Kunoma imuphi umjikelezo wokhetho, abavoti bagcwele ukuhlola, izingcingo, kanye nama-web site abuza imibuzo ethi iveza umbono womphakathi. Amanye amathuluzi okucwaninga aklanywe ngokuzikhandla anikeza ukuqonda okubalulekile kokukhetha abavoti. Abanye baklanywe ngamabomu ukuba balawule labo abavoti abafanayo — ubuciko obaziwa njengokuphoqelela. Umehluko ungacasha, kodwa imiphumela yokuzikhohlisa kwabanye ibalulekile. Ukugomela ukuncintisana kunciphisa ukuthenjwa ezimisweni zedemocricracy, ukuda, ngisho nokukhomba imiphumela. Lesi sihloko sichaza indlela yokuqaphela ukuphoqa izicelo, ukuthi kungani ukuncintisa okungokomthetho kunamathela ezindinganisweni eziqinile zesayensi, nendlela noma ubani — kubafundi abakwazi ngayo ukubheka ukwaziswa — kungacubunga kahle ukwaziswa kwabo.

Ziyini Izinhlansi Zokuphoqelela?

Inhlolo - vo ecindezelayo uhlobo oluthile lokuhlola oluklanyelwe ukuqoqa ukwaziswa okuqotho kodwa ukuthonya noma uku-"phulula" ukusabela embonweni othile noma enhloso yokuvota. Leligama laqanjwa ngawo-1970, kodwa lomkhuba unezimpande ezijulile ekubhikisheni kwezombangazwe. Ngokungafani nokuhlola okungokomthetho, okusebenzisa ulimi olungathathi hlangothi kanye namasampula angenawo avamile ukuze kulinganiswe, kuphoqelelwe ukuncika imibuzo ethwele, iziphakamiso ezingaqinisekisiwe, nezihehalelo ezingokomzwelo. Umgomo wabo oyinhloko yilokho okuyekelelayo, hhayi ukulinganisela.

I-Federal Communications Commission (FCC) ibuye ixazulule futhi i-process ezisekelwe ekuhloleni okungavumelani nokunye. E-United States, ngokuvamile azikho imithetho yezezimali elawulwa ngaphansi kwemithetho yezezimali ngaphandle kokuba zimmelele ngokuqondile noma zimelane nombhalisa. Nokho, izifunda eziningi zinezimfuneko zokudalula. I-Federal Communications Commis Commission (FCC) iye yathatha futhi impikiswano ngokuphoqelela ukuhlola okuhluleka ukuhlukanisa inhlangano exhasayo. Naphezu kwalokho, ingcingo iyaqhubeka ihlala ikhona — futhi insela — ithuluzi emikhankankani yezombangazwe, ikakhulukazi phakathi nezindawo lapho abacela ukuhlasela ngokungakhethi.

Izibonelo Ezingokomlando Zezinhlansi Ezimpoqo Ezicindezelayo

Enye yezindlela zokuhlola ezidume kakhulu yenzeka phakathi nonyaka ka 2000 eNingizimu ye-Carolinaan. Abafoweli abangaziwa babuza abavoti: "Ingabe ungakhetha uJohn McCaine uma wazi ukuthi wayezale umntwana omnyama ongekho emthethweni?" Lombuzo wawungamanga ngokuphelele — indodakazi kaMcCaine yaseBangladesh yokutholwa yayiyisisulu sobuthakatha bobuhlanga. Ukuhlola kwakungasenasithakazelo ekuqoqeni ukwaziswa; kwakuklanyelwe ukudambisa ukusekela kuka-Mc Cain phakathi kovoti wezenkolo.

