. Kufufuzako sikunakondweretse kusonkhanitsa maina; linalinganizidwa kuchepetsa chichirikizo cha McCain pakati pa otchuka.

Chochitika china chotchuka chinali "Bradley chiyambukiro" — chochitika chotchedwa ndi meya wa Los Angeles Tom Bradley, amene anataya mpikisano wa California wa 1982 mosasamala kanthu za kutsogolera m'kufufuza koyambirira. Ngakhale kuti si kukakamiza kufufuza kwenikweni, chochitikacho chinasonkhezera kupenda mmene malingaliro aufuko obisika angasokonezere kusanthula. Kufufuza kochititsa kugwiritsa ntchito zikhoterero zobisika zoterozo mwa kuyambitsa mwadala chidziŵitso chonyenga kapena kukuza mawu opambanitsa, kukulitsa tsankhu limene lilipo mmalo mwa kupenda malingaliro amene alipo.

Njira Zopangira Mavu

Kufufuza kokakamiza kumagwiritsira ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana zimene zimawasiyanitsa ndi kufufuza koyenera:

  • Chidziŵitso chonyenga: Amapereka zonena zosatsimikizirika kapena zopeka ponena za wofuna kubatizidwa kapena nkhani, ndiyeno kupima zimene woyankhayo achita.
  • [[FLT :0] Chinenero choponyedwa mwa mawu: Mawu onga "kuvunda," "radial," "kubisa," kapena "chinsinsi" amagwiritsiridwa ntchito kudzutsa yankho lamwamsanga la malingaliro.
  • Mawu osatsutsika: Mafunso amene amayamba ndi "Kodi mungachirikize wofunsira amene waimbidwa mlandu wachinyengo? Ngakhale pamene kulibe chikhulupiriro choterocho.
  • Chosankha chodetsedwa: Ovomereza amapemphedwa kusankha pakati pa kutsutsa kowonekera bwino ndi kwachilendo kapena kwabwino, popanda kusankhapo mbali.
  • Nthaŵi ya kuŵerengera: Kufufuza kwa Legitimate kaŵirikaŵiri kumatenga mphindi 10-20; kukakamiza kusanthula kungakhalitse mphindi imodzi kapena ziŵiri, kusumikidwa kotheratu pa kope limodzi.

Mavuto Ochititsa Chidwi

Kufufuza kochitidwa ndi lamulo kuli njira yadongosolo, yasayansi yopimira malingaliro a anthu. Mabungwe ofufuza otchuka amatsatira miyezo yokhazikitsidwa imene imatsimikizira kuti chidziŵitsocho nchodalirika, chopanda tsankho, ndi choimira. Miyezo imeneyi imagwirizanitsidwa ndi mabungwe aukatswiri monga ngati American Association for Public Opinion Research (APOR).

Kugwiritsa Ntchito Sambiki ndi Kuimira Munthu Wopanda Chibadwa

Pamutu pa kusanthula koyenera kuli chitsanzo chongochitika mwamwayi. Ofufuza ochitidwa bwino amene anafunsidwa mwanjira imene imapatsa chiŵalo chilichonse cha anthu ojombedwawo mwaŵi wofanana (kapena wodziŵika) wa kukhala wophatikizidwa. Izi zimapezedwa mwa kutumiza mafoni kwa foni kwachisawawa, kapena zitsanzo zochokera ku maadiresi a makalata ndi mayeso. Opaleshoni ya OnOpt-in njofala kwambiri koma ikufuna kulemera kwapamwamba kwa ndandanda ya anthu kuti akonzeretutsa kusankha kwaumwini.

Kukula kwa muyeso kumapezedwa ndi mlingo wofunidwa wa kulunjika. Kufufuza kwa dziko kwa 1,000 okhoza kuvota, maperesenti ndi pafupifupi 76 percentage pamlingo wa 95% . Malamulo ofufuza nthaŵi zonse amasimba ponse paŵiri ukulu woyesera ndi m’mphepete mwa cholakwa. Amalongosolanso chiŵerengero cha anthu (m’mzera, "achimo," "voti olembetsedwa," "mwinamwanovoti" ndi madeti a chigawo.

Zimene Anapanga Kuti Azipeza

Masankho alamulo amapeŵa kutsogolera, kunyamula, kapena kufunsa moŵirikiza. Funso lolinganizidwa bwino nlachidule, losaloŵerera, ndi kugwiritsira ntchito mawu ogwirizana. Mwachitsanzo: "Ngati chisankho cha pulezidenti chichitidwa lerolino, kodi mungavote kaamba ka Candidate A kapena Candidate B? Limodzi ndi funso lokakamiza: "Kuperekani maupandu ake a kusaona mtima, kodi mungalingalirebe kusanthula kaamba ka Chingaladale A? Zosankha zakale; zoyesayesa za pambuyo pake kutsutsa.

