Imibuso eqinile imelela isigaba esiyinkimbinkimbi nesingaqondwa kahle sokubusa kwezombangazwe esihlanganisa ngamabomu izinqubo zentando yeningi nokulawula ngempoqo. Ayizona nje imibuso eshintshayo endleleni yokubusa ngentando yeningi noma yokubusa ngentando yeningi, kodwa kunalokho izimiso eziqinile ezisebenzisa kabi ilungelo lezinhlangano zentando yeningi kuyilapho zilondoloza izinzuzo zokubusa kwe-autocratic. Ukuqonda amakhenikha abalulekile ekuqondeni ukuzinza kwezombangazwe ezifundeni eziningi zomhlaba namuhla.

Ukuchaza iHybrid Regimes: Ngalé kweDemocracy foo Idemocracy Dichotomy

Ososayensi bezombangazwe sekuyisikhathi eside belwa kanzima ukuhlukanisa izimiso ezingangeni kahle embusweni wentando yeningi kanye nombuso we-autocracy. Imibuso ye-hybrid, eyaziwa nangokuthi imibuso enegunya elincane, ukuncintisana kwempoqo, noma ukuphatha ngempoqo, isendaweni empunga. Bakhetha njalo, bagcine umthetho wesizwe, futhi bavumele inkululeko ethile yomphakathi, kodwa ngokuhlelekile banyakazisa indawo yokudlala ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi abaxhasi abancintiweyo bayaqhubeka besebusweni. Izici eziyinhloko zihlanganisa:

  • [[QUT:0] Izinhlangano zentando yeningi: Ukhetho oluningi, izishaya-mthetho, nezinkantolo kukhona ephepheni.
  • Imikhuba yempatho yempoqo: isetshenziselwa ukusekela amaqembu abusayo, imithombo yezindaba ingenayo noma ilawulwe, ukuphikiswa kuyahlukunyezwa, futhi umthetho usetshenziswa ngokungakhethi.
  • Ukuthatha ubuningi: Izinga elilinganiselwe lokuncintisana kwezombangazwe livunyelwe, kodwa alisokuze lisongele ukuphatha kombuso.

Lemibuso ayihluleki ukubusa ngentando yeningi noma imibuso ye-autocracy engaphelele; iyizimiso ezakhiwe ngenjongo eziklanyelwe ukuqinisekisa ukuqina ngokufaka ubukhosi edemokrasi kodwa zigcine izimiso zokulawula uhulumeni wentando yeningi. Izazi ezinjenge- Livitsky ne-How (2010) ziye zafaka ubufakazi bokuthi i-projectiveswordsy iye yaba uhlobo oluvame kakhulu lwe-ongewona amagunya edemocratic khulwini lama-21.

Imisuka Engokomlando Nokuziphendukela Kwemvelo

Ukuvela kwemibuso exubile kuhlobene kakhulu nokuphela kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Ngokuwa kwemibuso yobushiqela, abaholi abaningi abakhohlakele baqaphela ukuthi ukucindezelwa okumsulwa kwakungasaxhaswa enkathini yezimiso zentando yeningi nengcindezi yomhlaba wonke. Kunalokho, bamukela imifantu yentando yeningi , amaphalamende, ukhetho. Ngankathi kubekwa phansi kwe-Vladimir Putin kuyisibonelo esiqinile: umthetho- 1993 wadala inguquko enamandla yembulunga yonke, kodwa inguquko engokomthetho eyalandelanayo nomthetho ongakhethi iye yaguqula okhethweni baba amasiko okwakha imibuso yentando yeningi kunokulwa kwemincintinga. Ngokufanayo, ezindaweni ze-Soviet nezindawo ze-Asia, i-octiveracity yavumela abaholi ukuba bavikele futhi bafake isilinganiso esiqotho sobusweni sombuso wangaphandle kwentando yezwe langaphandle.

