Kuwo onke amajelo okhetho, abavoti baxinzelelwa ngophando, iminxeba, kunye neencwadi zemibuzo ze-intanethi ezithi zifuna uluvo lukawonke-wonke. Ezinye zezi zixhobo zophando ezenziwe ngokungqongqo ezinika ingqiqo eluncedo kwizinto ezikhethwa ngabavoti. Abanye bacetywe ngabom ukurhoxisa abo bavoti — iqhinga elaziwa ngokuba kukunyanzela. Umahluko unokuba luxinzele, kodwa imiphumo yokungathobeli omnye omnye omnye ibalulekile. Ukuphosa ikukuthoba intelel'intelo kwiinkqubo zedemokhrasi, ukuphelisa iintsokothe, kwane neziphumo zokhetho olutsha. Eli nqaku lichaza indlela yokuvuma ukunyanzela uphatho, isizathu sokuba uthotho olufanelekileyo lwemilinganiselo yenzululwazi, nendlela ubani — kubafundi abanolwazi — ukuvavanisa ngokuphosa ulwazi lwabo.

Yintoni Ukruthakruthwano Lokurhwaphiliza?

Uhlolisiso olunyanzelisayo luluhlobo lophando olulungiselelwe ukungaqokeleli ugcino-lwazi lokwenene kodwa ukuphembelela okanye uku-"phulula" ukuphendula kuluvo oluthile okanye injongo yokuvota. Eli gama laqanjwa ngeminyaka yee-1970, kodwa umkhwa unemvelaphi enzulu kwiphulo lezobupolitika. Ngokungafaniyo nocalulo olusemthethweni, olusebenzisa ulwimi olungathathi cala kunye neesampula eziqhelekileyo ukulinganisa uluvo, lunyanzelela uvavanyo luxhomekeke kwimibuzo elayiliweyo, iintelekelelo ezingaqinisekiswanga, nezibhexwa ngokweemvakalelo.

Uphando olusemthethweni, lokunyanzelisa lukwindawo ebanzi. E-United States, ngokuqhelekileyo azilawulwa phantsi kwemithetho yezemali yephulo ngaphandle kokuba zimela okanye zichasa lowo ubhalisweyo. Noko ke, amaphondo amaninzi aneemfuno zokutyhila. IKhomishini yoNxibelelwano loMbutho (FCC) ikwathathe imbambano ne-protococal esekelwe kwimiba enyanzelisa ukufumanisa ukuba intlangano exhasayo. Phezu kwako nje oku, ukunyanzela ukuba uphando luhlale luyinto eqhelekileyo — kwaye ingxwabangxwabangxwaba, ingakumbi ngexesha le-Prodentiasssssssssssssssssssss azama ukonakalisa intlalo phantsi kophando olungakhethi calal.

Imizekelo Engokwembali Yokungcoliswa Kweentsonkothe

Omnye weyona misebenzi yophando edumileyo yenziwa ngexesha eliphambili lowama 2000 uMzantsi weRiphabhuliki yaseMzantsi Carolina. Abafowuni abangaziwayo babuza abavoti: "Ngaba ubunokuvotela uJohn McCaine ukuba uyazi ukuba ungumntwana omnyama?" Lo mbuzo wawububuxoki ngokupheleleyo — intombi kaMcCain ehlawulwa nguBangladesh yayilixhoba lobucukubhedengu bobuhlanga. Uhlolo lwalungenamdla ekuqokeleleni ugcino-lwazi; lwayilwa ukucinezela inkxaso ka-Mc Cain phakathi kovotiwe.