Enye indaba edumile yayihlanganisa "imiphumela yeBradley" — into ebizwa ngomphathi-maya waseLos Angeles uTom Bradley, owalahlekelwa umjaho kambusi waseCalifornia wango1982 naphezu kokuhola ekuhloleni kwangaphambi kokukhetha. Nakuba kungekukhona ukuphenya okuphoqelelwe, lesisenzakalo sabangela ukuhlolisiswa kwendlela izimo zezinhlanga ezifihlekile ezingakuguqula ngayo ukucubungula. Ukuhlola okucubungula kusebenzisa ubandlululo olufihlekile ngokuveza ngamabomu ukwaziswa okungamanga noma okunehaba, ukuthuthukisa ubandlululo olukhona kunokuba kulinganisele imibono ekhona.

Izindlela Zobuchwepheshe Ezisetshenziswa Ekungcoliseni

Ukuhlola okucindezelayo kusebenzisa amasu amaningana ahlukile awenza ahluke ekuhloleni okungokomthetho:

  • [[Ukwaziswa okungamanga: Banikeza imibono engangaqinisekiyo noma eqanjwe ngomlandeli noma umagazini, bese behlola ukusabela kophendulayo.
  • [ Ulimi oluphinyiselwe ngokuphandle: amagama afana "i-corrupt," "radical,"" noma "imfihlo" asetshenziselwa ukuvusa ukusabela okungokomzwelo okusheshayo.
  • [ Izinkulumo ezingaxazululeki: Imibuzo eqala ngo-"Ungamsekela yini ozothola isigwebo sokukhwabanisa? Ngisho noma kungekho ukuqiniseka okunjalo.
  • [[NTL:0] Ukukhetha okungathandeki: Abaphendulayo bayacelwa ukuba bakhethe phakathi kwezimpawu eziphambene nezingacacile noma eziqondile, ngaphandle kokungathathi hlangothi.
  • Ubude bobuhlaziyi: Ukuhlola kweLegitimate kuvame ukuthatha imizuzu engu-10-10-20; ukusunduza ukuhlola kungathatha imizuzu eyodwa noma emibili, kugxile ngokuphelele kumagazini owodwa.

Izindlela Zokungcolisa Okufanele

Ukuhlola okusemthethweni kuyindlela ehlelwe kahle, engokwesayensi yokulinganisa umbono womphakathi. Izinhlangano ezihlolayo eziqanjiwe zilandela izindinganiso ezimisiwe eziqinisekisa ukuthi ukwaziswa kuthembekile, akunazici, futhi kumelelwa. Lezizindinganiso zihlanganiswa izindikimba eziqeqeshiwe njenge American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

I - sampling Engakhethi Nokumelela

Isikhungo sokuhlola okungokomthetho kumane nje kuyisibonelo esivamile. Ukuhlola okuphethwe kahle kunikeza ilungu ngalinye lesisulu amathuba alinganayo (noma aziwayo) okukhona. Lokhu kufinyelelwa ngokushaya ucingo olungenamthethweni, noma ngezibonelo ezisekelwe ekhelini leposi nakuhlolwa kwabantu. I-operaf-in ivame kakhulu kodwa idinga ukulinganisela okuyinkimbinkimbi kwezibalo ukuze kulungiswe ubandlululo.

Isampula lobukhulu inqunywa izinga elifiselekayo lokulunga. Ekuhloleni kwesizwe se-1, eyinkulungwane engaba abavoti, i-menu yephutha cishe yi-3% yamaphuzu esilinganiso sokuqiniseka. Izinhlolo ze-geditite njalo zibika kokubili ubukhulu besampuli nobubanzi bephutha. Zichaza futhi inani labantu abalinganiswayo (umz., "Omapholi," "umvoti obhaliwe," cishe "mvoti"" nezinsuku zensimu.

