Ukwazisa: Ukuqonda Ukulungelelana Kwamandla

Ulungelelwano lwamandla luyenye yezona ngcamango zihlala zihleli kulwalamano lwezizwe ngezizwe kunye nengcamango yezobupolitika. Emongweni wayo, ichaza ulwabelo lwamandla phakathi kwelizwe okanye abadlali abathintela nayiphi na into ekhoyo ekuphumezeni i-hegemony kwaye ilawule abanye. Isifaniso somlinganiselo — apho ubunzima butshintshayo ukuze bugcine ulungelelaniso — sithatha intsingiselo yalo mgaqo. Kwiinkulungwane, abenzi bemithetho, abaphengululi, nababhali-majoni baye baxhomekeke kulungelelwano lwamandla ukuchaza izivumelwano, iimfazwe, kunye nokuzinza kwenkqubo yezizwe ngezizwe ngezizwe. Ukuqonda le ngcamango kubalulekile kubafundi nabafundisi abafuna ukuqonda intsingiselo yezobupolitika yomhlaba wonke, ukusuka ekungquzuleni kwezixhobo ezinkulu ukuya kwiimfazwe zemimandla.

Ulungelelwano lwamandla asingomthetho osisigxina kodwa sisakhiwo esithambileyo esiguqukayo neenguqu kubugcisa, uqoqosho, kunye nezithethe. Sisebenza zombini njengenkcazelo yendlela amatyala aziphatha ngayo kwaye njengemvume yendlela afanele asetyenziswe ngayo [[[FLT: 0] [[FLT]] ukuziphethe ukugcina uxolo. Ngokuhlola iingcambu zayo zembali, iingcambu ezisekelwe kwintelekelelo, kunye neenkqubo zangoku, singawaqonda ngcono amandla abumba ngayo ihlabathi namhlanje.

Imbali: Ukusuka EGrisi Yamandulo Ukuya KwiMfazwe Yomlomo

Iziganeko Zokuqala Ekuchaseni Imilinganiselo

Ingcamango yokulinganisela amandla ngaphambi kokuba kufikelelwe inkqubo yelizwe langoku. Kudala, iGrisi, isixeko se-Athene, iSparta, kunye neThebes ngokuphindaphindiweyo zazenza zaza zaqhekeza izinxulumani zokukhusela nawuphi na umlo ophambili wokuphumelela amanye. Ngokufanayo, eIndiya yamandulo, iPycendies Kalya wabhala kwi [FLT:] iSiphenucian War [[[[FLT:]]1] imicimbi yembali yembali yesixeko se-Sparta nezixhobo zayo ezidityanisweyo ngokunyuka komkhosi we-Athenet — imeko engundoqo yendlela yokuziphatha elungeleleneyo. Ngokunjalo, eIndiya yamandulo, iKatolika ebhalwe kummelwane wobulali, ngummelwane wobulali.

Uxolo LwaseWestphalia Nokuvela KwamaMerika Olongamo

Ingcamango yanamhlanje yokulungelelana kolawulo eyachazwa emva koxolo lwaseWestphalia ngo1648, eyaphelisa imfazwe yeminyaka engamashumi amathathu yaza yamisela umgaqo wolawulo lukarhulumente. Abalawuli baseYurophu baqonda ukuba akukho gunya linye — nokuba nguHabsburgs, eFransi, okanye uBukhosi obuNgcwele baseRoma — elimele lilawule elo lizwekazi. Iinkulungwane ezalandelayo zaphinda zazama ukulondoloza intsebenziswano: iGrand Alliance ngokuchasene noLouis XIV, iBhunga laseVienna ngo1815, kunye neConcert of Europe eyalandela. La malungiselelo abonisa ukuba uzinzolo lufuna ukudityaniswa komkhosi nommandla olinganayo.

Ukusuka Kulawulo Ukuya Kwiimfazwe Zehlabathi

Inkulungwane ye-19 yakubona ukunyuka kwezizwe kunye nokwanda kobukhosi bamathanga, okwabangela umahluko. Inkqubo yezivumelwano ka-Otto von Bismarck eYurophu yafuna ukukhulula iFransi nokugcina uxolo, kodwa ekugqibeleni yahlulwa. Ukuwohloka kolawulo lwamandla kwafak ’ isandla ekuqhambukeni kwemfazwe yehlabathi I. Njengoko umbhali-mbali Paul Kennedy waphikisayo, iinkqubo eziqinileyo kunye nezixhobo zaguqula ungquzulwano lwasekuhlaleni lwaba yintlekele yomhlaba wonke. Emva kwemfazwe, uManyano lwezizwe luzama ukuthatha indawo yolungelelwaniso lwezobupolitika ngeqela, kodwa lwasilela ekuthinteleni ukunyuka kwemfazwe yamaNazi eJamani. Imfazwe yehlabathi II yaqinisekisa ukuba xa ulungelelwano luphazamiseka ngamandla okuhlaziya, iziphumo zomonakalo.

