Muitiro wokumwe weAustralia uri pamhatsa sezvo simba renyika yose rinopfuurira kuchinja munzira dzisingaonekwi kubvira pamugumo weHondo Yemashoko. Kumuka kweChina, kugadziridzwa kwesimba reU.S., uye ukoshi hukuru hweIndo. Nharaunda inodzivirira nyika apo inoparira kugadzikana kweruwa. Nyaya ino inonzvera masimba anodzokororazve mhoteredzo dzokunze dzeAustralia uye anoronga miuyo, uye mikana icharondedzera muitiro wayo wokunzewo kunze kwenyika mugumi rinotevera.

Kuchinja Kwetsika Munyika Yose: Vatyairi Vanokosha

Kutanga kweChina

Chinjo yeChina kubva pamuzinda wokugadzira zvinhu kuenda kusimba rehondo yave iri kukura kwematongerwe enyika kwapamugumisiro mukurusa muzana ramakore rechi 21. Uremu hwayo hwezvemari — Beijing ishamwari hurusa yezvokutengeserana yeAustralia, inova inoparira zvinenge 9365 zvezvinhu zvose zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika — inopa simba guru. Panguva imwe cheteyo, chimiro chesimba chikuru cheChina muSouth China Sea, tsoka dzayo dzehondo dzinokura, uye batano dzadzo dzinosimba dzezvematongerwe enyika namarudzi ePacific Island dzinorangarirwa sedenho dzinonanga kumirairo inoteverwa. Canberra zvino anofanira kukwanisa kudzora kuoma kukuru: kufambidzana kwezve kwezvero yemari nomumwe munhu ane zvido zvake zvinobudirira zvinobva muSouth China, uye kutsika kwayo yehondo inobuda mugungwa.

Kudzokera Kune Mitemo Yakanaka yeUnited States

United States inoramba iri mubatanidzwa mukuru wechengeteko weAustralia, wakatsigirwa neANZUS Treaty. Bva chimiro chenyika yose cheWashington chiri kutenderera. Shifts mune zvamatongerwe enyika zvomumba, kuganhurirwa kwemibato yepasi pevhu, uye itiro yakamutsidzirwa pamakwikwi makuru esimba neChina zvakatungamirira kukunangidzirwa, chisaririra chapabumbiro reIndoācus pacificific. AUS pact (Australia, United Kingdom, United States), inoratidzira iyi nhevedzano yezvokugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvenyukireya zvinoshanda nesimba rapasi penyukleti kuAustralia asi inorairawo kuti Australia itore mutoro mukuru nokuda kwedziviriro yayo imene nenharaunda. Chivimbo chaicho cheUS. Chidziviridzo chapamutemo hachisipo chidzo chinodikanwa; Australia inofanira kugovera nokushanda nesimba zvikuru sechisiri chikwani chinobatira chigaro, chisati chiri chipfuro chaichipfuro.

Kukosha Kunowedzera Kwebasa Rebasa

Yaichimbova nzvimbo yapasi inorwisana. Nzvimbo yeAustralia — panyuko dzeIndiya nePacific Ocean zvino inzvimbo yezvokuchengeteka yenyika yose. Inoitawo kuti Canberra ive nechero nzvimbo dzinodzorwa nemhepo, mamiriro ezveupfumi anokura nokukurumidza zvikuru, uye migwagwa yegungwa yakakomba, nzvimbo yacho inzvimbo ichave ine ramangwana renhevedzano yenyika. Kunoitika kuAustralia — panyukirwo yeIndia nePacific Ocean — ive basa romusikirwo. Asi inopawo Canberra kukuvadzwa kukurusa, kungava kurwisana kwehondo pamusoro peTaiwan, kukakavadzana kwehondo dzegungwa, kana kuti tyisidziro dzenguva yetsika dzinogara dziripo seIverâseppion nemhete. Nyika yacho inoraira muitiro wokumwe nharaunda yose iri yogaro.