Imishini Yokuqina Kwezombangazwe Ezindaweni Ezinamakhambi

Imibuso eqinile igcina ukuzinza ngenhlanganisela ehlelwe kahle yokuphoqelela, ukubambisana, nokusebenza ngokusemthethweni. Izinqubo ezilandelayo ziyinhloko:

Ukukhetha Okulawulwayo

Ukukhetha kusebenza njengevalve ebalulekile yokuphepha. Ngokuvumela ukuncintisana okulinganiselwe, umbuso ungasho ukuthi unegunya elingokomthetho lentando yeningi kuyilapho usebenzisa ugesi wokulawula ukuvololwa ukuze uqinisekise ukunqoba kwawo. Ama-tactic ahlanganisa:

  • Ukuphatha: Ukudumaza abaphikisi, ukuvota iziqeshana, nokulawula ikhomishane yokhetho.
  • ubandlululo lwe-media:[ Umbuso ozinziswe futhi ohlangene nemithombo yezindaba isekela kakhulu i-Screenbant, kuyilapho iziphumo ezizimele zibekwa ngokwezinga eliphansi.
  • Ukusetshenziswa kwemithombo kahulumeni: Izisebenzi zomphakathi, abaholi bempesheni, nabavoti basemaphandleni bavame ukucindezelwa noma ukufumbathiswa ukuba bavotele iqembu elibusayo.

Lemikhuba inciphisa ukungaqiniseki futhi yenza imiphumela yokukhetha ikwazi ukubonakala kusengaphambili, ivimbela ukuntengantenga kokhetho oluqotho olungaveza ukuncintisana emiphakathini ehlukene.

Ukuphathwa kwemithombo yezindaba nokulawula ulwazi

Ukulawula ukwaziswa kuyisisekelo sokuzinza kombuso oxubile. Ngokungafani nemithetho egcwele elawula ukucushwa kwemithetho emelene nobuphekula, imibuso exubile ivumela imithombo ethile yezindaba ezimele kodwa iqinisekisa ukuthi amapulatifomu anethonya kakhulu anobungane kuhulumeni. Emazweni anjenge-Hungary ne Turkey, izintatheli ezigxekayo zibhekene nokuhlukunyezwa okungokomthetho, ukuphehlwa kwentela, noma ukuqulwa okuqondile ngaphansi kwemithetho elwa ubuphekula uhulumeni. Okwamanje, imithombo yezindaba yezenhlalo iyahlolwa futhi ngezinye izikhathi ibekwa phakathi nokuphikisa. Lokhu kusimo kokwaziswa okunethonya kakhulu kuvimbela ukwakhiwa kwengxoxo ehlangene yokuphikiswa, ukuhlukanisa nokuvikela umbuso ekuwohlolweni kwezentengo.

Ukucindezelwa Ngokomthetho Ngentando Yeningi

Imibuso eqeqeshiwe isebenzisa umthetho njengesikhali. Abahluleli abazimele baphoqelelwa ukuba baphume, izinkantolo zomthetho-sisekelo zigcwele, futhi imithetho yenzelwe ukuhlasela abaphikisi bezombangazwe ngaphansi kwenkohliso yokulwa nenkohlakalo, ubuphekula, noma ukuthatheka. Ngokwesibonelo, eTurkey ngemva komzamo wokugumbuqelwa u2016, uhulumeni wasusa amashumi ezinkulungwane zezisebenzi zomphakathi nabahluleli, ukhuluma ngokuphepha kwesizwe. ERussia, “umthetho wangaphandle” uhlazisa uNJOGO nabashisekeli bempi. Ukucindezelwa okungokomthetho kufeza injongo ehlukene: kuyaluphula usongo kuyilapho ukulondoloza ukukhohlakaza okungokomthetho, okunciphisa ukuvinjwa kwezizwe zonke izizwe.

Izimpikiswano Zezomnotho Nezekhasimende

Ukuhleleka kuncike nasekusakazeni izinzuzo zezinto ezibonakalayo eziyinhloko. Imibuso ye-hybrid ivame ukulawula izingxenye ezisemqoka zezomnotho(energy, imayini, i-tenameter , ne-tenameters ukuxhasa abasekeli. ERussia, izinhlangano ezisungulwe uhulumeni zinikeza izikhundla ezingenisa imali ephambili kubantu abathembekile, kuyilapho eHungary, izimali ze EU zincishiswa ngokungenakulinganiswa. Lokhu kwakha uxhaxhakamfulo oluhambisana nezithakazelo zezikhulu nesigaba esiphakathi nesigaba esikhona sombuso. Uma ukuphumelela kwezomnotho kunamandla, umbuso ujabulela ukuthandwa; lapho kuntenga, ukucindezelwa nokusakaza nokusakaza imposiso kukhuliswa.