Umklamo Wokungabaza

Izinqumo ezigunyaziwe ziyakugwema ukuhola, ukulayisha, noma ukubuza imibuzo ephindiwe. Umbuzo ohlelwe kahle ucacile, awuthathi hlangothi, futhi usebenzisa amagama angaguquki. Ngokwesibonelo: "Uma ukhetho lukamongameli luqhutshwa namuhla, ungavota u-A noma u-Candidate B?" uma uphikisana nombuzo wokuhlola ophoqelelwe: "Yiba amahlazo akhe enkohlakalo, ungasakwazi ukuvotela i-Candidate A?" Izinyathelo zangaphambili; imizamo yokugcina yokuveza impikiswano.

Uhlelo lombuzo futhi lunendaba. Ukuhlola okungahleliwe kuhlelelwa ukukhetha ukusabela ukuze ugweme ukuphinde uthathe ithonya noma imiphumela yobukhulu. Kuhlanganisa "awazi" kanye "okanye" ukukhetha, kuvumela abaphenywa ukuba bakhethe ngaphandle kwemiphumela. Ukuhlola kokucindezela ngokuvamile akuzifaki lezinketho, kuphoqelela ukuba bakhethe ngokukhetha okuhlukile.

Ukubonisa Phambili Ngokusebenzisa Indlela

I-'enye ikhipha ukwaziswa okunemininingwane ngendlela yayo yokuhlola. Lokhu kuhlanganisa indlela yokuhlola, ubungakanani obuyisampuli, isilinganiso, i-fonethi yephutha, izinqubo zokusindwa, nenhlangano exhasayo. Isikhungo sokucwaninga se-Pew, ngokwesibonelo, inikeza imibhalo ebanzi kulokhu kuhlola, kuhlanganise nokubuza okugcwele amagama, imiphumela ephezulu, nengxenye yendlela yokusebenza. I-medipoputensi enjenge-New York Times ne-FiveTThirtyeaight idinga futhi ukuhlola ukuze bahlangabezane nomnyango oyisisekelo wokukhanya.

Izindinganiso Zobuchwepheshe Nokubukeza Kontanga

Abahloli abaningi abasemthethweni basemanxuseni ochwepheshe anjenge-AAPOR noma i-World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). Lezinhlangano zimisa iziqondiso zokuziphatha ezinqabela imikhuba efana nokuphenya. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izifundo nezindawo zokuhlola ngokuvamile zithola izinhlelo zokucwaninga zezindawo (IRB) ezigunyaza ukuqinisekiswa kokuphathwa kwamalungu. Amafemu ezentengiselwano angase angabi nobubonisi obufanayo, kodwa lezo ezinemikhondo emide — njengo-Gallup, U Gov, ne-Ipsos — ngokuzithandela zinikezele ebhodini lokuhlola izakhiwo (IRB) ekuqinisekiseni impazabers.

Indlela Yokufaka Impova Ephothayo

Ukuhlukanisa ukuhlola okuphoqelelwe ekuhloleni okungokomthetho kudinga ukunaka ngokucophelela izimpawu eziningana eziyisixwayiso. Ngezansi kuwuhlu lokucwaninga oluwusizo ongalusebenzisa ukuze uhlole noma ikuphi ukuhlola okutholayo.

“Into Engcono Ukuba Yiqiniso"

Uma ukuhlola kubika umthofu omkhulu ngokungenangqondo kulowo ozobhalisa, noma uthi amaphesenti angu-80 abavoti asekela isikhundla esiyimpikiswano, yiba nokusola. Ukuhlola okungokomthetho akuvamile ukuveza imiphumela eyeqisa kanjalo. Imiphumela eyingozi iyenzeka, kodwa kufanele ihambisane nama - barbatats. Ukuphenya kokucindezela ngokuvamile kweqisa ukusekela noma ukuphikiswa ukuze kubangele umuzwa wokweqisa.

Imibuzo Enzima Noma Eholelayo

Lalela imibuzo eqala ngemisho ethi "Ingabe uyazi ukuthi..." noma "Kubalulekile kuwe ukuthi..." lezizakhiwo zivame ukusebenza njengamahhashi eTrojan ukuze zithole ulwazi lwamanga. Njengesibonelo: "Uyaqaphela yini ukuthi u-X wovota ukuphakamisa intela ka-"" uma indaba ingamanga noma idukisa, ukuvocana kuyinhlawulo ephoqayo.