IMfazwe Yomlomo: Ukulungelelana Kwebipolar

IXesha leMfazwe Yomlomo lanikeza umboniso ocacileyo wokulungelelana kwegunya ngendlela elula: inkqubo ye-bipolar elawulwa yi-United States kunye neSoviet Union. Zombini imikhosi emikhulu yaqokelela izixhobo zenyukliya, yakha umanyano lwemikhosi (NATO neWarsaw Pact), yakhuphisana ukuze iphembelele kulo lonke ihlabathi. Imfundiso yokutshatyalaliswa kwendalo (MAD) yadala umlinganiselo oqinileyo kodwa ongaguquguqukiyo owathintela imfazwe engqalileyo phakathi kwamagunya amabini. Kodwa ungquzulwano eKorea, eVietnam, e-Afghanistan, nakwezinye iindawo yabonisa indlela ulungelelwano olunokukhuphiswa ngayo ngeevote ezivoti. Imfazwe yomlomo yaphela ngayo ngokuwa kweSoviet Union, ikhokelela kwixesha elifutshane lokungalawuleni kwe-Stapolance.

Iingcinga Ezingundoqo Zegunya

Isiseko sojikelezo sinceda ekuchazeni indlela esebenza ngayo kunye neziphumo zokulungelelanisa kwezobupolitika. Izikolo ezithathu eziphambili zengqiqo zilawula intetho:

Ubunyaniso: Umlo Ogqibeleleyo Wokusinda

Ubunyani, ingakumbi umahluko owaziwa ngokuba yisakhiwo okanye ubuncutshe obasungulwa nguKenneth Waltz, uthi inkqubo yehlabathi lonke iphelelwe lixesha — akukho rhulumente wehlabathi lonke wokunyanzelisa imithetho. Ngoko ke amazwe kufuneka axhomekeke kumandla awo okusinda. Kwinkqubo enjalo, achaza ulungelelwaniso oluzenzekelayo ngokuchasene nezisongelo, enoba ngokwakha amandla awo ngokwawo (ukulinganisela) okanye ngokwenza izivumelwano (ukulingana). Abaxhasi bendalo bakujonga ukulungelelana kwamandla njengohlobo oluziphindaphindayo, hayi ukhetho lwemithetho elawulayo. Amandla amakhulu ngabona aphambili, kwaye amandla awo amisela uzinzo oluthe kratya. Umlinganiselo wamandla uyakwazi ukumelana nokuzinza xa kukho amandla amabini amakhulu (ukutshintshatshintshatshintshatshintsha) okanye amandla amaninzi alinganayo (ukutshintshatshintshatshintshatshintshana) kunye nokutshintsha-ngqungquthelana.

Inkululeko: Intsebenziswano neziko

Ingcamango yolwalamano lwehlabathi lonke esekelwe kwiinkcubeko ezifana noImmanuel Kant noWoodrow Wilson, igxininisa ukuba ulungelelwano lwamandla lungancitshiswa ngokusebenzisana, umthetho wezizwe ngezizwe, kunye nezithethe zedemokhrasi. Amalayisensi aphikisa ukuba ukuxhomekeka kwezoqoqosho kunye nemilinganiselo eyabelanayo kunciphisa intshukumisa yogonyamelo. Imibutho yezizwe ngezizwe efana neZizwe ezimanyeneyo ilungiselela ulawulo lobugqeba kunye nesigqibo songquzulwano, ikwenza kube lula ukulawula amandla ngokutshintshana ngoxolo. Ngoxa abantu abavumile bengenakukhanyela ubunyani bezobupolitika, bakholelwa ukuba amaziko anokuguqula ukuziphatha okuzinzi aze adale umgaqo othe mhlaba wonke.