Chitsogozo cha Funsonso. Kufufuza kopanda lamulo kusanthula njira za yankho kuti mupeŵe ziyambukiro za kuvomereza kapena ziyambukiro za ulamuliro. Zimaphatikizapo "osadziŵa" ndi "othia" zosankha, kulola ofunsidwa kusankha popanda zotulukapo zolakwika. Kufufuza kokakamiza kaŵirikaŵiri kumasiya zosankha zimenezi, kukakamiza kusankha kugamula.

Kupenda Njira

Kufufuza koyenera kufalitsa tsatanetsatane wa njira yake yofufuzira. Izi zimaphatikizapo njira yoyesa, kukula kwa mayeso, njira zolemera, ndi gulu lochirikiza. Pew Research Center , mwachitsanzo, imapereka zolembedwa zazikulu za kufufuza kulikonse, kuphatikizapo mafunso, zotsatirapo zake, ndi njira yofufuzira. Zoulutsira mawu monga The New York Times ndi FiveTThirtyeight zimafunanso kufufuza kuti apeze mayankho aakulu

Miyezo ya Akatswiri ndi Kupenda Ausinkhu Wawo

Ofufuza ambiri ovomerezeka ali m'mabungwe a akatswiri monga AAPOR kapena World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). Mabungwe ameneŵa amakhazikitsa malangizo a makhalidwe amene amaletsa machitidwe onga kufunsira. Kuwonjezerapo, maphunziro ndi osakhala apartisan, kaŵirikaŵiri amafufuza mabungwe (IRB) kuvomerezedwa kutsimikizira kuti amasamalidwa bwino anthu otenga nawo mbali. Makampani ofufuza malonda angakhale ndi uyang'aniro wofanana, koma amene ali ndi mbiri yaitali — monga Gallup, You Gov, ndi Ipsos — amagonjera modzi ku marketmarks.

Mmene Mungapangire Tsoka Lowononga

Kusiyanitsa kufufuza kokakamiza pa kufufuza koyenera kumafuna kusamala kwambiri ndi zizindikiro zingapo zochenjeza.

"Chiyeso Choyenera Kukhala Choona"

Ngati kufufuza kwanena kuti mtsogoleri wamkulu wosayenerera wa wobatizidwa, kapena kunena kuti 80% ya ovota amachirikiza malo otsutsana, khalani okayikira. Kufufuza kochitidwa mwalamulo kaŵirikaŵiri sikumapereka zotulukapo zowopsa zoterozo. Kufufuza kopambanitsa kumachitikadi, koma kuyenera kutsagana ndi amwarbats. Kufufuza kokakamiza kaŵirikaŵiri kumapambanitsa kuchirikiza kapena kutsutsa kupangitsa lingaliro lolakwika la mphamvu.

Mafunso Ovuta Kapena Ovuta

Mvetserani mafunso amene amayamba ndi mawu onga "Kodi mukudziŵa kuti..." kapena "Kodi kuli kofunika kwa inu kuti..." Malo ameneŵa amagwira ntchito monga akavalo a Trojan kaamba ka chidziŵitso chonyenga. Mwachitsanzo: "Kodi mukudziŵa kuti Wopanga X anasankha kukweza misonkho pa gulu lapakati katatu? Ngati mfundoyo ili yonama kapena yosocheretsa, kusanthulako ndiko kukakamiza anthu kuchititsa.

Kulephera Kugwiritsa Ntchito Njira Zovuta Kuzigwiritsa Ntchito

Ngati kufufuzako sikutchula ukulu woyesera, mzera wa zophophonya, kapena gulu lochirikiza, ndithudi sikuli kusanthula koyenera. Kufufuza kokakamiza sikumavumbula chidziŵitso chimenechi. Ngakhale ngati kuliko, fufuzani wopereka: kodi ndikampani yofufuza yodziimira, ndawala ya chigaŵenga, kapena gulu lapatsogolo lokhala ndi dzina ngati "Chitazen for Trunety Govern"?

Kungoyamba Kupita Patsogolo Ndiponso Kusumika Maganizo pa Chinthu Chimodzi

Kufufuza kochitidwa ndi lamulo kukhudza nkhani zambiri ndi kutenga mphindi 10-20 kuti apereke. Kufufuza kokakamiza kumatenga mphindi zosachepera zisanu ndi kusumika maganizo pa nkhani imodzi kapena imodzi.

Kulephera Kupereka Zotulukapo

Atamaliza kuŵerengera kovomerezeka, amafalitsa kapena kuikidwa m’malo monga Roper Center kapena iPoll. Kufufuza kwa flash sikumatulutsa zotulukapo chifukwa chakuti sanalinganiziridwe konse kupima kanthu kalikonse. Ngati simupeza chofalitsidwa chilichonse cha zotulukapo, samalirani ntchito yosanthulayo ndi kukayikira kopambanitsa.