Izindlela Ezingalawuleki Noma Ezingekho

Uma ukuvota kungasho ubukhulu obuyisampula, ifonethi lephutha, noma inhlangano exhasayo, cishe akuyona inhlolo-volution esemthethweni. Ukuhlola kokuphoqa akuvamile ukuveza lokhu kwaziswa. Ngisho noma kunjalo, hlola umxhasi: ingabe iyifemu yokucwaninga ezimele, umkhankaso wokuhlola, noma iqembu eliphambili elinegama elifana nethi "Citizen for Trust Government"?

Ukuthatha Isikhathi Esifushane Nokugxila Kunye

Izibalo zokuhlola ezigunyaziwe zihlanganisa izihloko eziningi futhi zithathe imizuzu engu-10-20 ukunikeza. Ukuhlola kokuphoqa kuthatha imizuzu engaphansi kwemihlanu futhi kugxile kuphela koyedwa noma kumagazini owodwa. Zingasebenzisa futhi umbuzo owodwa noma emibili, ziphinda umbuzo othwetshuliwe ngendlela ehlukile.

Ukwehluleka Ukuveza Imiphumela

Uma ukuvota okungokomthetho sekuqediwe, ngokuvamile kukhishwa noma okungenani kufakwa enqolobaneni enjenge-Roper Center noma i-iPoll. Ukuhlola kokusunduza akuyikhiphi imiphumela ngoba bekungahloselwe ukuba kulinganiswe noma yini. Uma ungatholi incwadi yemiphumela, lungisa umsebenzi wokuhlola ngokugxeka okukhulu.

Umehluko Phakathi Kokungcolisa Nokuhlola Isigijimi

Kubalulekile ukungadidani ukuphenya ukuhlolwa okuphoqelelwe "ukuhlolwa kwemiyalezo," umkhuba wokucwaninga osemthethweni osetshenziswa yimikhankaso. Ekuhlolweni komyalezo, abahlolwa baboniswa ama-alphard text ambalwa noma amaphuzu akhulumayo futhi babuzwa ukuthi yimuphi oheha kakhulu. Umgomo uwukwenza ukuxhumana kube nokusheshisa, hhayi ukusakaza amanga. Ukuhlola umyalezo kuveza bhabhadane ngezinhloso, kusebenzisa ulimi olungathathi-hlangothi, futhi ngokuvamile kunikeza imiphumela ekusebenziseni imikhankanyo yangaphakathi. Ukuhlola kokuhlola, ngokuphambene, kufihlwa njengezifundo zangempela futhi kusakaza ulwazi oludukisayo.

Indima Yokungcolisa Ezezindaba Nasembusweni Wentando Yeningi

Ukungcoliswa kwezincwadi kufeza umsebenzi obalulekile emiphakathini yentando yeningi: kunikeza umbono wemibono yomphakathi, kubeka izikhulu ezikhethiwe ezinecala, futhi kwazisa abavoti ngesimo sezinhlanga. Nokho, ukwanda kokuphenya ngokuphoqelelwa — ikakhulukazi ngama - rococall, imiyalezo, nemithombo yezokuxhumana yomphakathi — kusongela lowomsebenzi. Lapho abavoti bephelelwa ukuthemba konke ukwaziswa okuphenywayo, yonke isizinda sokucwaninga komphakathi siyawohloka.