Ukwakha: Imbono, Isazi, NeeNorms

Abakhi baluphikisa uqikelelo lwezinto eziphathekayo lokungaphili-jiki kwendalo kunye nokuzivumelanisa. Baphikisa ngelithi ulungelelwano lwamandla asingomthetho wendalo kodwa luyiziphumo zokutshintsha kwezinto kodwa yayiyiziphumo zokutshintsha ngokwezinto eziphathekayo kodwa kwanokusasazeka kweengcamango zedemokhrasi nezobukhomfama. Umqondiso wokuba imbono yokuba ifanele ulungelelanise nezisongelo ze-hegemonic ngumgaqo-sithethe onokuthi utshintshe ngokuhamba kwexesha. Ukupheliswa kweMfazwe Yomlomo, ukuqulungela ukutshintsha kwezinto kodwa yayingeyo nje iziphumo zokutshintsha ngokwezinto kodwa ikwayiyo zokusasazeka kwedemokhrasi kunye neengcamango ezithelelanayo ezithenjiswe yiSoviet. I-odemokhstan: imibandela ethetha ukuba ayilungelelani kuphela nezisongelo zemfazwe kodwa ikwanokutshintsha iimbono okanye iinkcubangxube.

Iinkqubo Zangoku Zokulungelelanisa Kwamandla

IUnited States NeTshayina: Umbango Owona Mkhulu Wamandla

Ezona ziphambili ezikhoyo ngexesha lokulungelelana kwamandla lukhuphiswano phakathi kwe-United States neTshayina. Kumashumi amabini eminyaka adluleyo, ukukhula okukhawulezileyo kwezoqoqosho kunye nokusetyenziswa kwemikhosi yezomkhosi kuye kwatshintsha ukusasazeka kwehlabathi lonke. I-United States, ixesha elide i-inverpolar hegemon ekwingingqi ejongene nolutsha oluchasana nempembelelo yayo eAsia nangaphaya kweminye. Olu ngquzulwano lubonakala kwiinkxwaleko zezorhwebo, ezobugcisa, iziko zomkhosi, kunye neengxube-ebangxwaba kwilizwe laseMzantsi Mzantsi China. Abahlalubi abaninzi bachaza inkqubo ekhulayo njengenye ye-injini ehamba phambili ye-[injini] okanye entsha ye-bipolaverbiter . Iintlanga ezincinci kummandla, njengeJapan, i-Australia, kunye ne-Indiya, ziqinisa imizwano yazo kunye ne-U. Ngexesha lezoqoqosho ne-Tshayina.

IEuropean Union: Ukulungelelana Ngakumbi Nangaphandle Kwako

I-European Union ingumbandela onzima. KwiYurophu, i-EU ivelise inkqubo engaqhelekanga apho igunya lamalungu kunye namaziko ahlukeneyo ahlukeneyo, inciphisa ingxaki yokhuseleko lwesithethe. Ulungelelwaniso lwangaphakathi lwe-EU lugcinwa ngezivumelwano, ukudibana kwezoqoqosho, kunye nengxoxo yezopolitiko. Ngaphandle koko, i-EU isebenza njengegunya elilawula ukhuseleko elikhuthaza ubuzwe obuninzi kunye nolawulo lweziko-mazwe. Noko ke, iingxaki zakutshanje — ezifana neBrexit, ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine, nokunyuka kobuhlanga be-populist — ziye zavavanya amandla e-EU yokulondoloza umanyano olumanyeneyo. I-NATO ihlala iyintlangano ephambili yokhuseleko yeYurophu, kodwa i-EU iphuhlis amandla ayo omkhosi. Le protrolitiki ibonakalisa umlinganiselo olungeleneyo womanyano lwamandla odibanisayo kunye nolwano oluthambileyo.

Iingxabano zommandla kunye nokutshintsha kolawulo

Ngapha koko, amandla asebenza kwimimandla emininzi:

  • Impuma: Ungquzulwano phakathi kwe Saudi Arabia neIran — enye i-Sunni methom, enye i Shia ulawulo lobuthixo lwekhompyutha enegunya lomntu onegunya eYemen, Syria, Iraq, neLebhanon. Amazwe amancinci asoloko ehambelana kwicala elinye okanye afune ulungelelwano phakathi kwawo.
  • Ezase-Asia: i-Indiya kunye nemfazwe ende ekwi Pakistan ekwiKashmir ngukhuphiswano oluqhelekileyo lwamandla, oludityaniswe ngezixhobo zenyukliya. Ukwanda kwezoqoqosho kunye nolwalamano olusondeleyo ne-U.S. kuphinda kubekwe umlinganiselo wengingqi.
  • IMpuma Asia: inkqubo yenyukliya yasemntla Korea lucelomngeni olucacileyo kulungelelwaniso olukhoyo, luqhubela kwintshukumo yokulungelelanisa iimeko ukusuka kuMzantsi Korea, eJapan, nase United States.
  • Afrika: I-Afrikaan Union kunye noluntu lwengingqi lwezoqoqosho njenge-ECOWAS zisebenza ukusingatha ukungaguquguquki, kodwa ukungalingani kwamandla phakathi kwamazwe — afana phakathi kweNigeria nabamelwane bayo — kudala inkxwaleko eqhubekayo.