Enye imeko edumileyo yayiquka "impembelelo yeBradley" — into ebizwa ngokuba nguMos Angeles sisigqeba uTom Bradley, owaphulukana nogqatso lwerhuluneli yaseKhalifoniya yowe1982 nangona yayikhokela kuphando lwangaphambi konyulo. Nangona ingekuko ukunyanzeleka uphengululo ngokwalo, isiganeko sabangela uphando oluthi shwaka indlela isimo sengqondo sobuhlanga esifihlakeleyo esinokugqwetha ngayo uphazamiso. Uphando olufihlakeleyo lusebenzisa uqhathelo olufihlakeleyo ngokufaka ngabomgaqo ulwazi olububuxoki okanye olubaxa izinto, lukhulisa ikhethe elikhoyo kunokuba lulinganisele iimbono ezikhoyo.

Ubugcisa Obusetyenziswayo Ekutyhalani

Uphando olucinezelayo lusebenzisa ubuchule obuninzi obahlukeneyo obubenza bahluke kuhlolisiso olusemthethweni:

  • [[ULT:0] Ulwazi lobuxoki: Banikela iintengiso ezingaqinisekiswanga okanye ezicetyiweyo malunga nomvo okanye umba, emva koko balinganise intsabelo yophendulayo.
  • [[Ulwimi olujijekileyo:0] Ulwimi olujijekileyo: amagama afana "ne-corrupt," "radical," "ibhetral," okanye "imfihlo" lusetyenziswa ukuvuselela impendulo ekhawulezileyo yemvakalelo.
  • IiNgxelo eziNgagqibekanga: Imibuzo eqala nge "Ungamxhasa na umntu oza kubhaliswa ngetyala lobuqhetseba? ” Kwanaxa kungekho kuqiniseka okunjalo.
  • [[UMTL:0] Ukhetho oluphambili: Abavumi bayacelwa ukuba bakhethe phakathi kophawu oluchaphazelekileyo olucacileyo nolungacacanga okanye olulungileyo, olungenalwalathiso.
  • Ixesha lobugqi: Uvolo lweLegitimate ludla ngokuthatha imizuzu eli-10-20; uthotho lungathatha imizuzu enye okanye emibini, lujoliswe ngokupheleleyo kwinkupho enye.

Iimpawu Zomgqumo Ofanelekileyo

Uphando lomthetho luyindlela elungelelanisiweyo, yenzululwazi yokulinganisa uluvo lukawonke-wonke. Imibutho enika ucweyo esemthethweni ilandela imilinganiselo eqinisekisiweyo eqinisekisa ukuba ugcino-lwazi luyathenjwa, alunaziphene, kwaye lungummeli. Le milinganiselo idityaniswe ngamaqumrhu angoochwepheshe njenge Imanyano yeMelika ye-Phionnionness Public Research (APOR).

I-Sampling engenamkhethe noMmeli

Kwintliziyo yophando olusemthethweni lungumzekelo nje oqhelekileyo. Uphando oluqhutywa kakuhle olukhetha abaphendula ngendlela enika ilungu ngalinye lexhoba amathuba alinganayo (okanye aziwayo) okuqukwa. Oku kufunyanwa ngokungacwangciswanga komvo wokucofa umnxeba wovavanyo lwefowuni, okanye imizekelo esekelwe kwidilesi yeposi kunye nohlolo. I-Online-in izicwangciso eziqhelekileyo kodwa zifuna ubunzima obuntsonkothileyo bobucutshe ukulungisa imfihlo.

Isampuli yobungakanani iqwalaselwa ngumyinge onqwenelekayo wolungiso. Kuhlolisiso lwesizwe lwe 1000 enokuba ngabavoti, umda wempazamo yi 763 yeencopho zomlinganiselo wesiqinisekiso wama 95%. Uphando lomthetho lusoloko luxela zombini ubungakanani bokulinganisa kunye nomda wempazamo. Zikwachaza nabemi abalinganisiweyo (umz., "Ookreti," "ovota ababhaliswe," ngokunjalo "Kovota"" kunye nemihla yebala.