Imiphumela "yeBanwagon" ne"Umgodi"

Ukuhlola okusemthethweni kungathonya ukuziphatha kovoti ngemiphumela ye-cyutwagon (abantu basekela obonakala enqoba) kanye nemiphumela engaphansi kwe-ddog (abantu bazwelana nomfundi). Ukuhlola kokucindezela kusebenzisa ngamabomu lokhu kuthambekela okungokwengqondo ngokusungula umthofu onamandla noma ukuthatha ihlazo. Ezinhlangeni eziseduze, ngisho nokusunduza okuncane kungaguqula amavoti ngokwanele ukuze kushintshe umphumela. [5TTTTHRETYLENG lapho ukuhlola okungamangalela kufaka khona izenzakalo eziningi [[FLT]] umkhankaso oshintsha khona imikhankathi yezindaba.

Umthwalo Wemfanelo Wokuthola Izincwadi

Imithombo yezindaba inomthwalo wemfanelo wokuhlola ngokucubungula ngaphambi kokuba ibike. Ngeshwa, ngokujaha izihloko eziphambili ze-clickbait, ezinye izinhlangano zezindaba zicindezela ukuhlola ngaphandle kokuqinisekisa indlela yazo yokuhlola. Umkhuba ongcono kakhulu ukucaphuna kuphela ukuhlola okuhlangabezana nezindinganiso zokubona ngale — ngokwesibonelo, lezo ezilinganiselwa kumanani okuhlolwayo e-FiveThirtyheight, okuqopha amafemu ngokunembile nangokungagwegwesi. Abacosheli kufanele baphawule futhi lapho imboni yeze-athonsi i-Rhoverstor noma i-operator yangaphakathi.

Amacebiso Okuqeda Izintuthu Zangaphakathi

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ungumfundi obhala iphepha, uthisha oklama izifundo zomphakathi, noma umavoti ozama ukuqonda indawo ekhethweyo, lezi ziqondiso ziyokusiza ukuba uhlukanise ukwaziswa okunokwethenjelwa ekuxhaphazeni.

1. Yazi Isigubhu

Funa inhlangano ekhokhela futhi eqhuba lenhlolo - vo. Abaxhasi abasemthethweni bahlanganisa izikhungo zokucwaninga ezingathathi hlangothi, izinhlangano ezinkulu zezindaba, amayunivesithi, namafemu ahlola akudala. Yiba nokungabaza ngezicelo ezigunyazwe umkhankaso wombhalisa, i-PCAC, noma iqembu lezemfundo eziphezulu ezineziphaka ezicacile. Uma umxhasi engaziwa noma esoleka ngokuqanjwa (umz., "Melikas for the thns"), jule.

2. Hlola isampula elichazayo

Ubani okwaxoxwa naye? Abadala, abavoti ababhalisiweyo, noma abavoti? "Kungenzeka ukuthi abavoti" bayindinganiso yegolide kutshengisa izinhlelo zokukhetha, kodwa imibuzo yokuhlola kufanele ikhutshwe. Futhi hlola umthombo wesibonelo: umngcele kanye no-us cellphone ngamaphesenti, futhi uma ama-profayili e-intanethi esetshenziswayo. Ukuhlola okungcono kuhlanganisa izinhlobo eziningi (i-phone, i-inthanethi, i-posi) futhi kusetshenziswa izibonakaliso ezisekelwe kumathuba.

3. Hlola Imibuzo

Uma ikhona, funda yonke imibuzo. Bheka amagama alinganiselayo, amakhetho acacile, kanye nokufakwa kwe "awazi". Qaphela imibuzo eqala ngokuthi "uyazi ukuthi..." noma "Nika lokho..." — lawo amafulegi abomvu. Futhi hlola ukuthi uhlelo lwamagama abazobhapathizwa lungahleleki.

4 Bheka Indlela Esetshenziswa Ngayo

Izindlela eziningi zokuhlola zikhipha inkulumo ehlanganisa izinsuku ze-oda, ubungakanani besampuli, i-oceal yephutha, imininingwane yesisindo, kanye nezindlela zokuxhumana. Uma ikuphi ukwaziswa kulahlekile, qapha. Isiphambano sihlola ngezindinganiso ezivela ku-APAR: sidinga ukuvezwa kwamagama okubuzayo, amasampula, kanye nezinga lokusabela kunoma isiphi isiphetho esihloselwe ukukhululwa komphakathi.