Indima Yemibutho Yezizwe Ngezizwe

Imibutho yezizwe ngezizwe isebenza njengendawo apho igunya lixolelwaniswa khona, lilungelelaniswe kwaye maxa wambi liyinkqubo yonxibelelwano, ukhuseleko olumanyeneyo, kunye nesigqibo esithintela ukungalungelelani ekuguquleni ingxabano esobala.

IZizwe Ezimanyeneyo

IBhunga loKhuseleko leZizwe Ezimanyeneyo, namalungu alo amahlanu asisigxina asebenzisa igunya, ngokwalo ayimbonakaliso yolungelelwano lwasemva kwemfazwe yehlabathi II lwamandla. Ngelixesha abagxeki bephikisayo ukuba le sakhiwo siphelelwe lixesha, i-UN ihlala iyindawo ebalulekileyo ekuxubusheni imiba yokhuseleko kunye nokugunyazisa iinkonzo zokugcina uxolo. I-UN ikwanendima ekulwakheni imigaqo-siseko, njengakulo tyala lokukhusela (R2P), elizama ukulungelelanisa ulawulo lukarhulumente nongenelelo loluntu.

NATO noKhuselo oluQuqelayo

I-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ngumbutho womkhosi odibanisa ulungelelwano lwamandla ngokukhusela i-onke. Ifumene ukulwa iSoviet Union, iNATO yazingisa emva kwemfazwe yomlomo yaza yanweba ngaseMpuma, ifumana inkcaso evela eRashiya. Isivumelwano sokhuselo somanyano sithintela ukuhlasela ngokuhlasela naliphi na ilungu elithintelweyo. Ubukho buka-NATO kwiMpuma Yurophu, kuquka imikhosi ejikelezayo kunye nenkqubo yokuzikhusela ngezixhobo ezitshuliweyo, ngumzekelo ocacileyo wokuzikhusela nxamnye nesisongelo esivela eRashiya.

Ezinye Iintlangano

Imibutho yengingqi enjenge-Afrikaan Union, i-Astyle Nations (ASAN), kunye ne-Ungano yaseMerika (OAS) inceda ukuncokola kunye nolawulo lwemfazwe. Iintlangano zezoqoqosho ezinjengeWorld Trade Organization (WTO) kunye neInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) zikwachaphazela amandla ngokumisela imithetho yezorhwebo nezemali.

Iingxaki Zokuba Negunya

Ngaphandle kwembali ende, ulungelelwano lwamandla lujongene nemiqobo ebalulekileyo kwinkulungwane yama-21. Abadlali abatsha nemicimbi yomhlaba wonke itshabalalisa imodeli yenkulungwane karhulumente apho ixhomekeke khona.

Amagunya Akhulayo Nokuguquguquka Kwemizimba

Ukukhula kwezoqoqosho ezikhulayo zaseTshayina, eIndiya, eBrazil, kunye nezinye ezikhulayo kudala ulawulo lwehlabathi olunemiba emininzi. Nangona ukuntsonkotha kwemibala emininzi kunokuzinzisa ingcamango, kwakhona kwandisa inani lezixhobo ezinokuvela. Unxulumano phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu amaninzi — i-U.S., iTshayina, iRashiya, i-Indiya, kwaye mhlawumbi neYurophu evuselelweyo — lufuna ulawulo oluntsonkothileyo lwezobuzwelomelo. Igunya ngalinye linomdla walo, kwaye imbono ephosakeleyo isenokukhokelela ekubeni lingasetyenziswa.