Nzvimbo Yakanaka yeAustralia Nefariro Dzayo

Kuchengeteka Kwenyika

Australia ikondinendi ine chiverengero chavagari vemo chiduku, miganhu mihombe yegungwa, uye rutsamiro rukuru mumigwagwa yezvokutengeserana iyo inogura South China Sea neIndian Ocean. Nzira yayo yokudzivirira nayo yakatsamira munhau yakacherekedzwa kuti “kuparadzwa kweAustralia” — kudzivirira kondinendi pakudenha kwakananga — asi tyisidziro dzazvino uno dzinowedzera. Cybersecurity, hondo dzezvikwata, uye kukurukurirana kwemibatanidzwa kwakawedzera hondo. 2023 Defecle Statical Review zvakajeka yakanyevera zvakajeka kuti mhoteredzo yacho yakashata, ichidana chivako chakanangidzirwa mumiitiro yakananga nzvimbo. Ikoko kunobatanidza kuisa mari mumibato refu yemanyuko, paICM.6959, uye kusimudzira vazivi vapareji vakabatana muhondo.

Kupindira Mune Zvemari

Hugamba hweAustralia hwakabatanidzwa zvikuru neshambadziro yenyika yose, zvikurukuru neAsia. China inoramba iri mutengi mukuru wesimbi yeAustralian iron, marasha, gasi rinonyunguduka, uye zvinhu zvokurima. Mukati megakava rebhizimisi ra202021, Beijing yakaitirana bhari yeAustralia, waini, marasha, uye marobsters ane zvibvumidzo zvapamutemo, zvichiratidza mutengo wemari wegakava rezvinhu zvinovhiringwa. Canberra yakaita basa rokutsvaka kukwikwidza — kusimbisa batano neIndia, Southern Korea, neSouthern Asia — uye nokuwana zvinhu zvaro zvinokosha zvemichina (chikaro, pasi pano) kuti igadzire zvigove zviwiriranwa. Asi kuchinjwa kwemari kubva panzvimbo dzinogara dziri basa panzvimbo dzapamsika imwe chete.

Kubatana neUnited States (ANZUS, AUKUS)

SAYANI yeANZUSI yave iri faundesheni yemitemo yechengeteko yeAustralia kubvira muna 1951. Inopa mukana wokuwana uchenjeri hweU.S., ruzivo rwekugadzira zvinhu, uye kushanda pamwe kwemauto. AUKUS inodzika midzi ukama ihwohwo, zvikurukuru musimba rengarava dzepasi pegungwa uye unyanzvi hwakakwirira hwakadai sehypersonations, ungwaru hwokugadzira zvinhu, uye kufambidzana kwemaantaum. Kudzoka, Australia yakazvipira kupinza mauto eU. U.S. , yakabatanidza mukana wokuva nerwisano neChina, uye yakakanganisa ukama nevamwe vakuru, zvikurukuru pashure pechiziviso cheAUUS.

Kubatanidzwa Munharaunda: ASEAN, India, Japan, Pacific Islands

Australia inobvuma kuti hapana mubatanidzwa mumwe chete unogona kuvimbisa kuchengeteka kwawo.

  • ASHEAS: Canberra inorangarira Sangano raMarudzi eSoutheast Asia serinokosha nokuda kwokuchengeta nhevedzano yakadzikama, inongobatanidza. Yakawedzera batira pamwe yezvemari kupfurikidza neASTEAN SAYENSA 29: New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AAANZFTA) uye yakaronda kurukurirano dzechengeteko pamutemo weMaritectic, inodzivisa rructic, uye utsotsi hwenyika yose.
  • Indiya: A Comprehectctrate Stative Stativepshin yatangwa muna 2020, yakasimbiswa neAustralia wapidia Economic Cooperation and Trade Active Active (CHARP). Ukama hwacho hunofukidza dziviriro (kuchengeteka kwenguva iri muIndopacific), michina inokasharara, uye ruzivo rwokugadzirwa kwezvinhu. Australia inoona India seshamwari yomuzvarirwo mukuwedzera maketani uye pesvedzero yeChina.
  • yapanyika yeAustralia mumwe weshamwari dzekotsekano dzapedyosa kunze kwechikamu chaMaziso mashanu. Kurovedza kwamativi, kugoverana kwouchenjeri, uye chibvumirano chokupindazve (zvakagadzwa muna 2022) zvinogonesa batira pamwe yehondo huru. Japan ishamwariwo huru yezvemari, zvikurukuru musimba, zvivako, uye ruzivo rwokugadzirwa kwezvinhu.
  • Pacific Islands: Uvakidzani hweAustralia huri mudzvinyiriro inowedzera inobva kukuyamura kweChina nemari. Canberra apindura nokutanga nhano yePacific, kusimudzira betsero yefambiro mberi, gadziriro dzokushanda nesimba, uye mari yokutsigira mamiriro okunze. Kusimbisa batano naPapua New Guinea, Fiji, uye Solomon Islands chinhu chinokosha nemusengwa wetsika.