Uyilo lombuzo

Uphando olusemthethweni luyayiphepha imibuzo ekhokelela, elayishwe, okanye ephindwa kabini. Umbuzo ocetyiweyo mfutshane, wobundilele, kwaye usebenzisa amagama angaguqukiyo. Umzekelo: "Ukuba unyulo lukamongameli lubanjelwe namhlanje, ngaba ubungavota i-Candidate A okanye i-Candidate B? ngokuphikisana nombuzo wophando onyanzelisayo: "Yiba nehlazo lobuqhophololo, ungasanokucinga ngokuvota ngecawa ngesixhobo sokukhetha A?? Imilinganiselo yangaphambili; imigudu yamva yokubhenela ityala.

Umyalelo wombuzo ukwangumbandela. Uphando olungacwangciswanga. Lungacwangciswanga ngendlela yokukhetha iimpendulo ezinokuphetshwa ukunqanda ukuphinda-phinda okanye iziphumo ze-header. Luquka "awazi" kunye "okanye" ukhetho, luvumela abaphengululi ukuba bakhethe ngaphandle kweziphumo ezicalucalucalulo. Uphando olutsalelayo lusoloko lushiya ezinketho, lunyanzelisa ukhetho oludichotomaus.

Ukujonga ngaphaya komgaqo-nkqubo

Uphando olusemthethweni lupapasha iinkcukacha ezineenkcukacha malunga nendlela yalo yophando. Oku kubandakanya indlela yokuhlola, ubungakanani, imilinganiselo yemposiso, imigaqo yobunzima, kunye nombutho oxhasayo. IZiko lophando lwePewuthi [[FLT: 1], umzekelo, linika uxwebhu oluninzi kuhlolo ngalunye, kuquka uphando olupheleleyo, iziphumo zombuzo, imigca ephezulu, kunye necandelo lendlela yokusebenza. Izixhobo zophakamiso ezifana neThe New York Times ne FiveTThirtyheight zifuna ukuba bathelekise uphando ukuze badibanise iimbulwana ezingundoqo.

Imilinganiselo Yoogcisa Nempinda Yoontanga

Abaphandi abaninzi abasemthethweni bakwiinkqubo zophando ezisemthethweni ezifana ne-AAPOR okanye i-World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). Le mibutho inyanzelisa imigaqo yokuziphatha ekwalelayo uqheliselo olufana nokunyanzela ukuphengululwa. Ngaphezu koko, imfundo kunye nokungabikho kombutho wophando isoloko ifumana ibhunga lequmrhu (IRB) elivunywayo ukuqinisekisa ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba abasebenzi abafanelekileyo. Iinkampani zokuqhatha ngezoshishino zisenokungabi nako ukuvelela okufanayo, kodwa ezo zineerekhodi ende — njengoGallup, uYou Gov, kunye neIpsos — zithobela ngokuzithandela kwi-markmarks.

Indlela Yokufaka Umonakalo Ongubhudlayo

Umahluko wophando olunyanzelekileyo olufanelekileyo lufuna ingqalelo enonophelayo kwimiqondiso emininzi yezilumkiso. Ngeli ngezantsi luluhlu olusebenzayo onokusebenzisa ukuvavanya naluphi na uhlolisiso oludibana nalo.

Uvavanyo olulungileyo

Ukuba uphando lunikela ingxelo ngenkokhelo enkulu ngokungenalusini kumvoti, okanye luthi ama-80% abavoti axhasa isikhundla sokuphikisana, makhe akrokrele. Uphando olusemthethweni lungafane luvelise iziphumo ezigqithisileyo ezinjalo. Kodwa kufuneka lukhatshwe ngamabhakada. Uhlolisiso oluninzi lusoloko lubalula ukuxhasa okanye ukuchasa ukuphembelela okungeyo.