AbaLawuli beQumrhu

Amaqela amaphekula anjenge-Al-Qaeda kunye ne-ISIS, amagrogrisi azwenibanzi, kunye nemibutho yamazwe ngamazwe isebenzisa amandla angalungelelani kakuhle kwisakhiwo esisekelwe kumandla karhulumente. Aba badlali abangengawo amakhaya bangaphazamisa uzinzo ngobuchule bombane, uhlaselo lwe-ibhrashi, okanye uphatho lwezoqoqosho. Urhulumente ojongene nesongelo sabagrogrisi asenokungakwazi ukumelana nalo ngendlela efanayo. Imfazwe yoloyiko, umzekelo, ibandakanya ukungenelela komkhosi okutshintsha umlinganiselo wengingqi ngendlela engadibaniselwanga.

Iingxaki Zehlabathi: Imozulu Iyatshintsha Yaye Itshintsha

Ucelomngeni olufana nokutshintsha kwemozulu, iindyikitya zokuhlasela kwemida kunye nokukhuselwa kwekhompyutha kufunwa intsebenziswano kunokukhuphiswano. Indlela ye-zero-sum-amandla ayilungelelani kakuhle ukusingatha ezi ngxaki. Ukunciphisa imfuno yokukhutshwa kwekharbon kufune ukuba zonke iimpomposiso zekharbon zisebenze kunye; ukuba omnye urhulumente uzama ukufumana ungenelo lokhuphiswano ngokuphepha inyathelo, umgudu wehlabathi lonke uyangaphumeleli. Ngokufanayo, i-COVID-19 kaneldable ibonisa ukuba ukhuseleko lwempilo lulungile kwiqela. Imibutho yezizwe ngezizwe efana neWorld Health Organization (WHO) izama ukunxibelelana, kodwa isoloko iphazanyiswa zizixhobo ezilwayo.

Ukwanda kwemijelo yenyukliya kunye nobugcisa obutsha

Izixhobo zenyukliya zenza ulungelelwano lwamandla ngokunika kwanemimandla emincinci ngesixhobo esinokuthintela. Ukusasazeka kobugcisa benyukliya kuMntla Korea, eIran (ekuphuhlisweni), kunye nezinye ezinokubakho zinokuphazamisa ulungelelwano lwengingqi. Ubugcisa obutsha obufana nezixhobo ezijulwayo ezigqithisileyo, ubuchule obungeyonyani, kunye nezixhobo zekhompyutha zitshintsha ubalo lwamandla. Isantya kunye nokungacimi ukuhlasela kwekhompyutha kwenza kube nzima ukugcina umlinganiselo ozinzileyo, njengokuba kunzima ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zobugcisa ezisetyenziswayo, ubuchule obungeyo kunye nezobugcisa bekhompyutha zitshintsha umlinganiselo wokubala amandla. Isantya kunye nokungaqiniseki kohlaselo lwekhompyutha kunokwenza ngokukhawuleza.

Isiphelo: Isizathu Sokuba Kubekho Ukulungelelana Kwamandla Namhlanje

Ulungelelwano lwamandla lusasoloko lusisixhobo esibalulekileyo sokuqonda ulwalamano lwezizwe ngezizwe. Inceda kucacisa isizathu sokuba kubekho izivumelwano, isizathu sokuba iimfazwe ziqale, nesizathu sokuba kubekho uxolo ngamaxesha athile. Kubafundisi-lwazi nabafundi, ukufunda ngolungelelwano lwamandla kunika isiseko sokuchaza iziganeko zembali kunye nemicimbi yangoku. Enoba kuhlolisiswa ukuphikisana phakathi kwe-United States neTshayina, indaleko ye-European Union, okanye isiphithiphithiphithi seMpuma ephakathi, ingcamango yokulinganisela inika ingqiqo kwiintshukumisa nezenzo zamazwe.

Noko ke, ulungelelwano lwamandla asisiso isisombululo esigqibeleleyo. Kufuneka uhlengahlengiso oluqhubekayo, uthungelwano, nokuvuma ukulalanisa. Kwihlabathi lezixhobo zenyukliya, abadlali abangengomazwe, kunye neengxaki zomhlaba wonke, imodeli yesithethe kufuneka yongezelelwe ngeendlela ezintsha ezigxininisa intsebenziswano, umthetho wezizwe ngezizwe, kunye nesenzo somanyano. Injongo ayikokulinganisela amandla kodwa kulawule nje ngobulumko. Ngokuqonda ulungelelwaniso lwamandla — imbali yayo, iingcamango, kunye nobunzima bale mihla — sixhotyiselwa ngcono ukuba sinikele kwintsebenziswano elungeleleneyo nenolungelelanisayo.