Kusiyana Pakati pa Kuipitsa ndi Kuyesa Uthenga

Nkofunika kusasokoneza kufunsira ndi "kuyesa mauthenga," kachitidwe koyenera ka kufufuza kogwiritsiridwa ntchito ndi mautumiki. M'kupima uthenga, ofunsidwa amasonyezedwa zolembedwa zokhala ndi malembo opeka kapena mfundo zolankhula ndi kufunsidwa kuti ndi iti imene iri yokopa. Cholinga nchakuti apange kulankhulana kopambana, osati kufalitsa mabodza. Kuyesa uthenga kuli kooneka bwino ndi cholinga, kugwiritsa ntchito chinenero chosaloŵerera, ndipo kaŵirikaŵiri kumapereka zotulukapo za mkupiti wa mkati. Kufufuza kosiyana ndi, kumabisidwa monga mayeso enieni ndi kufalitsa chidziŵitso chosokeretsa.

Ntchito Yoipitsa M’zoulutsira Nkhani ndi Demokalase

Kuipitsa kuli ndi ntchito yofunika m'machitaganya a democracy: kumapatsa chithunzithunzi cha malingaliro a anthu, kumaŵerengera akuluakulu osankhidwa, ndi kudziŵitsa ovota ponena za mkhalidwe wa mafuko. Komabe, kufalikira kwa kufunsira kokakamiza — makamaka kupyolera mwa ma ronocall, mauthenga, ndi manyuzi a mayanjano — kumawopseza ntchito imeneyo. Pamene ofufuzawo ataya chidaliro m'chidziŵitso chonse chofufuza, mbali zonse za malingaliro a anthu zimawonongeka.

Ziyambukiro za "Banwagon" ndi "M’mbuga"

Kufufuza kwa m’manja kungasonkhezere khalidwe la wovota kupyolera mwa ziyambukiro za gulu la ovota (anthu amachirikiza wowonekera kukhala wopambana) ndi ziyambukiro zotsika (anthu amamvana ndi woloŵa). Kufufuza kwa machenjera kwagwiritsira ntchito dala zikhoterero zamaganizo zimenezi mwa kupanga mtsogoleri wokulira kapena kutsata mwamanyazi. M'mafuko apafupi, ngakhale kukakamiza pang'ono kungasinthe mavoti okwanira kusintha chotulukapo. [5TTTTHREY CH kwalembamo zochitika zambiri kumene kusanthula mabukhu ofufuza zinthu kusintha mkupinyirira.

Thayo la Kuŵerengera Ziŵerengero za Anthu

Makampani oulutsa nkhani ali ndi thayo lakufufuza mosamalitsa asananene. Mwatsoka, pofulumira kutsegula nyuzi, mabungwe ena a panyuzi amasonkhezera kufufuza popanda kutsimikizira njira zawo. Njira yabwino kwambiri ndiyo kungotchula zofufuza zimene zimakwaniritsa miyezo ya kuonekera kwa maso — mwachitsanzo, zimene zimaŵerengedwa ndi FiveThirtyheight’s preset stables, zimene zimalemba makampani ofufuza molondola ndi moonekera bwino. Olemba nkhani ayeneranso kuzindikira pamene kusanthulako kuchitidwa ndi kampani ya RGBCC kapena wofufuza mwiniyo.

Mfundo Zothandiza Kuti Tisachotse Mavudzi

Kaya ndinu wophunzira wolemba pepala, mphunzitsi wolinganiza maphunziro a boma, kapena wovota amene akuyesa kumvetsetsa malo osankhira, zitsogozo zimenezi zidzakuthandizani kusiyanitsa chidziŵitso chodalirika ndi kupotoza.

1 Dziwani Kuti Ndi Wotani

Pezani gulu limene linalipira ndi kuchititsa kufufuzako. Ochirikiza otchuka amaphatikizapo malo ofufuzira nkhani, mabungwe aakulu a nkhani, mayunivesite, ndi makampani ofufuza anthaŵi yaitali. Muzikayikira makampani osankhidwa ndi mkupiti wa wobatizidwa, Super PAC, kapena gulu la anthu otchuka opanga mapepala omveka bwino. Ngati woperekayo sadziŵika kapena akutchedwa dzina lolakwika (m’ lekuatiso, "Americas for Truth", from.

Onani mfundo zina zimene zingakuthandizeni kudziwa zimene mungachite kuti mukhale ndi moyo.