Imibuzo Enzima Okanye Ephambili

Phulaphula imibuzo eqala ngamabinzana afana "Ngaba uyaqonda ukuba..." okanye "Ibalulekile kuwe ukuba..." olu lwakhiwo lusoloko lusebenza njenge Trojan mahashe ukufumana ulwazi lobuxoki. Umzekelo: "Uyayazi ukuba u-X ovotelweyo ukunyusa irhafu kudidi oluphakathi izihlandlo ezithathu? Ukuba isiseko sixoki okanye siyalahlekisa, uthotho lukhuphoza utho.

Uphando okanye indlela elahlekileyo

Ukuba uvo-volo aluchazi ubungakanani bomzekelo, umda wempazamo, okanye umbutho oxhasayo, ngokuqinisekileyo ayiyondlela yokuvota esemthethweni. Uvolo olucinezelayo alufane luyityhile le nkcazelo. Nokuba kunjalo, khangela umxhasi: ngaba yifeme yophando oluzimeleyo, iphulo loququzelelo, okanye iqela eliphambili elinegama elifana ne "Kitzen for Trulety"?

Ixesha elifutshane kunye nojoliso olunye

Uphando lomthetho olumalunga nemibandela emininzi luze luthathe imizuzu eli-10-20 ukunikezela. Uhlolo lokurhuqa ludla ngokuthatha imizuzu engaphantsi kwemihlanu kwaye lujolise kuphela kwisivotelwa esinye okanye kwinkupho enye. Lungasebenzisa umbuzo omnye okanye emibini, luphinda umbuzo omnye othwele umthwalo ngohlobo olufanayo.

Ukusilela Ukuvelisa Imiphumo

Xa uphando olusemthethweni lugqityiwe, ludla ngokupapashwa okanye lugcinwe kwindawo egcina izinto ezinjengeRoper Center okanye i-iPoll. Uphando oluphengululayo aluze lukhuphe iziphumo kuba lwalungacetywanga ukuba lulinganise nantoni na. Ukuba awufumani na impapasho yeziphumo, yiphathe ngokuthandabuza okukhulu.

Umahluko Phakathi Kokwenza Izinto Zingcole Nokuvavanya Isigidimi

Kubalulekile ukungadibanisi uphando lokunyanzelisa uvavanyo olunyanzelekileyo "uvavanyo lomyalezo," uqheliso lophando olusemthethweni olusetyenziswa ngamaphulo. Kuvavanyo lomyalezo, abaphendulayo baboniswa amanqaku amaninzi anokubhalwa okanye anokuthethwa kwaye babuzwa ukuba yeyiphi eyona nto inamandla. Injongo kukulungisa unxibelelwano, hayi ukusasaza ubuxoki. Ukuvavanya umyalezo kukhanya gcaba olucacileyo ngenjongo, kusebenzisa ulwimi olungathathi cala, kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo kunika iziphumo zokusetyenziswa kwephulo langaphakathi. Uhlolo lompulatho, ngokwahlukileyo, lufihlwayelwe njengoluphando lokwenene kwaye lusasaze ulwazi olulahlekisayo.

Indima Yokungcolisa Amajelo Oosomashishini Namagunya Olawulo - melo

Ukurhoxisa kusebenza umsebenzi obalulekileyo kuluntu olulawulwa ngedemokhrasi: kunika umfanekiso wembono kawonke-wonke, kubeka amagosa anyuliweyo, kwaye kwazisa abavoti ngemeko yeentlanga. Noko ke, ukwanda kokunyanzelisa uphando — ingakumbi nge-propocalls, imiyalezo, kunye namajelo eendaba entlalo — kusongela loo msebenzi. Xa abavoti bephelelwa yintembelo kuyo yonke inkcazelo ephandayo, yonke indalo yophando lwaselubala ijongelwa phantsi.