Nhungamiro Dzomunguva Yemberi Mumutemo Wokumwe weAustralia

Kutarisira Chinetso cheChina: Economichence v.

Hapana chinyorwa chimwe chicharondedzera zvikuru muitiro wokumwe weAustralia kupfuura ukama hwacho neChina. Vagadziri vemiitiro inodzorwa vanotarisana nokusawirirana kukuru: vanopfuurira kubetserwa nezvokutengeserana vachisimbisa kusimba mukurwisana nemitoo inoparira. Kusvika kwazvino uno kwehurumende ndeimwe ye “kuvimbisana kwapakarepo” — kuderedza miganhu yebhizimisi (sokubvisa bhari newaini) vachichengeta mitsetse yakasimba panhau dzechengeteko dzakadai sekodzero dzavanhu, mutemo wapamari, uye mitoo yokugadzirwa kwezvinhu. Uku kunobatanidza kuvaka: kugadzirwa kwemisika yokugadzirwa kwezvinhu inosiiwa kunze kwenyika, kuisa mari muro yezvokugadzira zvinhu (g., purogiramu yezuva rinopisa nokuda kwechidhindo yechishava) uye kutsigira kugadzirwa kwokutanga kwesimba sechiQuadchain. Pachine nguva inodzorwa kushamba kushati kushati kushatiswa nokungwarira kushatiswa kwechinyiswa kwechishati kushati kushatiswa kutetese.

Kusimbisa U.S. Armall Pavaivaka Autonomy Yakagadzirwa

Murangariro wegamuchidzanwa wokuti chengeteko yeAustralia yakanyorwa zvizere neUnited States inowirirana. Nepo mubatanidzwa uchiri unokosha, nyanzvi dzeAustralia dzinoramba dzichitsigira “kuzvitonga kwechinzvimbo chakati kurei, ” mano okuita nenzira yokuzvimirira apo U.S. anochinja kubva paCanberra. Ikoku kunoreva kuisa mari musimba rokuzvidzivirira rapamutemo (zvakadai sengarava dzinofamba mumvura dzeAUKUS, zvombo zvinokandwa zvirefu, uye kuongorora kwechadenga kwakavakirwa pazvo) kuvamba inzwi rehurumende, uye kudzivirira kwakawanda kunopfuura U.S. Australia yakatoratidzira simba rayo rokuzvimirira: yakabatanidza ukama hwechisimba neJapan neIndia, uye yave mutsigiri wesimba nokuda kwomutemo wamarudzi ose nokuda kweUnited States, uye yave isingaregiwi nharidzano kubatana kwakaenzana neUnited States. — Australia inotoodwo inotonga nesimba.