Izinzuzo Zempi Yama - Hybrid Regimes Zokuhlala Uqinile

Emiphakathini elula noma ehlukene kakhulu, imibuso exubile inganikeza uhlobo lokuzinza olungakhonziswa idemokrasi ehlanzekile noma i-autocracy emsulwa. Ivumelana ngokwanele ukuba ivumelane nezindawo ezisebuningini kuyilapho ivimbela isiyaluyalu sokuncintisana kwentando yeningi. Izinzuzo eziqondile zihlanganisa:

  • Abaphathi be-Confuct: Abaholi abahlanganisa ubuzwe noma izifunda ngokuxhasa, imibuso exubile ingadambisa ukuphambanisa noma izingxabano zamahlelo. Ngokwesibonelo, isimiso somfelandawonye waseMalaysia, siye sasebenzisa ukulawulwa kwentando yeningi ukuze silondoloze ukuzinza phakathi kwamaMalaysia, amaShayina, namaNdiya amashumi amaningi eminyaka.
  • Ukuqhubekeka kobupholisha: Abaholi abathatha isikhathi eside bangaphishekela amasu ezomnotho noma esisekelo eside ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka kwemijikelezo yokhetho. Singapore, nakuba kungewona umbuso oyingxubevange ngomqondo oqinile, ihlanganise izinhlobo zentando yeningi nokulawula kwezwe okunamandla ukuze intuthuko iphumelele ngokushesha.
  • Ushintsho oluvelayo: Imibuso ye Hybrid ngezinye izikhathi ingaphenduka ibe yintando yeningi engcono uma izimo zivuma, njengoba kubonakala kumthetho wengxenye eyodwa eMexico, ushintsho oluthatha kancane ukusuka esimisweni sokuncintisana. Isimo esilawulwayo sombuso sinikeza inetha lokuphepha phakathi nezinguquko.

Izinselele Nezingozi Ezihlala Isikhathi Eside

Naphezu kokuzinza kwazo okubonakala kuqinile, imibuso exubile ibhekana nokuphikisana okuzuzwe njengefa okungaholela ekuweni kungazelelwe.

Ukuwohloka Komthetho

I-façade yentando yeningi ingaba yize. Uma izakhamuzi zibona ukuthi ukhetho alunanjongo futhi umthetho uyithuluzi lezinhlangano ezinamandla, ezithembela ezinhlanganweni eziwohlokayo. Lokhu kuhluleka komthetho kungabangela ukubhikisha okukhulu, njengoba kubonakala ku-2013-2014 Euromadan e-Ukraine, ukubhikisha kwango-2019 eLebanoni, kanye nemibhikisho engu-2022 2923 e-Iran. I-Hybrid ethembele kakhulu ekucindezelweni kwemiza ngaphandle kokusekela okuthandwayo.

Izinkinga Zokuphumelela

Imibuso ye-hybrid ivame ukuxhomeke kumholi onamandla (Phydin, Erdogan, Orban). Lapho umholi noma ubhekene nezimo zempilo, ukuntuleka kwezimiso ezicacile zokulandelana kwentando yeningi kubangela ukungaqiniseki. Ukulwa phakathi kwabaphezulu kungaholela ekugogekeni noma ekulweni ngamandla anobudlova. Inkinga engu-2020212021 eBelarus, lapho u-Alexander Lukashenko abhekana khona nokubhikishela okungakaze kubonwe ngemva kokukhethwa okuphikisayo, kubonisa ukuwohloka kwezimiso zenhlanganisela.