Kodi ndani anafunsidwa? Achikulire, ovota, kapena ovota? "Mosakayikitsa, ovota" ndiwo muyezo wagolidi wa masankho, koma mafunso ojambula ayenera kufotokozedwa. Komanso fufuzani zotsatirazi: malo ochezera ndi maselofoni, ndi ngati mapulogalamu a pa Intaneti anagwiritsidwa ntchito. Kufufuza kopindulitsa kwambiri kumaphatikiza mitundu yambiri (foni, Intaneti, makalata) ndi kugwiritsa ntchito zitsanzo zooneka ngati n’zofunika.

3. Onetsetsani Funso Lanu

Ngati mulipo, werengani mafunso onse. Pezani mawu oyenera, kusankha bwino, ndi kuikamo "osadziwa". Samalani mafunso amene amayamba ndi "Kodi mukudziwa kuti..." kapena "Patsani..." — amenewo ndi mbendera zofiira.

4 Muzifufuza Njira Zosavuta Kugwiritsa Ntchito

Mafufuzidwe ambiri otchuka amafalitsa mawu a sayansi ya zanyengo amene amaphatikizapo masiku, kukula kwa madeti, kulemera, ndi njira zolankhulirana. Ngati chidziŵitso ichi sichipezeka, samalani. Cross-seck ndi miyezo ya APOR: iwo amafuna kuvumbulidwa kwa mawu ofunsa, kukula kwa madeti, ndi kuyankha kwa kuŵerengera kulikonse kolinganizidwa kutulutsidwa kwa anthu.

5. Yerekezerani ndi Zopotoza Zochuluka

Palibe kufufuza kotsimikizirika. Gwiritsirani ntchito ofufuza onga FiveThirtyeight, RealsPolitics, kapena wotsatira wosankha wa The Economist kuona kugwirizana kwa kufufuza kosiyanasiyana. Ngati wina afufuza mopambanitsa, kukhoza kukhala kolakwika — kapena kofufuza kokakamiza. Onaninso nthaŵi: kufufuza kochitidwa mkati mwa nyengo ya nyuzi kungawonetse mitu ya mlungu umenewo mmalo mwa malingaliro otsika.

Tapendani Mlingo ndi Kulemera kwa Anthu

Malipoti a kuyankha kwa mafoni atsika kufika pa madigiri amodzi. Mayeso ofufuza apereka lipoti ndi kulongosola mmene tsankho losafuna kugonja limasamalidwira mwa kulemera. Ngati palibe njira yoyankhira, kufufuzako kungakhale kugwiritsa ntchito zitsanzo zopanda kulephera kulemera. Kufufuza kwa pa Intaneti kumene kumadalira pa anthu odzisankhira okha (ngati "Tantha pano ku vota") sikuli kwasayansi.

Gwiritsani Ntchito Zipangizo Zothandiza Kufalitsa Zinthu Zokopa Anthu

Five-heaty imapereka ziŵerengero zopimira kwambiri za kuipitsa zimene zimalemba makampani pa kulondola kwa mbiri, kuonekera, ndi kulimba kwa njira. Asanatchule kusanthula kulikonse, pendani kuŵerengera kwake. Wofufuza ndi "A" ali wokhulupirika kwambiri kuposa "C" kapena "D". Ofufuza ambiri amagwera m'mizere yaing'ono chifukwa savumbula njira zonse kapena alibe cholembera cha kukondera.

8. Chenjerani ndi Mavulidwe a Mumtengo

Kampeni zotsegula nthaŵi ndi nthaŵi kuti apange manyuzipepala. Kufufuza kumeneku kungakhale koyenera — koma chifukwa chakuti n’kosadziŵika ndi kuti si kwa ausinkhu wanu, ayenera kusamala. Zimodzimodzinso ndi "kufufuza kwa wailesi" kochitidwa pa manyuzi, kumene kulibe phindu la sayansi.

Kumaliza

Kufufuza kochitidwa ndi makampani sikuli kopanda vuto — kuli mtundu wa kupotoza kwadala kwa ndale zimene zimasokeretsa ovota, kuipitsa mbiri, ndi kululuza chidaliro m'zochita za demokrase. Kukhoza kusiyanitsa pakati pa kufufuza kokakamiza ndi kufufuza kochitidwa ndi sayansi kuli luso lofunika kwa aliyense amene amagwiritsira ntchito nkhani zandale. Mwakufunafuna mawu osagawanika, njira zooneka bwino, kupenda kopanda pake, ndi wochirikiza wotchuka, mukhoza kupeŵa kutengeka ndi chidziŵitso chonyenga kapena chosocheretsa. Aphunzitsi, makamaka, ali ndi thayo la kuphunzitsa mosuliza mmene angasanthula masankho — osati kokha m’nyengo ya masankho, koma monga chizoloŵezi cha moyo chokayikira, kukhala nzika yodziŵitsidwa. Mbadwo cha chidziŵitso chopambanitsa, funsolo sililinso zimene ongonena, koma kaya kulondolako.