5. Qhathanisa Nezinhlansi Eziningi

Akukho kuhlola okungaqiniseki. Sebenzisa abashayeli abafana ne-FiveThirtyEight, RealcreatePolitics, noma i-Model of the Economist ukuze ubone ukuvumelana kwezibalo eziningi. Uma umuntu ehlola ngokungenangqondo ehlukahlukaniswe isilinganiso, kungase kube yiphutha — noma ukuphenya okuphoqelelwe. Futhi phawula isikhathi: ukuhlola okuthathwe phakathi nomjikelezo wezindaba kungaveza izihloko zalelosonto kunokuba kubonise umzwelo ongaphansi.

6. Hlola Izinga Lokusabela Nokukhuluphala

Izinga lokusabela ekuhlolweni kocingo liye lehla lifinyelela emananini alinganayo. Ukuhlola okugunyaziwe kufaka umbiko wempendulo futhi kuchaza indlela ubandlululo olungelulo olusingathwa ngayo ngokukhuluphala. Uma kungekho zinganakalisi, ukuhlola kungenzeka kusebenzisa isampulo engakholeki engenakulinganiswa ngokuqinisekile. Ukuhlola kolwembu jikelele okuxhomeke kwizisebenzi zokuzithandela ezizikhethile (njengokuthi "chofoza lapha ukuvota" ukuhlola) akungokwesayensi neze.

Sebenzisa Amathuluzi Okulinganisela Izintuthwane

U-5THYREYTING unikeza isilinganiso sokungcola esiqinile esiveza amafemu ngokunembe okungokomlando, ukubonakala, nokungaguquguquki kwendlela yokusebenza. Ngaphambi kokucaphuna noma ikuphi ukuhlola, hlola isilinganiso sako. Umhloli onenombolo ye-"A" ithembeke kakhulu kuneyodwa elinganiswe "C" noma "D". Imishini eminingi yokuhlola iwela ezihlalweni ngenxa yokungadaluli indlela ephelele noma iboneli embhalweni wendlela ehlukahlukene.

8. Qaphela impova ye "Range" noma "Phansi"

Imizamo yokuhlola yangaphakathi ngezikhathi ezithile evuzayo ukuze kuhlolwe imithombo yezindaba. Le mihlolo ingase ibe ngokomthetho — kodwa ngenxa yokuthi ayivunywanga futhi ayibukelwanga ontanga, kufanele iphathwe ngokuqapha. Okufanayo kubizwa ngokuthi "ukuhlola okuvamile" okuqhutshwa kwimithombo yezokuxhumana, okungenanzuzo engokwesayensi.

Isiphetho

Ukuhlola okuphoqelelwe akunangozi — kuyindlela yokusebenzisa kabi ezombangazwe edukisa abavoti, ingcolisa amadumela, futhi ikhubaza ukuthembela ezinqubweni zedemokrasi. Ikhono lokuhlukanisa phakathi kokuhlola okuphoqelelwe nokuhlolwa kwesayensi liyikhono elibalulekile kunoma ubani osebenzisa izindaba zezombangazwe. Ngokufuna amagama angathathi hlangothi, indlela esobala, izibalo ezicatshangelwe ngokungenangqondo, nomxhasi ohloniphekile, ungakugwema ukukhohliswa ukwaziswa okungamanga noma okudukisayo. Othisha, ikakhulukazi, banomthwalo wokufundisa ngendlela eyingozi yokuhlola — hhayi nje ezinkathini zokhetho, kodwa njengomkhuba wokungabaza, izakhamuzi ezilwazi olulwazi. Enkathini yokwaziswa okunemali, umbuzo awukho futhi udinga ukukholelwa ukuthi ukuphenywa nje.