I-"Bandwagon" kunye "Neziphumo ze-Ededog"

Uphando lwendlela yokuvota lungaphembelela ukuziphatha kovoti ngeziphumo zomvoti (abantu baxhasa obonakala ephumelele) kunye neziphumo ezingaphantsi komkhombandlela (abantu bavumelana nomntu oza kungena). Uphando lokurhuqa lusebenzisa ngabom olu tyekelo lwengqondo ngokuyila isikhokelo esilawulayo okanye ihlazo elihambisayo. Kwiqela elikufuphi, kwanerhintyelana elincinci lingaguqula ivoti eyaneleyo ukuguqula iziphumo. [[FLT: 0]

Uxanduva Lobuncwadi

Ubuchule bokuvavanya iziphumo zosasazo lujonge uphando phambi kokuba luxelwe. Ngelishwa, ngokungxamiseka kwentloko-ndaba yokucofa, eminye imibutho yokhuphiswano yokhuphiswano ityhalela uphando ngaphandle kokuqinisekisa indlela esetyenziswa ngayo. Uqheliselo olungcono kukukhankanya kuphela uphando oluhlangabezana nemigangatho yokubonisa ukukhanya — umzekelo, olo lubalelwa kumanani ophando lwe-FiveThirtyheight, olufaka iifektha kwiminali ezichaneyo nezibonisa ukukhanya. Abachongi kufuneka baphawule xa uphando luqhutywa yifementi ye-RCFGB okanye umba wangaphakathi.

Amacebiso Okucima Iintsholongwane

Enoba ungumfundi obhala iphepha, umfundisi - ntsapho oyila isifundo sezentlalo, okanye umvoti ozama ukuyiqonda kakuhle indawo ekukodwa, le migaqo iya kukunceda wahlule inkcazelo onokuyithemba ekusebenziseni kakubi.

1. Yazi Isigulo

Khangela umbutho ohlawulela kwaye oqhuba uphando. Abaxhasi abagunyaziswayo baquka amaziko ophando angathathi-nxaxheba, imibutho emikhulu yendaba, iiyunivesithi, kunye neefektha zophando ezikudala zimisiwe. Yiba namathandabuzo kwimibutho yophando egunyaziswe liphulo lobhaptizo, i-PCAC, okanye iqela le-autococial edwe ngezixhobo ezicacileyo. Ukuba umxhasi akasaziwa okanye ubizwa ngokukrokrelekrelekileyo (umz., "Melikas for the thment"), wemba nzulu.

2. Jonga iSampuli

Ngubani oye wadliwan ’ indlebe? Abantu abadala, abavoti ababhalisiweyo, okanye abavoti? "Kunjalo abavoti" ngumgangatho wegolide kunyulo, kodwa imibuzo yokubonisa kufuneka ityhilwe. Kwakhona khangela umthombo ongumzekelo: ilayini yelizwe ephikisana neseli-phone, kunye nokuba iipesenti ze-intanethi zisetyenzisiwe. Uhlolisiso olungcono ludibanisa iintlobo ezininzi (i-foni, i-intanethi, i-imeyili) kwaye lusebenzisa imizekelo esekelwe kunokwenzeka.

3. Hlola iPhondo leMibuzo

Ukuba ikhona, funda yonke iposi. Jonga uluvo olulungeleleneyo, ukhetho olucacileyo, kunye nokufakwa kwe "Azi". Lumka kwimibuzo eqala nge "Ngaba uyayiqonda into..." okanye "Nika loo..." — leyo yiflegi ebomvu. Kwakhona khangela ukuba udweliso lwamagama abo baza kubhaptizwa lungakhethwanga ngendlela engaqhelekanga.

4. Jonga indlela yobuchule

Uphando oluninzi lwendlela yophando oludumileyo lupapasha ingxelo equka imihla, umlinganiselo, umda wempazamo, iinkcukacha zobunzima, kunye neendlela zoqhagamshelwano. Ukuba naluphi na olu lwazi lulahlekile, lulumkile. Umnqamlezo ukhangelwa ngemigangatho evela kwi AAPOR: zifuna ukutyhilwa komxholo wemibuzo, iisayizi zokulinganisa, kunye nexabiso lokuphendula naluphi na uvavanyo olucetyiweyo olucetyelwe ukukhululwa koluntu.