Ukucindezela Nokuhlanzeka Kwamazwe Ngamazwe

Njengoba inqubo yentando yeningi iye yagxila ezinhlanganweni zomhlaba wonke, imibuso exubile ibhekene nokulahlwa, izijeziso, noma ukuhlukaniswa kwezizwe. Ukuhlasela kweRussia i-Ukraine ngo-2022 kwaholela ekutholeni izijeziso ezingakaze zibonwe eziye zalimaza umnotho wayo futhi zanciphisa ukuzinza kwayo. Ngokufanayo, iSiphakamiso 7 se-European Union ngokumelene neHungary nePoland ngenxa yokukhathalela imithetho siye sanciphisa icebo lazo. Ukucindezela kwangaphandle kungasheshisa ukunganeliseki kwasekhaya nokuphambuka okuvelele.

Ukuhlola Izenzakalo Ngokujula

Ukuze siqonde ukuthi imibuso exubile isebenza kanjani, kuyasiza ukuhlola amazwe athile abonisa izinhlobo ezihlukahlukene zalesi sibonelo.

IRussia: Uhlobo Lwe - Companitive Authoritarianism

Ngaphansi kwe-Vladimir Putin, iRussia iye yathuthukisa indlela yokulawula exubile. Izinguquko zomthetho ngo-2020 zivumele uPiton ukuba aphinde asebenzise igama lakhe, kumnikeze amandla okuhlala ebusa kuze kube ngu-2036. Ukhetho luyenziwa kodwa lunganciphisani kakhulu: umholi wokuphikiswa kuka-Alei Navalny wabulawa ushevu, waboshwa, futhi kamuva wafa esejele. Izindawo zezokuxhumana zibuswa yizimpoqo zombuso ezinjenge-Channel kunye ne-Russia Today, kuyilapho intatheli yezindaba ezizimeleyo ibekwa ngokuthi “izithunywa zezwe.” Umbuso usebenzisa i-Federal Security Service (FSB) ukuze ulwe isiphiwe somthetho, umthetho wesizwe, nokhetho olulinganiselwe.

ITurkey: I - Authoritarianism ehlangene noMthetho Ka - Electoritacy

I-Turkey ngaphansi kweRecep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) ibonisa indlela uhulumeni oxubeneyo ongavela ngayo esisekelweni sentando yeningi. U-Erdogan wakhethwa kuqala njengomsekeli wenguquko, kodwa ngemva kokusinda emzamweni wokwehlulwa kuka 2016, waqinisa amandla ngokukhipha i-palettel, i-judiciary, nempi. Izinguquko zomthetho ngo-201717 zathatha indawo yesimiso sephalamende ngesisekelo esinamandla. Izimiso ziyaqhubeka zigcinwa, kodwa imithombo yezindaba icusumbuliwe kakhulu, futhi umphikisi omkhulu, uKemalçlaçdaloru, wabhekana nokungabi namathuba okuhleliwe kukhetho lwama 2023. Naphezu kwalokho, u-Erdogan wazuza ukunqoba okuncane, ebonisa ikhono lombuso ukuba ukulondoloza ukufaneleka kwazo ngokukhetha ngokulunga.

IHungary: I - Illibaral Populism EU

I-Hungary ngaphansi kukaViktor Orbán inikeza indaba yokubusa kwe-produkn phakathi kwe-European Union. Kusukela ngo-2010, iqembu le-Orbán liye lachitha izinhlelo nezilinganiso ezihlelekile: inkantolo yomthetho-sisekelo yagcwala, imithombo yezindaba yabanjwa ngokuthola iziphakamiso ngama-oligarch, futhi imithetho yokukhetha yabekwa i-gerrymanched. I-Hungary isaqhubeka nokhetho futhi ihlonipha inkululeko ethile yomphakathi, kodwa inkundla yokudlala itshekile kakhulu. Imizamo ye-Europe Union yokugunyaza i-Hungary ngenxa yokubusa kwemithetho ephula umthetho iye yathatha kancane futhi ayisebenzi. U-Orbán uye wasebenzisa izinkulumo ezimelene nokusekela okuqinile nobuzwelonye ukuze alondoloze ukusekela okuthandwayo, ukwenza isimiso sentando yemvelo esihlanganisa imibuso engokwentando yonke.