Kusimbisa Ushamwari Hwomunharaunda

Kubudirira kwomunguva yemberi kweAustralia kuchasarudzwa nesimba rayo nevavakidzani. Mhiri kweQuad neASEAN, Canberra ari kutanga kuvimbisana nePacific Islands mu202333 Pacific Australia Strategy, iyo inoita kuti ipedze kupfuudzirazve betsero nokuwedzera basa. Ukama naPapua New Guinea huri kukwidziridzwa kuukama hwechengeteko, nezvirongwa zvengarava paChitsuwa cheManus uye kushandira pamwe chete mugungwa. Kune imwe nyika, Australia iri kushanda neIndonesia pabvumirano itsva yokudzivirira uye naTimorâceste papfuma nechengeteko. Mubatanidzwa mumwe nomumwe unobatira chinangwa: kubudisa kumwe kuwanikwa kwezve zvoupfumi, vamwe vanhu vanokwanisa kuwana zvinhu, uye kubetsera kuvaka zvivako zvose zvinoderedza kushandira simba rimwe nerimwe.

Kutaura Nezvokuchengeteka Zvisiri Zvekare

Kutyisidzira kwehondo kwamagamuchidzanwa hakusati kuri itiro hanya bedzi. chinjo yemamiriro okunze iri kuvandudza mhoteredzo yakakosha: mwero yegungwa iri kuwedzera inotyisidzira nyika dziri muPacific; zvinoitika zvemamiriro okunze zvakakomba zvinodzongonyedza kugovera macheni; uye kutama kungagona kuva manyuko ekusagadzikana kwenharaunda. Australia yakavimbisa kuva simba rinomutsidzirwa, kudzora zuva rayo guru nemhepo kuti zvibudise hydrogen nemuchetura unonakisa. 2023 Foreign Procy White Peper yakazivisa kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze enzvimbo yepasi pevhu se “kudengenyeka kwenyika kweAsia, uye Hurumende yePacific yakaita kuti kudzokororererwa kwedzoro dzemisi yemhepo dzayo. Kutyoka, kurwisana kwemibato yezveridzi, uye mhepo inoshatsakatikamura kunoitwawo sezvinetso zvikuru zvorudzi, inoda kubatira pamwe chete neyakati nepakati penyika yehurumende yehurumende yavose.

Zvinetso Nemikana Zviri Mberi

Banza 1: Kuva Mutungamiriri Wesimba Rapakati

Australia inowanzorondedzerwa sesimba rapakati — nyika isingagoni kudzora zviitiko asi inogona kuzviumba kupfurikidza nokugadzira zvinhu uye kuvaka kwemubatanidzwa wemasangano. Mhatsa yazvino uno inopa mukana usingawanzowaniki wokutungamirira nomuenzaniso: kusunda nokuda kwokuchinjwa kwamasangano amarudzi ose akadai seWorld Trade Organization, kutsigira mirau yakavakirwa muIndopécial, uye kushandisa inzwi rayo muG20, APEC, uye United Nations. Kuiswa kweCanberra mari mukubudirira mubetsero yokubudirira (kubatanidza purogiramu yeInfragradactives) uye kudisa kwayo kuidza kuipira kubatira dzvinyiriro yakakodzera pakati pamarudzi maduku. Kana ichigona kuchengeta kuwirirana, kusava nemitemo yemitemo — uyewo kusarwisana kwechibvumirano kana kuti kushandirana — Australia inogona kuva mutezoteve wemari yokumwe yomunyika dzazvinobudirira yepakati yehurumende dzazvinomwe (Z $16).

Denho 1: Vatsigiri Vezvamatongerwe Enyika Vomumusha

Gadziriro yokumwe muAustralia yakafarikanya tsigiro yenhau yebipartisan, asi bvumirano iyoyo iri kurwisana. Nharo pamusoro pekuchinja kwesimba, kubatwa kweindasitiri yezvokudzivirira mudzimba, uye kusvika kuChina kwave kuchiwedzera. Chinjo yehurumende ingagona kutungamirira kukuchinja kwechimbichimbi mumiitiro, kuderedza kuvimbwa kunobva mukupfuurira. Kuvaka zano renyika renguva refu kunoda kurukurirano inotsiga pakati pehurumende, chishoro, maindasitiritiri, uye nzanga yavagari vemo — uye kuzvipira kudzivirira muitiro wokumwe kuvambira panhambo pfupi ye76ternator orgom. Kuumbwa kweRecurity yeNational Security neGeneral Council Compligianism mukati me Servity neCamplication iri nhes iri nhanho inhano iri nhano mugwara yorudyi, asi basa rakawanda kusimbisa kuti mamiriro ari kunze kwenyika yeAustralia ivevako.