5. Thelekisa Notyekelo Oluninzi

Akukho kuvota kunye okuqinisekileyo. Sebenzisa abachongi abafana ne-FiveThirtyheight, imodeli yonyulo eChecreatePolitics, okanye imodeli yonyulo lwe-The Economist ukubona ukuvumelana kophando oluninzi. Ukuba umntu uphanda ngokuphandle usuka kumlinganiselo, usenokuba nempazamo — okanye uphando olunyanzelwayo. Kwakhona phawula ixesha: uphando oluthathiweyo ngexesha lonyaka lungabonisa loo mixholo yeveki kunokuba lubonise imvakalelo ephantsi.

6. Hlola Isantya Sempendulo Nobunzima

Amaqondo okuphendula kuphando lwemfonomfono athotshiswe kwimivo enye. Uphando lwengxelo yengxelo yomnxeba luye lwehla lwaya kutsho kumaqondo okuphendula kwaye luchaza indlela olungaphathwa ngayo ucalulo olungelulo ngobunzima. Ukuba akukho mlinganiselo wokuphendula okhankanywe, uvo lusenokuba lusebenzisa isampuli engeyonto engenakuthenjwa engenakuqiniswa nobunzima. Uphando lwangaphakathi oluxhomekeke kumavoti ozikhethileyo (njengokuba "clifa apha ukuvota") aluyiyo nakancinane.

7. Sebenzisa izicwangciso zokuthelekisa

Umlinganiselo wobuqhophololo onzima unika umlinganiselo ongqongqo owenziwe kwifekta ngokuchana kwembali, ukubonakala, kunye nendlela esetyenziswayo. Phambi kokucaphula naluphi uvo, khangela umlinganiselo wayo. Umvoteli one "A" uthembeke kakhulu kunomnye olinganisiweyo "C" okanye "D. Uninzi lwemivo egoqo ehambayo ye-Fractics luwela kumgangatho osezantsi kuba lungabhexi indlela epheleleyo yokuhlola okanye irekhodi yemikhwa egqwetha.

8. Lumka kuTshaba lweRogen" okanye "Impuku-mpuku"

Iphulo lokuhlola okuvuzayo kwangaphakathi ukubumba ijelo leendaba. Olu hlolisiso lungagunyaziswa — kodwa ngenxa yokuba lungenakubonwa yaye lungajongwa njengoontanga, kufuneka luchaswe ngobulumko. Oku kusebenza ngokufanayo kwimiba ebizwa ngokuba yi "uphando lwangaphakathi" eqhutywa kumajelo eendaba asekuhlaleni, angenaxabiso lenzululwazi.

Isiphelo

Uphando oluphengululwayo aluyongozi — luluhlobo lokusebenzisa kakubi kwezobupolitika okungacacileyo, okungcolisayo, nokuphelisa ukuthemba kwiinkqubo zedemokhrasi. Ubuchule bokwahlula phakathi kophando olunyanzelisayo kunye nophando oluqhutywa ngokwenzululwazi bububuchule obubalulekileyo kuye nabani na osebenzisa iindaba zezobupolitika. Ngokukhangela amagama angekho mdla wobundilili, indlela ecacileyo, uphando oluzenzekelayo, kunye nomxhasi ohloniphekileyo, unokukuphepha ukuphenjelelwa yinkcazelo yobuxoki okanye elahlekisayo. Ngokukodwa, ufanele ufundiswe ngendlela erhabazisayo — hayi nje kuphela kumaxesha onyulo, kodwa njengomkhwa wokuthandabuza, okwaziyo ukugqithisela ulwazi, umbuzo awusathethi oko ukuvota, kodwa enoba oko kuthethwa kukukhohlisa kufanelekile ukukholelwa.