IVenezuela: Impicabadala Esahwaqabele Esenkingeni

IVenezuela ngaphansi kweHugo Chávez neNicolás Maduro ekuqaleni yasebenzisa ingcebo kawoyela ukuze yakhe isizinda esithandwayo, ibambe okhetho nezinhlelo zezenhlalo. Nokho, njengoba umnotho uwohloka, umbuso wacindezelwa kakhulu. Kusavumela ukuba kuthathwe umthetho kodwa kuboshele abaholi abamelene nomthetho kodwa balawule umkhandlu wokhetho. Ukhetho luka-2018 lwalahlwa kakhulu njengenkohliso. I-Venezuela ibonisa indlela umbuso wenhlanganisela ongakhukhuleka ngayo ekubeni ube nesimiso sokubusa ngempoqo lapho isisekelo sawonga, kuholela enkathazweni nesobusweni bezentengiselwano. Icala ligcizelela ukuwohloka kwezimiso ze-projectives ezithembele kakhulu ekusebenzeni ngokusemthethweni.

Ukuhlaziya Okuqhathanisayo: Isizathu Sokuba Ama - Hybrid Regime Asinde Lapho Abanye Bewa

Ukuphila isikhathi eside kombuso we-pronethi kuxhomeke ezicini eziningana: ukubambisana kwabaphezulu, ukutholakala kwemithombo yezomnotho, ikhono lomholi lokulinganisela ukucindezelwa ngokulandelana, namandla omphakathi nokucindezela kwezizwe zonke. URegimes onakho ukuqashwa kwempahla yemvelo enkulu (i-Russia, i-Senegal) angathenga ukuqina kwesikhathi kodwa lapho intengo yentengo incipha. Ama-Regime anezimiso zokulandelana (Singareore) athambekele ekuzinzeni kakhulu kunabantu abazimele. I-Regimes evumela ukuba izakhiwo zemvelo (ifassia, Senegalgia) ziqine kakhulu kunalezo eziseduze kakhulu (Belans). Ukusekela noma ukuvikela kwe-EURome noma ukuphatha okukhulu, kuxhomeke futhi e-Rhavie.

“ Imibuso eboshiwe ayizona iziphakamiso zesikhashana kodwa ihlukile kodwa izimiso zezombangazwe ezinengqondo yazo yokusinda. Zizinzile kune-autocraccas yangempela ngoba zivumela ama-valv okuphepha, kodwa zivuleka kakhulu kunentando yeningi ngenxa yokuthi zisekelwe esisekelweni samanga alawulwayo.” — Thomas Carnothers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Isiphetho: Impilo Ehlala Njalo Nekusasa Layo Elingaqinisekile

Imibuso eqinile iye yabonakala iqinile ngokuphawulekayo ekhulwini lama-21. Ngokuhlanganisa ukufaneleka kwezinqubo zentando yeningi nokulawula amandla abusayo, banikeza indlela yokuzinza abaholi abaningi abayithola ingavinjelwe. Nokho, lokhu kuqina kuthengwa ngezindleko zokuncishiswa kwethemba, izinhlangano, nokubusa komthetho. Ubhadane lwe-CHOVAD-19, impi eUkraine, nokungalingani kwezomnotho okukhuphukayo kuye kwavivinya yonke imibuso ye-propatialgine, kuveza ubuthakathaka babo. Abanye bangaphendukela embusweni wentando yeningi yeningi uma ukucindezela kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kuvumelana; abanye bangageleza bengena esiphendundumeni esimweni esiphelele. Ukuqonda izinhlangano zezombangazwe njengecebo elihlukile nelesikhashana, kunokuba kube icebo lesikhashana, kubaluleke kakhulu izazi, ukubusa, nokufuna ukubusa kwezakhamuzi zomhlaba.

Ukuze ufunde okwengeziwe ngemisebe yemibuso exubile, hlola lokhu kubukeza okubanzi nguSchedler (2013) nomsebenzi wesiko [ i-Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes ngemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi [ ngu-Levitsky kanye nendlela. [[FLT:]] Izikhulum House House [ inikeza ukwaziswa ekunciphekeni kwembulunga yonke yentando yeningi kanye nokwanda kwezimiso ze-probit.