Mukana 2: Kurambana Kwebhizimisi

COVID 16) Denda renyika uye gakava rezvokutengeserana neChina zvakakurumidzisa nhamburiko dzokuderedza upfumi hweAustralia pamisika imwe. Hurumende yakasaina kana kuti kuvandudza maharabhuro matsva eUnited Kingdom, India, uye European Union, uye iri kuronda zvibvumirano zvitsva nePacific Alliance neGulf Cooperation Council. Mazano okuvandudza mari anowedzerawo mabasa (mari, zvokushanyira nzvimbo dzemari) uye kutengeserana kwemitengo. Kana Australia ichigona kubudirira, ingagona kuva muzinda wesimba rinopfuudzwa kutengesa zvinhu zviri nani (hydrogen, carbon condro) uye kugadzirwa kwemichina yakakomba, kugovera kuchinja kwenyika kuva nemubato mukuru. Mukana wacho mukuru, asi unoda kutengwa nemari mumitengo, unyanzvi, unyanzvi, uye kufambidzana muMabvazuva eAsia, zvikurukuru kunzvimbo dzinotarisirwa kukura zvikuru mumakumi amakore anouya.

Dambudziko 2: Kunetseka Nezvakaoma muUnited States

Kukwikwidzana kuri kuwedzera pakati peUnited States neChina idenho hurusa yegadziriro yokumwe yeAustralia. Masimba ose ari maviri anotarisira nyika kusarudza mativi, asi fariro dzeAustralia dzinobatirwa nokugarisana kwakatsiga, kunopesana panzvimbo perwisano chaiyo. Canberra anofanira kufamba nenzira yakamanikana: achitsigira mubatanidzwa weU. asingaonwa kuva mukwikwikwidzani weBeijing, uye kupinda muChina mune zvemari pasina kuderedza gadziriro dzechengeteko. Iyi njodzi yokusachengeteka kana kuti kukanganisa zvinhu. Kudaidzikana uku kwakaoma, zvikurukuru kana kusakwirirana pamusoro peTaiwan. Australia yakajekesa kuti chinjo ipi neipi yechinjo yechipo cheTaiwan kupfurikidza nesimba ichava nhau yenhau huru, asi inochengetawo “muitiro mumwe weChina” uye kukurudzira kurukurirano ine rugare. Kuzviisa mungozi yokusakafanira kana kuti kushatikaitwe netsaona yeAustralia kudikaka kudika.

mhedziso

Gadziriro dzokunze dzeAustralia dziri kupinda munhambo yechinjo huru. Zvikariro zvapakuvamba zvepashure penguva yehondo inodzorwa — nhevedzano yenyika yose ine rugare, kuparadzana kweUnited States, nhevedzano yezvemari nechengeteko — zvakapera. Munzvimbo yazvo mune mvura, mhoteredzo yamakwikwikwi umo Canberra anofanira kudzikamisa zvinhu zvinokwikwikwidzana: kusimbisa kuwirirana neChina nepo achirwisana nokuoma kwayo; achisimbisa U.S. nepo achiumba gadziriro yezve yezvemari apo achichinjira kunyika umo nhevedzano iyoyo iri pasi pedzvinyiriro. Rubudiriro ruchatsamira papfungwa yakajeka yenyika, chido chokushandisa zvose zviri zviviri zvehondo namano okukurukurirana, uye mano okuumba nayo zvinowirirana zvinowirirana. Masangano anobetsera, uye anobetsera upfumi, uye anoitira mamiriro ezvinhu adzoneidzo kupfurikidza nokudzokororo.

Nokuda kwokuravazve, bvunza [[[FLT: 0] Lowy Institute, [[[FT:2] Dhipatimendi reAustralian reMitunhu yokunze neTsvaka], uye Sategic Policy Institute.